clock menu more-arrow no yes
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Sometimes college football hands you your ass, but this was about as strong an ass-handing as I can remember.

  • Week 1: 20-17 (54%)
  • Week 2: 25-26 (49%)
  • Week 3: 28-23-1 (55%)
  • Week 4: 29-21-2 (57%)
  • Week 5: 27-28 (49%)
  • Week 6: 27-28 (49%)
  • Week 7: 20-36 (36%)
  • OVERALL: 176-179-3 (50%)

So after jumping out pretty hot through four weeks, I've had two meh weeks and a holy-crap-bad week. Not surprisingly, there were some pretty strong shifts in the rankings this week. We'll see if that rectifies matters ... or if it just makes everything worse. Most of the picks below pass my eyeball test, at least ... though they may have last week, too.

Win probabilities

Win Prob. Range Last Week Overall Win%
50-59% 4-12 34-37 47.9%
60-69% 9-6 66-25 72.5%
70-79% 12-4 78-14 84.8%
80-89% 2-2 77-17 81.9%
90-99% 6-0 111-3 97.4%

If there's good news from the ass-handing, it's that most of the unsuccessful games were the ones that were projected super-close. I didn't suddenly have a ton of teams losing with over 90% win probabilities. The 80-89% range is a smidge lower than I'd like it to be, but that's countered by the 60-79% range being quite a bit higher. In all, though, the bad results were in the tossups. I've been saying all year that, because of the way I use these numbers (win projections and ratings that require just enough legitimacy from the picks that you know you can take the situational stuff seriously), if I'm above 50% against the spread, and the win probabilities are locked in, I'm happy. After last week, we're suddenly slightly below the mark in the former, but the latter's good. Now I'm nervous about Week 8. We'll see.

Tuesday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
8:00 PM ESPN2 UL-Lafayette at Arkansas State -6 Arkansas State (31.9-26.3) 5.6 62.6% UL-Lafayette

Thursday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
7:00 PM ESPN2 Temple at East Carolina -2.5 Temple (29.2-22.9) 6.3 64.2% Temple
7:30 PM ESPNU Georgia Southern at Appalachian State -6.5 Appalachian State (33.5-25.3) 8.3 68.4% Appalachian State
9:00 PM ESPN California at UCLA -3 UCLA (33.5-29.4) 4.1 59.5% UCLA

Friday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
8:00 PM ESPN Memphis at Tulsa +10.5 Memphis (38.1-30.1) 8.0 67.8% Tulsa
10:30 PM ESPN2 Utah State at San Diego State +5 Utah State (24.1-20.9) 3.2 57.4% San Diego State

Saturday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
12:00 PM ABC Clemson at Miami-FL +7 Clemson (35.4-20.7) 14.7 80.2% Clemson
12:00 PM ESPN Iowa State at Baylor -37 Baylor (48.7-23.7) 25.0 92.6% Iowa State
12:00 PM ESPN2 Northwestern at Nebraska -7.5 Nebraska (27.2-21.6) 5.6 62.8% Northwestern
12:00 PM ESPN3 NC State at Wake Forest +9.5 NC State (32.1-21.6) 10.4 72.7% NC State
12:00 PM ESPNN Houston at Central Florida +21.5 Houston (38.9-14.6) 24.3 92.0% Houston
12:00 PM ESPNU Pittsburgh at Syracuse +7 Pittsburgh (29.4-25.0) 4.4 60.0% Syracuse
12:00 PM FS1 Kansas State at Texas -4 Kansas State (29.2-26.8) 2.4 55.6% Kansas State
12:00 PM SECN Auburn at Arkansas -6 Arkansas (39.3-24.3) 15.0 80.7% Arkansas
12:00 PM ASN Southern Miss at Charlotte +15.5 Southern Miss (31.6-19.9) 11.8 75.2% Charlotte
12:00 PM FSN affiliates Army at Rice -9.5 Rice (32.5-31.7) 0.8 51.7% Army
12:30 PM ESPN3 Boston College at Louisville -7.5 Louisville (20.6-19.6) 1.0 52.3% Boston College
1:00 PM CBSSN Tulane at Navy -23.5 Navy (42.9-11.3) 31.6 96.6% Navy
1:00 PM ESPN3 Bowling Green at Kent State +14.5 Bowling Green (29.8-20.2) 9.6 71.0% Kent State
2:00 PM ESPN3 Fresno State at Air Force -17.5 Air Force (36.7-19.2) 17.4 84.3% Fresno State
2:00 PM ESPN3 Miami-OH at Western Michigan -25.5 Western Michigan (41.7-18.1) 23.6 91.4% Miami-OH
3:00 PM ESPN3 Central Michigan at Ball State +7.5 Central Michigan (32.6-27.3) 5.3 62.0% Ball State
3:00 PM ESPN3 Toledo at Massachusetts +14.5 Toledo (36.4-19.5) 16.9 83.5% Toledo
3:00 PM BYUtv Wagner at BYU BYU (51.3-5.2) 46.1 99.6%
3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Indiana at Michigan State -16.5 Michigan State (38.8-26.0) 12.8 77.0% Indiana
3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Texas Tech at Oklahoma -14 Oklahoma (43.7-28.1) 15.6 81.6% Oklahoma
3:30 PM BTN Wisconsin at Illinois +6.5 Illinois (22.6-21.1) 1.4 53.3% Illinois
3:30 PM CBS Tennessee at Alabama -15.5 Alabama (34.0-17.6) 16.4 82.9% Alabama
3:30 PM ESPN Maryland vs. Penn State -6.5 Penn State (33.1-18.4) 14.6 80.1% Penn State
3:30 PM ESPN3 Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois -28 Northern Illinois (38.6-22.0) 16.6 83.2% Eastern Michigan
3:30 PM ESPN3 Ohio at Buffalo +3 Ohio (33.8-24.3) 9.6 71.0% Ohio
3:30 PM ESPN3 Virginia at North Carolina -17.5 North Carolina (40.5-23.3) 17.2 84.0% Virginia
3:30 PM ESPNU Duke at Virginia Tech -2.5 Duke (25.6-17.7) 7.8 67.5% Duke
3:30 PM FS1 Kansas at Oklahoma State -33.5 Oklahoma State (47.3-13.4) 33.9 97.5% Oklahoma State
3:30 PM ASN Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech -7.5 Louisiana Tech (35.9-25.8) 10.0 71.9% Louisiana Tech
3:30 PM FSN affiliates North Texas at Marshall -29 Marshall (48.4-6.9) 41.5 99.2% Marshall
4:00 PM ESPNN SMU at South Florida -11.5 South Florida (41.0-24.2) 16.8 83.4% South Florida
4:00 PM Pac-12 Washington State at Arizona -7.5 Arizona (35.3-33.2) 2.1 54.8% Washington State
4:00 PM SECN Missouri at Vanderbilt +2.5 Vanderbilt (21.7-17.5) 4.2 59.6% Vanderbilt
4:00 PM MWC Video Hawaii at Nevada -7 Nevada (32.5-22.3) 10.2 72.2% Nevada
4:30 PM CBSSN Connecticut at Cincinnati -12.5 Cincinnati (33.3-26.1) 7.2 66.2% Connecticut
5:00 PM ESPN3 UL-Monroe at Idaho -1.5 Idaho (32.3-29.2) 3.0 57.0% Idaho
6:00 PM $Video Old Dominion at Florida International -12.5 Florida International (30.4-21.4) 9.0 69.8% Old Dominion
7:00 PM ESPN Texas A&M at Ole Miss -6 Ole Miss (34.3-26.0) 8.2 68.3% Ole Miss
7:00 PM ESPN2 Florida State at Georgia Tech +6.5 Florida State (34.8-25.8) 9.1 70.0% Florida State
7:00 PM ESPN3 South Alabama at Texas State -3.5 Texas State (35.5-31.8) 3.6 58.4% Texas State
7:00 PM ESPNU Western Kentucky at LSU -17 LSU (38.1-30.1) 8.0 67.8% Western Kentucky
7:00 PM ASN Florida Atlantic at UTEP +6 Florida Atlantic (38.6-19.9) 18.6 85.9% Florida Atlantic
7:00 PM RSNW New Mexico at San Jose State -7.5 San Jose State (31.5-25.4) 6.1 63.9% New Mexico
7:30 PM Fox Utah at USC -3.5 USC (33.1-27.5) 5.6 62.7% USC
7:30 PM SECN Kentucky at Mississippi State -11.5 Mississippi State (37.1-22.5) 14.6 80.0% Mississippi State
8:00 PM ABC Ohio State at Rutgers +21 Ohio State (42.0-19.5) 22.5 90.3% Ohio State
8:00 PM ESPN3 Troy at New Mexico State New Mexico State (30.7-30.4) 0.3 50.7% ?
10:15 PM ESPN2 Wyoming at Boise State -35 Boise State (41.1-13.9) 27.1 94.2% Wyoming
10:30 PM ESPN Washington at Stanford Stanford (33.0-21.2) 11.8 75.2% ?
10:30 PM Pac-12 Colorado at Oregon State -2 Oregon State (28.8-28.5) 0.3 50.7% Colorado