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In simulating 10 years to get an idea for how the new S&P+ performed against the spread, I ran into a small handful of 35% weeks. Wk 7: 36%.
— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) October 18, 2015
Sometimes college football hands you your ass, but this was about as strong an ass-handing as I can remember.
- Week 1: 20-17 (54%)
- Week 2: 25-26 (49%)
- Week 3: 28-23-1 (55%)
- Week 4: 29-21-2 (57%)
- Week 5: 27-28 (49%)
- Week 6: 27-28 (49%)
- Week 7: 20-36 (36%)
- OVERALL: 176-179-3 (50%)
So after jumping out pretty hot through four weeks, I've had two meh weeks and a holy-crap-bad week. Not surprisingly, there were some pretty strong shifts in the rankings this week. We'll see if that rectifies matters ... or if it just makes everything worse. Most of the picks below pass my eyeball test, at least ... though they may have last week, too.
Win probabilities
| Win Prob. Range | Last Week | Overall | Win% |
| 50-59% | 4-12 | 34-37 | 47.9% |
| 60-69% | 9-6 | 66-25 | 72.5% |
| 70-79% | 12-4 | 78-14 | 84.8% |
| 80-89% | 2-2 | 77-17 | 81.9% |
| 90-99% | 6-0 | 111-3 | 97.4% |
If there's good news from the ass-handing, it's that most of the unsuccessful games were the ones that were projected super-close. I didn't suddenly have a ton of teams losing with over 90% win probabilities. The 80-89% range is a smidge lower than I'd like it to be, but that's countered by the 60-79% range being quite a bit higher. In all, though, the bad results were in the tossups. I've been saying all year that, because of the way I use these numbers (win projections and ratings that require just enough legitimacy from the picks that you know you can take the situational stuff seriously), if I'm above 50% against the spread, and the win probabilities are locked in, I'm happy. After last week, we're suddenly slightly below the mark in the former, but the latter's good. Now I'm nervous about Week 8. We'll see.
Tuesday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 8:00 PM | ESPN2 | UL-Lafayette at Arkansas State | -6 | Arkansas State (31.9-26.3) | 5.6 | 62.6% | UL-Lafayette |
Thursday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | Temple at East Carolina | -2.5 | Temple (29.2-22.9) | 6.3 | 64.2% | Temple |
| 7:30 PM | ESPNU | Georgia Southern at Appalachian State | -6.5 | Appalachian State (33.5-25.3) | 8.3 | 68.4% | Appalachian State |
| 9:00 PM | ESPN | California at UCLA | -3 | UCLA (33.5-29.4) | 4.1 | 59.5% | UCLA |
Friday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 8:00 PM | ESPN | Memphis at Tulsa | +10.5 | Memphis (38.1-30.1) | 8.0 | 67.8% | Tulsa |
| 10:30 PM | ESPN2 | Utah State at San Diego State | +5 | Utah State (24.1-20.9) | 3.2 | 57.4% | San Diego State |
Saturday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 12:00 PM | ABC | Clemson at Miami-FL | +7 | Clemson (35.4-20.7) | 14.7 | 80.2% | Clemson |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN | Iowa State at Baylor | -37 | Baylor (48.7-23.7) | 25.0 | 92.6% | Iowa State |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Northwestern at Nebraska | -7.5 | Nebraska (27.2-21.6) | 5.6 | 62.8% | Northwestern |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | NC State at Wake Forest | +9.5 | NC State (32.1-21.6) | 10.4 | 72.7% | NC State |
| 12:00 PM | ESPNN | Houston at Central Florida | +21.5 | Houston (38.9-14.6) | 24.3 | 92.0% | Houston |
| 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Pittsburgh at Syracuse | +7 | Pittsburgh (29.4-25.0) | 4.4 | 60.0% | Syracuse |
| 12:00 PM | FS1 | Kansas State at Texas | -4 | Kansas State (29.2-26.8) | 2.4 | 55.6% | Kansas State |
| 12:00 PM | SECN | Auburn at Arkansas | -6 | Arkansas (39.3-24.3) | 15.0 | 80.7% | Arkansas |
| 12:00 PM | ASN | Southern Miss at Charlotte | +15.5 | Southern Miss (31.6-19.9) | 11.8 | 75.2% | Charlotte |
| 12:00 PM | FSN affiliates | Army at Rice | -9.5 | Rice (32.5-31.7) | 0.8 | 51.7% | Army |
| 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Boston College at Louisville | -7.5 | Louisville (20.6-19.6) | 1.0 | 52.3% | Boston College |
| 1:00 PM | CBSSN | Tulane at Navy | -23.5 | Navy (42.9-11.3) | 31.6 | 96.6% | Navy |
| 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Bowling Green at Kent State | +14.5 | Bowling Green (29.8-20.2) | 9.6 | 71.0% | Kent State |
| 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Fresno State at Air Force | -17.5 | Air Force (36.7-19.2) | 17.4 | 84.3% | Fresno State |
| 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Miami-OH at Western Michigan | -25.5 | Western Michigan (41.7-18.1) | 23.6 | 91.4% | Miami-OH |
| 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Central Michigan at Ball State | +7.5 | Central Michigan (32.6-27.3) | 5.3 | 62.0% | Ball State |
| 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Toledo at Massachusetts | +14.5 | Toledo (36.4-19.5) | 16.9 | 83.5% | Toledo |
| 3:00 PM | BYUtv | Wagner at BYU | BYU (51.3-5.2) | 46.1 | 99.6% | ||
| 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Indiana at Michigan State | -16.5 | Michigan State (38.8-26.0) | 12.8 | 77.0% | Indiana |
| 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Texas Tech at Oklahoma | -14 | Oklahoma (43.7-28.1) | 15.6 | 81.6% | Oklahoma |
| 3:30 PM | BTN | Wisconsin at Illinois | +6.5 | Illinois (22.6-21.1) | 1.4 | 53.3% | Illinois |
| 3:30 PM | CBS | Tennessee at Alabama | -15.5 | Alabama (34.0-17.6) | 16.4 | 82.9% | Alabama |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN | Maryland vs. Penn State | -6.5 | Penn State (33.1-18.4) | 14.6 | 80.1% | Penn State |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois | -28 | Northern Illinois (38.6-22.0) | 16.6 | 83.2% | Eastern Michigan |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Ohio at Buffalo | +3 | Ohio (33.8-24.3) | 9.6 | 71.0% | Ohio |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Virginia at North Carolina | -17.5 | North Carolina (40.5-23.3) | 17.2 | 84.0% | Virginia |
| 3:30 PM | ESPNU | Duke at Virginia Tech | -2.5 | Duke (25.6-17.7) | 7.8 | 67.5% | Duke |
| 3:30 PM | FS1 | Kansas at Oklahoma State | -33.5 | Oklahoma State (47.3-13.4) | 33.9 | 97.5% | Oklahoma State |
| 3:30 PM | ASN | Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech | -7.5 | Louisiana Tech (35.9-25.8) | 10.0 | 71.9% | Louisiana Tech |
| 3:30 PM | FSN affiliates | North Texas at Marshall | -29 | Marshall (48.4-6.9) | 41.5 | 99.2% | Marshall |
| 4:00 PM | ESPNN | SMU at South Florida | -11.5 | South Florida (41.0-24.2) | 16.8 | 83.4% | South Florida |
| 4:00 PM | Pac-12 | Washington State at Arizona | -7.5 | Arizona (35.3-33.2) | 2.1 | 54.8% | Washington State |
| 4:00 PM | SECN | Missouri at Vanderbilt | +2.5 | Vanderbilt (21.7-17.5) | 4.2 | 59.6% | Vanderbilt |
| 4:00 PM | MWC Video | Hawaii at Nevada | -7 | Nevada (32.5-22.3) | 10.2 | 72.2% | Nevada |
| 4:30 PM | CBSSN | Connecticut at Cincinnati | -12.5 | Cincinnati (33.3-26.1) | 7.2 | 66.2% | Connecticut |
| 5:00 PM | ESPN3 | UL-Monroe at Idaho | -1.5 | Idaho (32.3-29.2) | 3.0 | 57.0% | Idaho |
| 6:00 PM | $Video | Old Dominion at Florida International | -12.5 | Florida International (30.4-21.4) | 9.0 | 69.8% | Old Dominion |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN | Texas A&M at Ole Miss | -6 | Ole Miss (34.3-26.0) | 8.2 | 68.3% | Ole Miss |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | Florida State at Georgia Tech | +6.5 | Florida State (34.8-25.8) | 9.1 | 70.0% | Florida State |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | South Alabama at Texas State | -3.5 | Texas State (35.5-31.8) | 3.6 | 58.4% | Texas State |
| 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Western Kentucky at LSU | -17 | LSU (38.1-30.1) | 8.0 | 67.8% | Western Kentucky |
| 7:00 PM | ASN | Florida Atlantic at UTEP | +6 | Florida Atlantic (38.6-19.9) | 18.6 | 85.9% | Florida Atlantic |
| 7:00 PM | RSNW | New Mexico at San Jose State | -7.5 | San Jose State (31.5-25.4) | 6.1 | 63.9% | New Mexico |
| 7:30 PM | Fox | Utah at USC | -3.5 | USC (33.1-27.5) | 5.6 | 62.7% | USC |
| 7:30 PM | SECN | Kentucky at Mississippi State | -11.5 | Mississippi State (37.1-22.5) | 14.6 | 80.0% | Mississippi State |
| 8:00 PM | ABC | Ohio State at Rutgers | +21 | Ohio State (42.0-19.5) | 22.5 | 90.3% | Ohio State |
| 8:00 PM | ESPN3 | Troy at New Mexico State | New Mexico State (30.7-30.4) | 0.3 | 50.7% | ? | |
| 10:15 PM | ESPN2 | Wyoming at Boise State | -35 | Boise State (41.1-13.9) | 27.1 | 94.2% | Wyoming |
| 10:30 PM | ESPN | Washington at Stanford | Stanford (33.0-21.2) | 11.8 | 75.2% | ? | |
| 10:30 PM | Pac-12 | Colorado at Oregon State | -2 | Oregon State (28.8-28.5) | 0.3 | 50.7% | Colorado |
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