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Florida State 41, Louisville 21: Second-half surge does the job

Glenn Beil-USA TODAY Sports

fsuulwp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Predicted WP

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

108

Florida State

3

5

70

3

Everett Golson Pass to Kermit Whitfield for 70, TOUCHDOWN

0.504

0.253

2

42

Florida State

3

26

71

1

Everett Golson Pass to Kermit Whitfield for 14

0.335

0.177

3

92

Florida State

1

10

54

3

Dalvin Cook Rush for 54, TOUCHDOWN

0.588

0.149

4

86

Louisville

1

10

47

2

Lamar Jackson Rush for -2

0.422

0.133

5

35

Louisville

1

10

66

1

Lamar Jackson Pass to James Quick for 48, FIRST DOWN

0.618

-0.117

Florida State 41, Louisville 21

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Florida State Louisville Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 71 65
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 86.0%
Avg Starting FP 28.3 23.2 29.6
Possessions 11 12
Scoring Opportunities*
7 3
Points Per Opportunity 5.86 7.00 4.77
Leverage Rate** 64.7% 63.3% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.683 0.578 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Florida State Louisville
Total 47.6 35.7
Rushing 13.9 9.7
Passing 33.7 26.0
Success Rate (what's this?) Florida State Louisville Nat'l Avg
All (close) 52.9% 36.7% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 50.0% 38.1% 42.4%
Passing (close) 55.0% 35.7% 40.7%
Standard Downs 54.6% 32.3% 47.1%
Passing Downs 50.0% 44.4% 29.9%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Florida State Louisville Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.30 1.42 1.27
Rushing (close) 0.97 1.03 1.08
Passing (close) 1.51 1.73 1.47
Standard Downs 0.96 1.42 1.11
Passing Downs 1.98 1.42 1.79
Line Stats Florida State Louisville Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.42 3.83 2.85
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 17.7% 5.0%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 10.0% 18.2% 7.3%
Turnovers Florida State Louisville
Turnovers 0 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 4.7
Turnover Margin Florida State +2
Exp. TO Margin Florida State +0.88
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Florida State +1.12
TO Points Margin Florida State +4.7 points
Situational Florida State Louisville
Q1 S&P 0.573 0.656
Q2 S&P 0.487 0.484
Q3 S&P 0.908 0.582
Q4 S&P 0.640 0.637
1st Down S&P 0.693 0.537
2nd Down S&P 0.626 0.605
3rd Down S&P 0.554 0.618
Projected Scoring Margin: Florida State by 16.6
Actual Scoring Margin: Florida State by 20

I would say those per-quarter numbers tell the story. FSU's offense was a dud in the first half and awesome in the second.