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Week 4 S&P+ picks

Yes, S&P+.

Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

So ... funny story. When I was redesigning S&P+ last winter, I set up my picks spreadsheet to point at S&P+ instead of F/+ (which is the combined S&P+ and FEI) so that I could test how the new number was doing in that regard. The week before the season began, as it was time to make the Week 1 picks, I dusted off those spreadsheets and gave them a quick perusal, and everything looked right. So I started in. Only ... the VLOOKUPs were still pointed at S&P+ and not F/+. And it took me three weeks to realize it. So what I've been calling F/+ picks for the first three weeks were actually picks generated from only my number, not mine and Fremeau's.

Good thing I don't advocate these for gambling purposes, huh?

So now that I've realized it, I'm going to try to do something about it. But I never leave myself enough time to actually do anything in timely fashion, so I haven't gotten it yet. So ... ladies and gentlemen, your S&P+ picks for Week 4. I really need a keeper.

So how has S&P+ done so far this year?

  • Week 1: 20-17 (54%)
  • Week 2: 25-26 (49%)
  • Week 3: 28-23-1 (55%)
  • OVERALL: 73-66-1 (53%)

I'll take it. As I've said before, I post these picks for validation. Since I don't really have the capability of showing everything under the S&P+ hood (and few would have interest in looking that far under the hood to begin with), I post these picks as proof that the numbers I use for analysis purposes are good enough to use. Over 50% against the spread? Win probabilities working out as they should? Then I'm happy. (This means that, when I do get the F/+ picks squared away, I'll run the picks for the first weeks of the season, too, so I can make sure they're performing as they should.)

Win probabilities

How are the win probabilities working out? Still a little too well, honestly, but that's probably because the FCS picks seem to have been quite a bit more in-line this year. Well ... with one exception. Congrats to UCF for becoming the first team with a 90%+ chance of winning ... to not win. Gotta watch out for those Furman Paladins.

Win Prob. Range Last Week Overall Win%
50-59% 3-4 15-12 55.6%
60-69% 11-6 31-8 79.5%
70-79% 9-0 34-5 87.2%
80-89% 12-2 49-7 87.5%
90-99% 21-1 68-1 98.6%

As the FCS games cycle off of the calendar (until the SEC's SoCon Saturday, anyway), I would assume we'll see an evening out of those games in the 70-99% range. The evening out for 60-69% began last week, I think. If your percentages are going to be off, you want it to be in the "too good" range, but hopefully this still evens out. I use win probabilities for projecting conference races and whatnot, so I need those to fall in line to feel good about those posts.

Thursday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
7:30 PM ESPN Cincinnati at Memphis -10 Memphis (37.4-28.9) 8.5 68.8% Cincinnati

(No, the numbers haven't noticed that Gunner Kiel is doubtful to play tonight.)

Friday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
8:00 PM ESPN Boise State at Virginia +3 Boise State (33.4-22.0) 11.4 74.5% Boise State
10:00 PM FS1 Stanford at Oregon State +15.5 Stanford (31.6-14.3) 17.3 84.2% Stanford

Saturday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
12:00 PM BTN Bowling Green at Purdue +2 Purdue (32.7-32.2) 0.6 51.3% Purdue
12:00 PM ABC BYU at Michigan -5 Michigan (29.4-22.5) 6.9 65.6% Michigan
12:00 PM ESPNU Central Florida at South Carolina -15 South Carolina (37.7-16.8) 20.9 88.6% South Carolina
12:00 PM BTN Central Michigan at Michigan State -27 Michigan State (43.0-15.9) 27.0 94.1% Michigan State
12:00 PM SECN Southern U. at Georgia Georgia (56.2-0.6) 55.6 99.9%
12:00 PM ESPN2 Georgia Tech at Duke +8.5 Georgia Tech (25.6-23.0) 2.7 56.1% Duke
12:00 PM BTN Kansas at Rutgers -13 Rutgers (41.3-28.1) 13.2 77.7% Rutgers
12:00 PM ESPN LSU at Syracuse +25 LSU (37.9-20.4) 17.6 84.5% Syracuse
12:00 PM CBSSN Navy at Connecticut +7 Navy (33.2-22.4) 10.8 73.4% Navy
12:00 PM ESPNN Southern Miss at Nebraska -22 Nebraska (45.9-21.4) 24.4 92.1% Nebraska
12:30 PM ESPN3 Delaware at North Carolina North Carolina (46.0-9.6) 36.4 98.2%
12:30 PM ESPN3 Indiana at Wake Forest +3.5 Wake Forest (35.6-32.6) 3.0 56.9% Wake Forest
1:00 PM ESPN3 Northern Illinois at Boston College -4.5 Boston College (26.6-14.8) 11.8 75.2% Boston College
1:30 PM Pac-12 Nicholls State at Colorado Colorado (46.2-4.7) 41.5 99.2%
2:30 PM Florida International at Louisiana Tech -14.5 Louisiana Tech (38.7-19.6) 19.0 86.5% Louisiana Tech
3:00 PM New Mexico at Wyoming +3 New Mexico (31.9-25.6) 6.3 64.3% New Mexico
3:00 PM FS1 Maryland at West Virginia -17 West Virginia (39.7-16.8) 22.9 90.7% West Virginia
3:00 PM Rice at Baylor -35 Baylor (51.9-21.0) 30.9 96.3% Rice
3:30 PM Appalachian State at Old Dominion +7.5 Appalachian State (29.4-24.7) 4.7 60.7% Old Dominion
3:30 PM NBC Massachusetts at Notre Dame -29 Notre Dame (50.1-11.4) 38.7 98.7% Notre Dame
3:30 PM ESPNU North Texas at Iowa -24.5 Iowa (43.5-10.8) 32.7 97.1% Iowa
3:30 PM BTN Ohio at Minnesota -10.5 Minnesota (32.5-16.5) 16.0 82.2% Minnesota
3:30 PM ESPN Oklahoma State at Texas +3.5 Texas (34.3-31.5) 2.8 56.3% Texas
3:30 PM CBS Tennessee at Florida -1.5 Tennessee (26.2-25.1) 1.1 52.5% Tennessee
3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Virginia Tech at East Carolina +8.5 Virginia Tech (36.6-24.3) 12.3 76.1% Virginia Tech
3:30 PM ESPN3 Marshall at Kent State +7 Marshall (22.0-8.9) 13.2 77.7% Marshall
3:30 PM CBSSN Miami-OH at Western Kentucky -20.5 Western Kentucky (41.1-19.0) 22.1 89.9% Western Kentucky
3:30 PM ESPN3 Nevada at Buffalo -1 Nevada (28.3-27.5) 0.8 51.8% Nevada
3:30 PM BTN San Diego State at Penn State -15 Penn State (32.0-14.5) 17.4 84.3% Penn State
3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Western Michigan at Ohio State -31.5 Ohio State (47.9-7.0) 40.9 99.1% Ohio State
4:00 PM ESPNN Middle Tennessee at Illinois -6 Illinois (30.8-19.4) 11.4 74.6% Illinois
4:00 PM SECN UL-Monroe at Alabama -38 Alabama (52.5-5.8) 46.7 99.7% Alabama
4:45 PM Fox TCU at Texas Tech +7 TCU (44.4-33.7) 10.7 73.1% TCU
5:00 PM Pac-12 California at Washington +4 California (28.0-27.9) 0.0 50.1% Washington
6:00 PM ESPN3 Army at Eastern Michigan -3 Army (32.5-32.2) 0.3 50.6% Army
6:00 PM ESPN3 Samford at Louisville Louisville (43.1-18.8) 24.3 92.0%
7:00 PM ESPN3 Akron at UL-Lafayette -8.5 UL-Lafayette (36.8-26.7) 10.0 71.9% UL-Lafayette
7:00 PM ESPN Arkansas vs. Texas A&M -7.5 Texas A&M (35.2-33.2) 2.0 54.6% Arkansas
7:00 PM ESPN3 Arkansas State at Toledo -7.5 Toledo (29.0-21.5) 7.4 66.6% Arkansas State
7:00 PM CBSSN Colorado State at UTSA +9 Colorado State (33.3-20.9) 12.5 76.4% Colorado State
7:00 PM ESPN3 James Madison at SMU SMU (40.0-24.2) 15.8 82.0%
7:00 PM Florida Atlantic at Charlotte +11.5 Florida Atlantic (31.3-25.4) 5.9 63.4% Charlotte
7:00 PM ESPNU Vanderbilt at Ole Miss -25 Ole Miss (42.2-12.1) 30.2 95.9% Ole Miss
7:30 PM ESPN2 Mississippi State at Auburn -1.5 Mississippi State (31.7-30.6) 1.1 52.5% Mississippi State
7:30 PM SECN Missouri at Kentucky -3 Missouri (24.4-19.0) 5.4 62.2% Missouri
8:00 PM ESPNN NC State at South Alabama +17 NC State (37.1-19.7) 17.4 84.2% NC State
8:00 PM BTN Ball State at Northwestern -19.5 Northwestern (31.4-18.3) 13.2 77.7% Ball State
8:00 PM Incarnate Word at UTEP UTEP (44.2-20.1) 24.1 91.9%
8:00 PM BTN Hawaii at Wisconsin -24.5 Wisconsin (39.8-7.4) 32.4 96.9% Wisconsin
8:00 PM ESPN3 Texas State at Houston -16.5 Houston (39.9-34.7) 5.2 61.7% Texas State
8:00 PM ABC UCLA at Arizona +3.5 UCLA (35.5-27.3) 8.3 68.3% UCLA
8:30 PM Fox Utah at Oregon -11 Oregon (38.8-23.4) 15.3 81.2% Oregon
9:00 PM Idaho State at UNLV UNLV (31.8-22.3) 9.5 70.9%
9:00 PM ESPN3 Georgia Southern at Idaho +16 Georgia Southern (42.6-26.0) 16.6 83.2% Georgia Southern
10:30 PM CBSSN Fresno State at San Jose State -4.5 San Jose State (34.6-25.9) 8.7 69.3% San Jose State
10:30 PM EPSPN USC at Arizona State +5.5 USC (36.2-29.8) 6.4 64.5% USC