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So ... funny story. When I was redesigning S&P+ last winter, I set up my picks spreadsheet to point at S&P+ instead of F/+ (which is the combined S&P+ and FEI) so that I could test how the new number was doing in that regard. The week before the season began, as it was time to make the Week 1 picks, I dusted off those spreadsheets and gave them a quick perusal, and everything looked right. So I started in. Only ... the VLOOKUPs were still pointed at S&P+ and not F/+. And it took me three weeks to realize it. So what I've been calling F/+ picks for the first three weeks were actually picks generated from only my number, not mine and Fremeau's.
Good thing I don't advocate these for gambling purposes, huh?
So now that I've realized it, I'm going to try to do something about it. But I never leave myself enough time to actually do anything in timely fashion, so I haven't gotten it yet. So ... ladies and gentlemen, your S&P+ picks for Week 4. I really need a keeper.
So how has S&P+ done so far this year?
- Week 1: 20-17 (54%)
- Week 2: 25-26 (49%)
- Week 3: 28-23-1 (55%)
- OVERALL: 73-66-1 (53%)
I'll take it. As I've said before, I post these picks for validation. Since I don't really have the capability of showing everything under the S&P+ hood (and few would have interest in looking that far under the hood to begin with), I post these picks as proof that the numbers I use for analysis purposes are good enough to use. Over 50% against the spread? Win probabilities working out as they should? Then I'm happy. (This means that, when I do get the F/+ picks squared away, I'll run the picks for the first weeks of the season, too, so I can make sure they're performing as they should.)
Win probabilities
How are the win probabilities working out? Still a little too well, honestly, but that's probably because the FCS picks seem to have been quite a bit more in-line this year. Well ... with one exception. Congrats to UCF for becoming the first team with a 90%+ chance of winning ... to not win. Gotta watch out for those Furman Paladins.
Win Prob. Range | Last Week | Overall | Win% |
50-59% | 3-4 | 15-12 | 55.6% |
60-69% | 11-6 | 31-8 | 79.5% |
70-79% | 9-0 | 34-5 | 87.2% |
80-89% | 12-2 | 49-7 | 87.5% |
90-99% | 21-1 | 68-1 | 98.6% |
As the FCS games cycle off of the calendar (until the SEC's SoCon Saturday, anyway), I would assume we'll see an evening out of those games in the 70-99% range. The evening out for 60-69% began last week, I think. If your percentages are going to be off, you want it to be in the "too good" range, but hopefully this still evens out. I use win probabilities for projecting conference races and whatnot, so I need those to fall in line to feel good about those posts.
Thursday
Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
7:30 PM | ESPN | Cincinnati at Memphis | -10 | Memphis (37.4-28.9) | 8.5 | 68.8% | Cincinnati |
(No, the numbers haven't noticed that Gunner Kiel is doubtful to play tonight.)
Friday
Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
8:00 PM | ESPN | Boise State at Virginia | +3 | Boise State (33.4-22.0) | 11.4 | 74.5% | Boise State |
10:00 PM | FS1 | Stanford at Oregon State | +15.5 | Stanford (31.6-14.3) | 17.3 | 84.2% | Stanford |
Saturday
Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
12:00 PM | BTN | Bowling Green at Purdue | +2 | Purdue (32.7-32.2) | 0.6 | 51.3% | Purdue |
12:00 PM | ABC | BYU at Michigan | -5 | Michigan (29.4-22.5) | 6.9 | 65.6% | Michigan |
12:00 PM | ESPNU | Central Florida at South Carolina | -15 | South Carolina (37.7-16.8) | 20.9 | 88.6% | South Carolina |
12:00 PM | BTN | Central Michigan at Michigan State | -27 | Michigan State (43.0-15.9) | 27.0 | 94.1% | Michigan State |
12:00 PM | SECN | Southern U. at Georgia | Georgia (56.2-0.6) | 55.6 | 99.9% | ||
12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Georgia Tech at Duke | +8.5 | Georgia Tech (25.6-23.0) | 2.7 | 56.1% | Duke |
12:00 PM | BTN | Kansas at Rutgers | -13 | Rutgers (41.3-28.1) | 13.2 | 77.7% | Rutgers |
12:00 PM | ESPN | LSU at Syracuse | +25 | LSU (37.9-20.4) | 17.6 | 84.5% | Syracuse |
12:00 PM | CBSSN | Navy at Connecticut | +7 | Navy (33.2-22.4) | 10.8 | 73.4% | Navy |
12:00 PM | ESPNN | Southern Miss at Nebraska | -22 | Nebraska (45.9-21.4) | 24.4 | 92.1% | Nebraska |
12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Delaware at North Carolina | North Carolina (46.0-9.6) | 36.4 | 98.2% | ||
12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Indiana at Wake Forest | +3.5 | Wake Forest (35.6-32.6) | 3.0 | 56.9% | Wake Forest |
1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Northern Illinois at Boston College | -4.5 | Boston College (26.6-14.8) | 11.8 | 75.2% | Boston College |
1:30 PM | Pac-12 | Nicholls State at Colorado | Colorado (46.2-4.7) | 41.5 | 99.2% | ||
2:30 PM | Florida International at Louisiana Tech | -14.5 | Louisiana Tech (38.7-19.6) | 19.0 | 86.5% | Louisiana Tech | |
3:00 PM | New Mexico at Wyoming | +3 | New Mexico (31.9-25.6) | 6.3 | 64.3% | New Mexico | |
3:00 PM | FS1 | Maryland at West Virginia | -17 | West Virginia (39.7-16.8) | 22.9 | 90.7% | West Virginia |
3:00 PM | Rice at Baylor | -35 | Baylor (51.9-21.0) | 30.9 | 96.3% | Rice | |
3:30 PM | Appalachian State at Old Dominion | +7.5 | Appalachian State (29.4-24.7) | 4.7 | 60.7% | Old Dominion | |
3:30 PM | NBC | Massachusetts at Notre Dame | -29 | Notre Dame (50.1-11.4) | 38.7 | 98.7% | Notre Dame |
3:30 PM | ESPNU | North Texas at Iowa | -24.5 | Iowa (43.5-10.8) | 32.7 | 97.1% | Iowa |
3:30 PM | BTN | Ohio at Minnesota | -10.5 | Minnesota (32.5-16.5) | 16.0 | 82.2% | Minnesota |
3:30 PM | ESPN | Oklahoma State at Texas | +3.5 | Texas (34.3-31.5) | 2.8 | 56.3% | Texas |
3:30 PM | CBS | Tennessee at Florida | -1.5 | Tennessee (26.2-25.1) | 1.1 | 52.5% | Tennessee |
3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Virginia Tech at East Carolina | +8.5 | Virginia Tech (36.6-24.3) | 12.3 | 76.1% | Virginia Tech |
3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Marshall at Kent State | +7 | Marshall (22.0-8.9) | 13.2 | 77.7% | Marshall |
3:30 PM | CBSSN | Miami-OH at Western Kentucky | -20.5 | Western Kentucky (41.1-19.0) | 22.1 | 89.9% | Western Kentucky |
3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Nevada at Buffalo | -1 | Nevada (28.3-27.5) | 0.8 | 51.8% | Nevada |
3:30 PM | BTN | San Diego State at Penn State | -15 | Penn State (32.0-14.5) | 17.4 | 84.3% | Penn State |
3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Western Michigan at Ohio State | -31.5 | Ohio State (47.9-7.0) | 40.9 | 99.1% | Ohio State |
4:00 PM | ESPNN | Middle Tennessee at Illinois | -6 | Illinois (30.8-19.4) | 11.4 | 74.6% | Illinois |
4:00 PM | SECN | UL-Monroe at Alabama | -38 | Alabama (52.5-5.8) | 46.7 | 99.7% | Alabama |
4:45 PM | Fox | TCU at Texas Tech | +7 | TCU (44.4-33.7) | 10.7 | 73.1% | TCU |
5:00 PM | Pac-12 | California at Washington | +4 | California (28.0-27.9) | 0.0 | 50.1% | Washington |
6:00 PM | ESPN3 | Army at Eastern Michigan | -3 | Army (32.5-32.2) | 0.3 | 50.6% | Army |
6:00 PM | ESPN3 | Samford at Louisville | Louisville (43.1-18.8) | 24.3 | 92.0% | ||
7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Akron at UL-Lafayette | -8.5 | UL-Lafayette (36.8-26.7) | 10.0 | 71.9% | UL-Lafayette |
7:00 PM | ESPN | Arkansas vs. Texas A&M | -7.5 | Texas A&M (35.2-33.2) | 2.0 | 54.6% | Arkansas |
7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Arkansas State at Toledo | -7.5 | Toledo (29.0-21.5) | 7.4 | 66.6% | Arkansas State |
7:00 PM | CBSSN | Colorado State at UTSA | +9 | Colorado State (33.3-20.9) | 12.5 | 76.4% | Colorado State |
7:00 PM | ESPN3 | James Madison at SMU | SMU (40.0-24.2) | 15.8 | 82.0% | ||
7:00 PM | Florida Atlantic at Charlotte | +11.5 | Florida Atlantic (31.3-25.4) | 5.9 | 63.4% | Charlotte | |
7:00 PM | ESPNU | Vanderbilt at Ole Miss | -25 | Ole Miss (42.2-12.1) | 30.2 | 95.9% | Ole Miss |
7:30 PM | ESPN2 | Mississippi State at Auburn | -1.5 | Mississippi State (31.7-30.6) | 1.1 | 52.5% | Mississippi State |
7:30 PM | SECN | Missouri at Kentucky | -3 | Missouri (24.4-19.0) | 5.4 | 62.2% | Missouri |
8:00 PM | ESPNN | NC State at South Alabama | +17 | NC State (37.1-19.7) | 17.4 | 84.2% | NC State |
8:00 PM | BTN | Ball State at Northwestern | -19.5 | Northwestern (31.4-18.3) | 13.2 | 77.7% | Ball State |
8:00 PM | Incarnate Word at UTEP | UTEP (44.2-20.1) | 24.1 | 91.9% | |||
8:00 PM | BTN | Hawaii at Wisconsin | -24.5 | Wisconsin (39.8-7.4) | 32.4 | 96.9% | Wisconsin |
8:00 PM | ESPN3 | Texas State at Houston | -16.5 | Houston (39.9-34.7) | 5.2 | 61.7% | Texas State |
8:00 PM | ABC | UCLA at Arizona | +3.5 | UCLA (35.5-27.3) | 8.3 | 68.3% | UCLA |
8:30 PM | Fox | Utah at Oregon | -11 | Oregon (38.8-23.4) | 15.3 | 81.2% | Oregon |
9:00 PM | Idaho State at UNLV | UNLV (31.8-22.3) | 9.5 | 70.9% | |||
9:00 PM | ESPN3 | Georgia Southern at Idaho | +16 | Georgia Southern (42.6-26.0) | 16.6 | 83.2% | Georgia Southern |
10:30 PM | CBSSN | Fresno State at San Jose State | -4.5 | San Jose State (34.6-25.9) | 8.7 | 69.3% | San Jose State |
10:30 PM | EPSPN | USC at Arizona State | +5.5 | USC (36.2-29.8) | 6.4 | 64.5% | USC |