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Ohio State 38, Penn State 10: Nittany Lions couldn't overcome horrific field position

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Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports

osupennwp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Predicted WP

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

5

Ohio State

4

11

79

1

PUNT

0.439

0.115

2

7

Penn State

1

10

66

1

Christian Hackenberg Pass to Chris Godwin for 45, FIRST DOWN

0.526

-0.112

3

45

Ohio State

3

11

60

1

Cardale Jones Pass to Braxton Miller for 17, FIRST DOWN

0.441

0.106

4

40

Penn State

3

8

51

1

Christian Hackenberg Rush for -7

0.425

0.087

5

49

Ohio State

3

7

25

2

J.T. Barrett Rush for 12, FIRST DOWN

0.545

0.078

Ohio State 38, Penn State 10

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Ohio State Penn State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 69 53
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 89.3%
Avg Starting FP 36.4 16.7 29.6
Possessions 13 12
Scoring Opportunities*
7 4
Points Per Opportunity 5.43 2.50 4.77
Leverage Rate** 69.8% 73.9% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.621 0.620 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Ohio State Penn State
Total 41.4 27.7
Rushing 31.2 17.9
Passing 10.1 9.8
Success Rate (what's this?) Ohio State Penn State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 47.6% 41.3% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 51.2% 48.4% 42.4%
Passing (close) 40.0% 26.7% 40.7%
Standard Downs 56.8% 52.9% 47.1%
Passing Downs 26.3% 8.3% 29.9%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Ohio State Penn State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.20 1.45 1.27
Rushing (close) 1.21 1.18 1.08
Passing (close) 1.17 2.45 1.47
Standard Downs 1.03 1.44 1.11
Passing Downs 2.05 1.56 1.79
Line Stats Ohio State Penn State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.77 3.64 2.85
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 10.0% 25.0% 5.0%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 10.0% 28.6% 7.3%
Turnovers Ohio State Penn State
Turnovers 0 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 4.6
Turnover Margin Ohio State +1
Exp. TO Margin Ohio State +0.07
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Ohio State +0.93
TO Points Margin Ohio State +4.6 points
Situational Ohio State Penn State
Q1 S&P 0.430 0.536
Q2 S&P 0.847 0.512
Q3 S&P 0.435 0.722
Q4 S&P 0.784 0.719
1st Down S&P 0.616 0.619
2nd Down S&P 0.671 0.796
3rd Down S&P 0.564 0.403
Projected Scoring Margin: Ohio State by 18.2
Actual Scoring Margin: Ohio State by 28

Worst Starting Field Position in a game (2015 to date)
1. USF vs. Memphis (15.2)
2. Nicholls State vs. Colorado (15.4)
3. Miami-Ohio vs. Ohio (16.5)
4. Penn State vs. Ohio State (16.7)
5. Virginia vs. Pitt (16.8)

Penn State ran the ball pretty well and came up with more big pass plays than I expected ... but had to drive, on average, 83 yards to score a touchdown. Probably not a surprise that the Nittany Lions only scored one of those. Urban Meyer teams are so very, very good at the special teams and field position thing.