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The Numerical

Week 3 college football Five Factors box scores

Auburn’s postgame win probability was 83% in the loss to LSU. Ouch. Also: North Texas was both better and luckier than Arkansas.

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The rise of the Aztec empire

More teams are copying the San Diego State strategy of using a rangy hybrid in the middle of the field and offenses aren’t sure what to do about him.

Week 2 college football Five Factors box scores

FSU was screwed by turnovers in Week 1 and saved by them in Week 2.

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What kind of coach can win at Kansas?

The formula that propelled Kansas in the past is now a best practice in the Big 12. To win in the future they need to go a different route.

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Week 1 college football Five Factors box scores

Virginia Tech’s big win came with help.

Bill Connelly's 130-team preview, 2018

3 overrated college football teams for 2018 by preseason analytics

Preseason polls are more accurate and useful than you might think, but there are always some misses.

You’re more likely to score after a punt. Why?

Fuel for the #NeverPunt crowd.

Big plays are the 3-pointers of football

The only way to prevent them is by preventing ANY kind of successful play.

What could a Jim Harbaugh spread offense look like?

By hiring former spread OL coach Ed Warriner and bringing in Shea Patterson, Jim Harbaugh may be transitioning towards more of a pro-spread fusion in 2018.

P.J. Fleck’s walk-on warriors

Recruiting and branding mastermind P.J. Fleck has been working the walk-on program in an effort to build up the Minnesota roster into the kind of squad that can compete for B1G titles.

An advanced football stats FAQ for high school coaches

There’s no reason you can’t try to derive an advantage from advanced stats at the high school level, too.

How Iowa continues to hold up in base defense

The Big 10 have been late adopters to the spread era but Iowa has managed to survive and thrive on defense without moving away from their traditional, 4-3 defense.

The most well-rounded college running backs in 2018

Meanwhile, Mississippi State has two of the most exciting mobile quarterbacks in the country.

Mike Gundy’s space-force

Mike Gundy has always had a knack for tying his explosive passing attacks to spread run games. The Cowboys’ 2018 rushing attack may be their strongest yet.

Morning Tailgate

The synergies of the optimal college football offense

What are the five elements of the optimal college offense? Catch up here.

The five elements of the optimal college football offense

Synthesizing a bunch of concepts we discuss a lot but haven’t necessarily put together.

A.J. Brown is terrifying, and other things advanced stats can tell us

Stats and eyeballs agree: Brown is maybe the best returning receiver in the country.

Shaq Griffin and 3-4 OLB play against the spread

The 3-4 OLB is being threatened with extinction by the spread offense, but Shaq Griffin revealed that a fast enough athlete can still make it work.

What if the G5 had their own playoff?

Rather than collecting the scraps from the table of the P5 schools, what if the G5 broke off and created their own system for determining a national champion.

Can the 4-2-5 still stop the spread?

The 4-2-5 was once a cutting edge system for handling spread attacks, now spread attacks are designed to attack it. Are there enough evolutions available to keep the system alive and well heading into a new decade?

Joe Moorhead explains the 5 tenets of the SEC West’s most dangerous offense

Joe Moorhead’s offensive system is all the proof you need that he can thrive in Starkville and take on college football’s most fearsome division.

Mike Norvell’s TE-inclusive spread offense

Norvell’s spread offense is built off the use of a traditional, in-line TE to create stress for opposing defenses and set up the explosive passing game to light up the scoreboard.

The key to Jimbo’s first year at Texas A&M

Fisher has a tough task ahead converting the spread-oriented Aggie offense into something closer to his preferred pro-style approach. JUCO TE Jace Sternberger or another recent addition could be the most important part of that transition.

What will 2018 hold for the Veer and Shoot?

Art Briles’ offense and coaching tree has taken some major hits from scandal and personnel problems but still has the potential to grow into a dominant force within the college game.

College football rankings, ranked

How important are each of the many ranking systems that float around this sport?

Coaching overachievers and underachievers

Using statistics to determine college football’s biggest coaching overachievers and underachievers.

How does rain affect a game (and its over/under)?

If the forecast (which is never, EVER wrong) says rain, hit the under.

45 reasons to care about college football stats

No matter your relationship to college football, the future of analytics will make at least one of the items listed below better for you.

Five Factors

How does wind affect a game (and its over/under)?

When it’s windy, bet the under. If you can trust the weather forecast, anyway.

What does it mean to be “multiple” on offense?

That’s a favorite buzzphrase for offensive coaches at new destinations but what does it really mean?

Iso over power in the smashmouth spread

Old school, iso runs are becoming a favorite way for smashmouth spread teams to get the "smashmouth" effect in the run game.

Does WVU have the most dangerous duo in college football?

How West Virginia’s spread-Iso tactics made Grier to Sills IV the most lethal QB/WR duo in college football.