:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/47475350/usa-today-8865697.0.jpg)
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/4175032/Screen_Shot_2015-10-18_at_10.08.11_PM.0.png)
Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Predicted WP |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
|
1 |
167 |
Georgia Tech |
3 |
15 |
67 |
4 |
Justin Thomas Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.364 |
-0.364 |
|
2 |
123 |
Georgia Tech |
1 |
7 |
7 |
4 |
Marcus Marshall Rush for 7, TOUCHDOWN |
0.375 |
0.182 |
|
3 |
156 |
Pittsburgh |
4 |
14 |
38 |
4 |
FIELD_GOAL |
0.521 |
-0.179 |
|
4 |
21 |
Georgia Tech |
2 |
11 |
58 |
1 |
Marcus Marshall Rush for 58, TOUCHDOWN |
0.357 |
0.164 |
|
5 |
163 |
Georgia Tech |
4 |
11 |
77 |
4 |
Justin Thomas Pass to Ricky Jeune for 15, FIRST DOWN |
0.308 |
0.142 |
Pittsburgh 31, Georgia Tech 28
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Georgia Tech | Pittsburgh | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 55 | 66 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 17.7 | 31.3 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 10 | 9 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
5 | 5 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.60 | 6.20 | 4.77 |
| Leverage Rate** | 63.6% | 84.9% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.706 | 0.655 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Georgia Tech | Pittsburgh | |
| Total | 41.8 | 37.0 | |
| Rushing | 33.3 | 18.0 | |
| Passing | 8.5 | 19.0 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Georgia Tech | Pittsburgh | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 50.9% | 57.6% | 41.6% |
| Rushing (close) | 59.0% | 58.1% | 42.4% |
| Passing (close) | 31.3% | 56.5% | 40.7% |
| Standard Downs | 54.3% | 66.1% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 45.0% | 10.0% | 29.9% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Georgia Tech | Pittsburgh | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.49 | 0.97 | 1.27 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.45 | 0.72 | 1.08 |
| Passing (close) | 1.69 | 1.46 | 1.47 |
| Standard Downs | 1.29 | 0.91 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 1.91 | 3.23 | 1.79 |
| Line Stats | Georgia Tech | Pittsburgh | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.45 | 3.59 | 2.85 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 10.0% | 0.0% | 7.3% |
| Turnovers | Georgia Tech | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 5.2 | 0.0 |
| Turnover Margin | Pittsburgh +2 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Pittsburgh +0.73 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Pittsburgh +1.27 | |
| TO Points Margin | Pittsburgh +5.2 points | |
| Situational | Georgia Tech | Pittsburgh |
| Q1 S&P | 1.018 | 0.558 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.710 | 0.910 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.632 | 0.675 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.490 | 0.515 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.731 | 0.625 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.764 | 0.654 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.772 | 0.725 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Pittsburgh by 0.4 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Pittsburgh by 3 | ||
Man oh man, Georgia Tech. I need to write about you at some point because I'm not sure there's a team I was more wrong about than you. Injuries are killer, and four of five losses have been pretty close, but ... 2-5!
Meanwhile, Pitt is a long-distance field goal at the buzzer away from maybe still being undefeated. (Granted, the Panthers beat GT, in part, because of a 56-yarder...)
I can console myself for being wrong about Tech by pointing out that I was reasonably optimistic about the Panthers, who aren't actually amazing but are winning without James Conner nonetheless...