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Pitt 31, Georgia Tech 28: Happy surprise beats sad surprise in the final minutes.

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

gtpittwp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Predicted WP

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

167

Georgia Tech

3

15

67

4

Justin Thomas Pass INTERCEPTED

0.364

-0.364

2

123

Georgia Tech

1

7

7

4

Marcus Marshall Rush for 7, TOUCHDOWN

0.375

0.182

3

156

Pittsburgh

4

14

38

4

FIELD_GOAL

0.521

-0.179

4

21

Georgia Tech

2

11

58

1

Marcus Marshall Rush for 58, TOUCHDOWN

0.357

0.164

5

163

Georgia Tech

4

11

77

4

Justin Thomas Pass to Ricky Jeune for 15, FIRST DOWN

0.308

0.142

Pittsburgh 31, Georgia Tech 28

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Georgia Tech Pittsburgh Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 55 66
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 17.7 31.3 29.6
Possessions 10 9
Scoring Opportunities*
5 5
Points Per Opportunity 5.60 6.20 4.77
Leverage Rate** 63.6% 84.9% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.706 0.655 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Georgia Tech Pittsburgh
Total 41.8 37.0
Rushing 33.3 18.0
Passing 8.5 19.0
Success Rate (what's this?) Georgia Tech Pittsburgh Nat'l Avg
All (close) 50.9% 57.6% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 59.0% 58.1% 42.4%
Passing (close) 31.3% 56.5% 40.7%
Standard Downs 54.3% 66.1% 47.1%
Passing Downs 45.0% 10.0% 29.9%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Georgia Tech Pittsburgh Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.49 0.97 1.27
Rushing (close) 1.45 0.72 1.08
Passing (close) 1.69 1.46 1.47
Standard Downs 1.29 0.91 1.11
Passing Downs 1.91 3.23 1.79
Line Stats Georgia Tech Pittsburgh Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.45 3.59 2.85
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 5.0%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 10.0% 0.0% 7.3%
Turnovers Georgia Tech Pittsburgh
Turnovers 2 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 5.2 0.0
Turnover Margin Pittsburgh +2
Exp. TO Margin Pittsburgh +0.73
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Pittsburgh +1.27
TO Points Margin Pittsburgh +5.2 points
Situational Georgia Tech Pittsburgh
Q1 S&P 1.018 0.558
Q2 S&P 0.710 0.910
Q3 S&P 0.632 0.675
Q4 S&P 0.490 0.515
1st Down S&P 0.731 0.625
2nd Down S&P 0.764 0.654
3rd Down S&P 0.772 0.725
Projected Scoring Margin: Pittsburgh by 0.4
Actual Scoring Margin: Pittsburgh by 3

Man oh man, Georgia Tech. I need to write about you at some point because I'm not sure there's a team I was more wrong about than you. Injuries are killer, and four of five losses have been pretty close, but ... 2-5!

Meanwhile, Pitt is a long-distance field goal at the buzzer away from maybe still being undefeated. (Granted, the Panthers beat GT, in part, because of a 56-yarder...)

I can console myself for being wrong about Tech by pointing out that I was reasonably optimistic about the Panthers, who aren't actually amazing but are winning without James Conner nonetheless...