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Top 5 Plays
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Predicted WP |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
1 |
167 |
Georgia Tech |
3 |
15 |
67 |
4 |
Justin Thomas Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.364 |
-0.364 |
2 |
123 |
Georgia Tech |
1 |
7 |
7 |
4 |
Marcus Marshall Rush for 7, TOUCHDOWN |
0.375 |
0.182 |
3 |
156 |
Pittsburgh |
4 |
14 |
38 |
4 |
FIELD_GOAL |
0.521 |
-0.179 |
4 |
21 |
Georgia Tech |
2 |
11 |
58 |
1 |
Marcus Marshall Rush for 58, TOUCHDOWN |
0.357 |
0.164 |
5 |
163 |
Georgia Tech |
4 |
11 |
77 |
4 |
Justin Thomas Pass to Ricky Jeune for 15, FIRST DOWN |
0.308 |
0.142 |
Pittsburgh 31, Georgia Tech 28
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
Basics | Georgia Tech | Pittsburgh | Nat'l Avg |
---|---|---|---|
Total Plays | 55 | 66 | |
Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
Avg Starting FP | 17.7 | 31.3 | 29.6 |
Possessions | 10 | 9 | |
Scoring Opportunities* |
5 | 5 | |
Points Per Opportunity | 5.60 | 6.20 | 4.77 |
Leverage Rate** | 63.6% | 84.9% | 68.1% |
Close S&P*** | 0.706 | 0.655 | 0.586 |
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
EqPts (what's this?) | Georgia Tech | Pittsburgh | |
Total | 41.8 | 37.0 | |
Rushing | 33.3 | 18.0 | |
Passing | 8.5 | 19.0 | |
Success Rate (what's this?) | Georgia Tech | Pittsburgh | Nat'l Avg |
All (close) | 50.9% | 57.6% | 41.6% |
Rushing (close) | 59.0% | 58.1% | 42.4% |
Passing (close) | 31.3% | 56.5% | 40.7% |
Standard Downs | 54.3% | 66.1% | 47.1% |
Passing Downs | 45.0% | 10.0% | 29.9% |
IsoPPP (what's this?) | Georgia Tech | Pittsburgh | Nat'l Avg |
All (close) | 1.49 | 0.97 | 1.27 |
Rushing (close) | 1.45 | 0.72 | 1.08 |
Passing (close) | 1.69 | 1.46 | 1.47 |
Standard Downs | 1.29 | 0.91 | 1.11 |
Passing Downs | 1.91 | 3.23 | 1.79 |
Line Stats | Georgia Tech | Pittsburgh | Nat'l Avg |
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.45 | 3.59 | 2.85 |
Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% |
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 10.0% | 0.0% | 7.3% |
Turnovers | Georgia Tech | Pittsburgh |
---|---|---|
Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
Turnover Points (what's this?) | 5.2 | 0.0 |
Turnover Margin | Pittsburgh +2 | |
Exp. TO Margin | Pittsburgh +0.73 | |
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Pittsburgh +1.27 | |
TO Points Margin | Pittsburgh +5.2 points | |
Situational | Georgia Tech | Pittsburgh |
Q1 S&P | 1.018 | 0.558 |
Q2 S&P | 0.710 | 0.910 |
Q3 S&P | 0.632 | 0.675 |
Q4 S&P | 0.490 | 0.515 |
1st Down S&P | 0.731 | 0.625 |
2nd Down S&P | 0.764 | 0.654 |
3rd Down S&P | 0.772 | 0.725 |
Projected Scoring Margin: Pittsburgh by 0.4 | ||
Actual Scoring Margin: Pittsburgh by 3 |
Man oh man, Georgia Tech. I need to write about you at some point because I'm not sure there's a team I was more wrong about than you. Injuries are killer, and four of five losses have been pretty close, but ... 2-5!
Meanwhile, Pitt is a long-distance field goal at the buzzer away from maybe still being undefeated. (Granted, the Panthers beat GT, in part, because of a 56-yarder...)
I can console myself for being wrong about Tech by pointing out that I was reasonably optimistic about the Panthers, who aren't actually amazing but are winning without James Conner nonetheless...