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Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Predicted WP |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
|
1 |
20 |
Texas A&M |
2 |
7 |
77 |
1 |
Kyle Allen Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.545 |
-0.185 |
|
2 |
86 |
Texas A&M |
1 |
10 |
30 |
2 |
Kyle Allen Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.172 |
-0.140 |
|
3 |
31 |
Alabama |
2 |
1 |
55 |
1 |
Derrick Henry Rush for 55, TOUCHDOWN |
0.263 |
-0.123 |
|
4 |
6 |
Texas A&M |
4 |
12 |
59 |
1 |
PUNT |
0.488 |
0.110 |
|
5 |
157 |
Texas A&M |
1 |
10 |
80 |
3 |
Kyler Murray Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.140 |
-0.098 |
Alabama 41, Texas A&M 23
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Alabama | Texas A&M | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 70 | 73 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 93.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 28.8 | 30.5 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 14 | 17 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
7 | 5 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 2.86 | 3.20 | 4.77 |
| Leverage Rate** | 60.0% | 61.8% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.577 | 0.501 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Alabama | Texas A&M | |
| Total | 36.5 | 27.3 | |
| Rushing | 25.5 | 6.2 | |
| Passing | 11.0 | 21.1 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Alabama | Texas A&M | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 38.5% | 35.3% | 41.6% |
| Rushing (close) | 41.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% |
| Passing (close) | 34.6% | 33.3% | 40.7% |
| Standard Downs | 51.3% | 38.1% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 19.2% | 30.8% | 29.9% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Alabama | Texas A&M | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.35 | 1.09 | 1.27 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.42 | 0.76 | 1.08 |
| Passing (close) | 1.22 | 1.26 | 1.47 |
| Standard Downs | 1.06 | 0.99 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 2.50 | 1.29 | 1.79 |
| Line Stats | Alabama | Texas A&M | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.85 | 2.70 | 2.85 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 3.6% | 5.0% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 9.1% | 25.0% | 7.3% |
| Turnovers | Alabama | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 4 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 3.9 | 31.0 |
| Turnover Margin | Alabama +3 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Alabama +1.54 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Alabama +1.46 | |
| TO Points Margin | Alabama +27.1 points | |
| Situational | Alabama | Texas A&M |
| Q1 S&P | 0.782 | 0.403 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.435 | 0.569 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.494 | 0.484 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.521 | 0.545 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.620 | 0.527 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.584 | 0.540 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.635 | 0.664 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Alabama by 36.2 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Alabama by 18 | ||
What a strange damn game. If not for a hilarious amount of turnover damage, A&M would have had an excellent chance to win. And if not for a punt return touchdown, Alabama would have been able to put the game away long before the fourth quarter. (It was 31-20 heading into the fourth, so it was MOSTLY put away, but still.)