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Alabama 41, Texas A&M 23: Returns completely defined this odd game

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

alatexamwp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Predicted WP

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

20

Texas A&M

2

7

77

1

Kyle Allen Pass INTERCEPTED

0.545

-0.185

2

86

Texas A&M

1

10

30

2

Kyle Allen Pass INTERCEPTED

0.172

-0.140

3

31

Alabama

2

1

55

1

Derrick Henry Rush for 55, TOUCHDOWN

0.263

-0.123

4

6

Texas A&M

4

12

59

1

PUNT

0.488

0.110

5

157

Texas A&M

1

10

80

3

Kyler Murray Pass INTERCEPTED

0.140

-0.098

Alabama 41, Texas A&M 23

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Alabama Texas A&M Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 70 73
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 93.0%
Avg Starting FP 28.8 30.5 29.6
Possessions 14 17
Scoring Opportunities*
7 5
Points Per Opportunity 2.86 3.20 4.77
Leverage Rate** 60.0% 61.8% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.577 0.501 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Alabama Texas A&M
Total 36.5 27.3
Rushing 25.5 6.2
Passing 11.0 21.1
Success Rate (what's this?) Alabama Texas A&M Nat'l Avg
All (close) 38.5% 35.3% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 41.0% 40.0% 42.4%
Passing (close) 34.6% 33.3% 40.7%
Standard Downs 51.3% 38.1% 47.1%
Passing Downs 19.2% 30.8% 29.9%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Alabama Texas A&M Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.35 1.09 1.27
Rushing (close) 1.42 0.76 1.08
Passing (close) 1.22 1.26 1.47
Standard Downs 1.06 0.99 1.11
Passing Downs 2.50 1.29 1.79
Line Stats Alabama Texas A&M Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.85 2.70 2.85
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 3.6% 5.0%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 9.1% 25.0% 7.3%
Turnovers Alabama Texas A&M
Turnovers 1 4
Turnover Points (what's this?) 3.9 31.0
Turnover Margin Alabama +3
Exp. TO Margin Alabama +1.54
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Alabama +1.46
TO Points Margin Alabama +27.1 points
Situational Alabama Texas A&M
Q1 S&P 0.782 0.403
Q2 S&P 0.435 0.569
Q3 S&P 0.494 0.484
Q4 S&P 0.521 0.545
1st Down S&P 0.620 0.527
2nd Down S&P 0.584 0.540
3rd Down S&P 0.635 0.664
Projected Scoring Margin: Alabama by 36.2
Actual Scoring Margin: Alabama by 18

What a strange damn game. If not for a hilarious amount of turnover damage, A&M would have had an excellent chance to win. And if not for a punt return touchdown, Alabama would have been able to put the game away long before the fourth quarter. (It was 31-20 heading into the fourth, so it was MOSTLY put away, but still.)