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Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Predicted WP |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
|
1 |
92 |
Mississippi |
1 |
10 |
75 |
2 |
Chad Kelly Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION |
0.384 |
0.151 |
|
2 |
72 |
Memphis |
3 |
16 |
90 |
2 |
Paxton Lynch Pass to Anthony Miller for 36, FIRST DOWN |
0.242 |
0.146 |
|
3 |
3 |
Mississippi |
2 |
3 |
68 |
1 |
Laquon Treadwell Pass to Quincy Adeboyejo for 68, TOUCHDOWN |
0.538 |
-0.139 |
|
4 |
77 |
Memphis |
2 |
8 |
37 |
2 |
Paxton Lynch Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION |
0.401 |
-0.123 |
|
5 |
75 |
Memphis |
3 |
8 |
52 |
2 |
Paxton Lynch Pass to Anthony Miller for 13, FIRST DOWN |
0.338 |
0.081 |
Memphis 37, Ole Miss 24
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Memphis | Ole Miss | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 95 | 72 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 34.9 | 23.3 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 14 | 14 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
9 | 5 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.11 | 4.80 | 4.77 |
| Leverage Rate** | 62.1% | 75.0% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.573 | 0.646 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Memphis | Ole Miss | |
| Total | 46.7 | 43.4 | |
| Rushing | 12.6 | 4.8 | |
| Passing | 34.1 | 38.6 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Memphis | Ole Miss | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 43.2% | 51.4% | 41.6% |
| Rushing (close) | 33.3% | 40.9% | 42.4% |
| Passing (close) | 50.0% | 56.0% | 40.7% |
| Standard Downs | 49.2% | 55.6% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 33.3% | 38.9% | 29.9% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Memphis | Ole Miss | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.14 | 1.17 | 1.27 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.97 | 0.53 | 1.08 |
| Passing (close) | 1.22 | 1.38 | 1.47 |
| Standard Downs | 0.94 | 1.19 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 1.62 | 1.08 | 1.79 |
| Line Stats | Memphis | Ole Miss | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.16 | 1.80 | 2.85 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 8.7% | 0.0% | 7.3% |
| Turnovers | Memphis | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 3.9 | 7.3 |
| Turnover Margin | Memphis +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Ole Miss +0.22 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Memphis +1.22 | |
| TO Points Margin | Memphis +3.4 points | |
| Situational | Memphis | Ole Miss |
| Q1 S&P | 0.592 | 0.780 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.626 | 0.450 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.568 | 0.767 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.536 | 0.510 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.523 | 0.613 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.571 | 0.713 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.521 | 0.710 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Memphis by 6.7 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Memphis by 13 | ||
I think Memphis' steadiness is what impressed me the most in this game. The Tigers didn't benefit from a rash of turnovers, and while they benefited from one particular offensive spurt -- four possessions, 24 points in late-Q2 and early-Q3 -- they also got some points early (late-Q1 TD) and late (two Q4 FGs) to maintain separation. And they created a field position advantage and created nearly twice as many scoring chances despite Ole Miss passing pretty efficiently. Ole Miss clearly has issues, but the Rebels don't come off as completely awful here. Memphis was simply better.
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