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Memphis 37, Ole Miss 24: Rebels weren't particularly bad -- Tigers were simply better

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Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

mempolemesswp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Predicted WP

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

92

Mississippi

1

10

75

2

Chad Kelly Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION

0.384

0.151

2

72

Memphis

3

16

90

2

Paxton Lynch Pass to Anthony Miller for 36, FIRST DOWN

0.242

0.146

3

3

Mississippi

2

3

68

1

Laquon Treadwell Pass to Quincy Adeboyejo for 68, TOUCHDOWN

0.538

-0.139

4

77

Memphis

2

8

37

2

Paxton Lynch Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION

0.401

-0.123

5

75

Memphis

3

8

52

2

Paxton Lynch Pass to Anthony Miller for 13, FIRST DOWN

0.338

0.081

Memphis 37, Ole Miss 24

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Memphis Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 95 72
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 34.9 23.3 29.6
Possessions 14 14
Scoring Opportunities*
9 5
Points Per Opportunity 4.11 4.80 4.77
Leverage Rate** 62.1% 75.0% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.573 0.646 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Memphis Ole Miss
Total 46.7 43.4
Rushing 12.6 4.8
Passing 34.1 38.6
Success Rate (what's this?) Memphis Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
All (close) 43.2% 51.4% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 33.3% 40.9% 42.4%
Passing (close) 50.0% 56.0% 40.7%
Standard Downs 49.2% 55.6% 47.1%
Passing Downs 33.3% 38.9% 29.9%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Memphis Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.14 1.17 1.27
Rushing (close) 0.97 0.53 1.08
Passing (close) 1.22 1.38 1.47
Standard Downs 0.94 1.19 1.11
Passing Downs 1.62 1.08 1.79
Line Stats Memphis Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.16 1.80 2.85
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 5.6% 5.0%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 8.7% 0.0% 7.3%
Turnovers Memphis Ole Miss
Turnovers 1 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 3.9 7.3
Turnover Margin Memphis +1
Exp. TO Margin Ole Miss +0.22
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Memphis +1.22
TO Points Margin Memphis +3.4 points
Situational Memphis Ole Miss
Q1 S&P 0.592 0.780
Q2 S&P 0.626 0.450
Q3 S&P 0.568 0.767
Q4 S&P 0.536 0.510
1st Down S&P 0.523 0.613
2nd Down S&P 0.571 0.713
3rd Down S&P 0.521 0.710
Projected Scoring Margin: Memphis by 6.7
Actual Scoring Margin: Memphis by 13

I think Memphis' steadiness is what impressed me the most in this game. The Tigers didn't benefit from a rash of turnovers, and while they benefited from one particular offensive spurt -- four possessions, 24 points in late-Q2 and early-Q3 -- they also got some points early (late-Q1 TD) and late (two Q4 FGs) to maintain separation. And they created a field position advantage and created nearly twice as many scoring chances despite Ole Miss passing pretty efficiently. Ole Miss clearly has issues, but the Rebels don't come off as completely awful here. Memphis was simply better.