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Notre Dame 41, USC 31: Pattern emerges for the 2015 Trojans

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

uscndwp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Predicted WP

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

82

USC

2

9

83

2

Cody Kessler Pass to Adoree' Jackson for 83, TOUCHDOWN

0.803

-0.217

2

114

USC

3

2

72

3

Ronald Jones II Rush for 65, FIRST DOWN

0.566

-0.203

3

146

Notre Dame

2

6

6

4

C.J. Prosise Rush for 6, TOUCHDOWN

0.356

0.199

4

160

Notre Dame

3

8

10

4

DeShone Kizer Pass to Corey Robinson for 10, TOUCHDOWN

0.705

0.179

5

7

USC

3

8

43

1

Cody Kessler Pass to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 37, FIRST DOWN

0.522

-0.155

Notre Dame 41, USC 31

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Notre Dame USC Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 60 77
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 32.2 24.9 29.6
Possessions 13 14
Scoring Opportunities*
8 8
Points Per Opportunity 4.25 3.88 4.77
Leverage Rate** 73.3% 62.3% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.692 0.664 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Notre Dame USC
Total 44.6 53.0
Rushing 22.2 14.5
Passing 22.4 38.6
Success Rate (what's this?) Notre Dame USC Nat'l Avg
All (close) 46.7% 40.3% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 58.1% 35.7% 42.4%
Passing (close) 34.5% 42.9% 40.7%
Standard Downs 50.0% 45.8% 47.1%
Passing Downs 37.5% 31.0% 29.9%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Notre Dame USC Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.59 1.71 1.27
Rushing (close) 1.23 1.45 1.08
Passing (close) 2.24 1.84 1.47
Standard Downs 1.42 1.29 1.11
Passing Downs 2.22 2.75 1.79
Line Stats Notre Dame USC Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.65 2.39 2.85
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 11.1% 0.0% 5.0%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 18.2% 8.3% 7.3%
Turnovers Notre Dame USC
Turnovers 1 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 7.1 4.9
Turnover Margin Notre Dame +1
Exp. TO Margin Notre Dame +0.15
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Notre Dame +0.85
TO Points Margin USC +2.2 points
Situational Notre Dame USC
Q1 S&P 1.335 0.607
Q2 S&P 0.496 1.233
Q3 S&P 0.493 0.735
Q4 S&P 0.758 0.442
1st Down S&P 0.750 0.724
2nd Down S&P 0.757 0.602
3rd Down S&P 0.683 0.670
Projected Scoring Margin: USC by 10.7
Actual Scoring Margin: Notre Dame by 10

The USC offense was hugely explosive (5 plays of 30+ yards) yet again but it's inefficiency is what cost them the game, especially in the drives to end each half. The Notre Dame offense was fantastic all around, aided by the fact that USC's defense is looking largely inept especially at the defensive line.

Formations/Basics

USC Notre Dame
Backs-Wide % of Plays Yds/Play % of Plays Yds/Play
0 backs, 4 wide 1.3% 0.0 1.7% 35.0
0 backs, 5 wide 3.4% 5.5
1 back, 1 wide 1.7% -2.0
1 back, 2 wide 14.3% 4.9 3.4% 1.5
1 back, 3 wide 44.2% 8.2 37.3% 13.0
1 back, 4 wide 29.9% 9.0 33.9% 2.2
2 backs, 2 wide 2.6% 2.0 5.1% 7.7
2 backs, 3 wide 6.5% 8.4 13.6% 9.9
3 backs, 1 wide 1.3% 4.0
No Huddle? % of Plays Yds/Play
USC 100.0% 7.7
Notre Dame 100.0% 8.1
USC Notre Dame
Hash % of Plays Yds/Play % of Plays Yds/Play
Left 28.6% 3.5 37.3% 6.2
Middle 13.0% 11.9 23.7% 11.2
Right 58.4% 8.8 39.0% 8.0

Passing

USC Notre Dame
Passing Comp Rt Yds/Pass Passing Comp Rt Yds/Pass
Behind Line 3-3, 106 yards 100.0% 35.3 5-5, 33 yards 100.0% 6.6
0 to 4 13-15, 77 yards 86.7% 5.1 3-6, 15 yards 50.0% 2.5
5 to 9 9-15, 77 yards 60.0% 5.1 2-4, 18 yards 50.0% 4.5
10 to 19 4-9, 68 yards 44.4% 7.6 3-5, 41 yards 60.0% 8.2
20 to 29 1-2, 75 yards 50.0% 37.5 0-1, 0 yards 0.0% 0.0
30-plus 1-3, 37 yards 33.3% 12.3 3-4, 155 yards 75.0% 38.8
USC Notre Dame
% Blitz: 10.2% 27.6%
Avg. Rushers 3.9 4.2
Passing (no blitz) 30-43, 403 yards, 1 sacks, 9.2 yds. per att. 13-17, 233 yards, 4 sacks, 11.1 yds. per att.
Passing (blitz) 1-4, 37 yards, 1 sacks, 7.4 yds. per att. 3-8, 29 yards, 0 sacks, 3.6 yds. per att.
Reason for INC/INT USC Notre Dame
QB Fault 9 5
Good Defense 6 2
WR Fault 1 1

Cody Kessler's are fine on the surface, however in 2 minute drives in the 2nd quarter and 4th quarter combined he only averaged 6 yards per completion, threw two interceptions and took 2 sacks. That won't win any football games, let alone this past one against Notre Dame.

Rushing

USC Notre Dame
Rush-Yds YPC Rush-Yds YPC
To Edge 9-68 7.6 11-104 9.5
Toward Tackle 12-23 1.9 6-50 8.3
Up Middle 3-66 22.0 8-61 7.6


Ronald Jones continual lack of carries is frustrating, granted his average is boosted by his long 65 yard run, it just doesn't make sense to me why you wouldn't give a guy who can spring a run for 65 yards the ball more. Tre Madden was the worst runner of the day, with only 23 yards on 9 carries aka the most a RB got.

The Trojan defense couldn't stop CJ Prosise and was continually dominated at the LOS by Notre Dame's outstanding offensive line, giving up a total of 7 runs of 15+ yards.

QB Activity

USC Notre Dame
QB Move Rushes-Yds Passes-Yds Sacks-Yds Rushes-Yds Passes-Yds Sacks-Yds
Option - zone read 8-39
QB Draw 2-13
Sack - in pocket 2-(-9)
Sack - coverage sack 2-(-17)
Sack - QB fault 1-(-1)
Broken Play