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Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Predicted WP |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
|
1 |
200 |
Auburn |
1 |
10 |
54 |
4 |
Team Team Rush for 0 |
0.254 |
-0.254 |
|
2 |
20 |
Kentucky |
2 |
10 |
63 |
1 |
Stanley Boom Williams Rush for 60, FIRST DOWN |
0.359 |
0.191 |
|
3 |
180 |
Kentucky |
2 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
Mikel Horton Rush for 1, TOUCHDOWN |
0.190 |
0.183 |
|
4 |
54 |
Kentucky |
1 |
8 |
8 |
2 |
Patrick Towles Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION |
0.520 |
-0.180 |
|
5 |
199 |
Kentucky |
4 |
3 |
44 |
4 |
Patrick Towles Rush for -2 |
0.408 |
-0.153 |
Auburn 30, Kentucky 27
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Auburn | Kentucky | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 75 | 77 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 32.5 | 24.0 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 12 | 11 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
7 | 6 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.29 | 4.50 | 4.77 |
| Leverage Rate** | 72.0% | 72.7% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.575 | 0.634 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Auburn | Kentucky | |
| Total | 38.6 | 45.5 | |
| Rushing | 15.9 | 15.2 | |
| Passing | 22.6 | 30.3 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Auburn | Kentucky | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 38.7% | 49.4% | 41.6% |
| Rushing (close) | 30.4% | 50.0% | 42.4% |
| Passing (close) | 51.7% | 48.9% | 40.7% |
| Standard Downs | 38.9% | 50.0% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 38.1% | 47.6% | 29.9% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Auburn | Kentucky | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.33 | 1.20 | 1.27 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.14 | 1.01 | 1.08 |
| Passing (close) | 1.51 | 1.32 | 1.47 |
| Standard Downs | 1.30 | 0.88 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 1.40 | 2.09 | 1.79 |
| Line Stats | Auburn | Kentucky | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.03 | 2.70 | 2.85 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 6.3% | 5.0% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% |
| Turnovers | Auburn | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 0.0 | 6.0 |
| Turnover Margin | Auburn +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Kentucky +0.22 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Auburn +1.22 | |
| TO Points Margin | Auburn +6.0 points | |
| Situational | Auburn | Kentucky |
| Q1 S&P | 0.654 | 0.768 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.592 | 0.603 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.306 | 0.661 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.628 | 0.538 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.610 | 0.605 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.561 | 0.663 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.580 | 0.636 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Kentucky by 0.9 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Auburn by 3 | ||
If you ignore the jerseys and Gus Malzahn on the sideline and all the things that lead you to believe Auburn should be much better than it currently is, then this was a nice, gutty win by one mediocre team over another. But ... the fact that Gus Malzahn was punting on fourth-and-1 when he had a chance to ice the game was just ... depressing to see. He clearly doesn't have confidence in his offensive personnel, and they haven't earned it. STILL ... 30-27! Nice win for bowl purposes!