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Auburn 30, Kentucky 27: I'm trying to work past the "punting on fourth-and-1" thing

Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports

aubkentwp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Predicted WP

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

200

Auburn

1

10

54

4

Team Team Rush for 0

0.254

-0.254

2

20

Kentucky

2

10

63

1

Stanley Boom Williams Rush for 60, FIRST DOWN

0.359

0.191

3

180

Kentucky

2

1

1

4

Mikel Horton Rush for 1, TOUCHDOWN

0.190

0.183

4

54

Kentucky

1

8

8

2

Patrick Towles Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION

0.520

-0.180

5

199

Kentucky

4

3

44

4

Patrick Towles Rush for -2

0.408

-0.153

Auburn 30, Kentucky 27

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Auburn Kentucky Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 75 77
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 32.5 24.0 29.6
Possessions 12 11
Scoring Opportunities*
7 6
Points Per Opportunity 4.29 4.50 4.77
Leverage Rate** 72.0% 72.7% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.575 0.634 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Auburn Kentucky
Total 38.6 45.5
Rushing 15.9 15.2
Passing 22.6 30.3
Success Rate (what's this?) Auburn Kentucky Nat'l Avg
All (close) 38.7% 49.4% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 30.4% 50.0% 42.4%
Passing (close) 51.7% 48.9% 40.7%
Standard Downs 38.9% 50.0% 47.1%
Passing Downs 38.1% 47.6% 29.9%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Auburn Kentucky Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.33 1.20 1.27
Rushing (close) 1.14 1.01 1.08
Passing (close) 1.51 1.32 1.47
Standard Downs 1.30 0.88 1.11
Passing Downs 1.40 2.09 1.79
Line Stats Auburn Kentucky Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.03 2.70 2.85
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 6.3% 5.0%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 7.7% 6.7% 7.3%
Turnovers Auburn Kentucky
Turnovers 0 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 6.0
Turnover Margin Auburn +1
Exp. TO Margin Kentucky +0.22
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Auburn +1.22
TO Points Margin Auburn +6.0 points
Situational Auburn Kentucky
Q1 S&P 0.654 0.768
Q2 S&P 0.592 0.603
Q3 S&P 0.306 0.661
Q4 S&P 0.628 0.538
1st Down S&P 0.610 0.605
2nd Down S&P 0.561 0.663
3rd Down S&P 0.580 0.636
Projected Scoring Margin: Kentucky by 0.9
Actual Scoring Margin: Auburn by 3

If you ignore the jerseys and Gus Malzahn on the sideline and all the things that lead you to believe Auburn should be much better than it currently is, then this was a nice, gutty win by one mediocre team over another. But ... the fact that Gus Malzahn was punting on fourth-and-1 when he had a chance to ice the game was just ... depressing to see. He clearly doesn't have confidence in his offensive personnel, and they haven't earned it. STILL ... 30-27! Nice win for bowl purposes!