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Miami 30, Virginia Tech 20: 'Canes hit some big passes and let the Hokies implode

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

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Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Predicted WP

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

94

Miami (Florida)

3

20

89

2

Brad Kaaya Pass to Herb Waters for 45, FIRST DOWN

0.449

0.203

2

158

Virginia Tech

2

12

33

4

Michael Brewer Pass to Isaiah Ford for 33, TOUCHDOWN

0.906

-0.184

3

10

Virginia Tech

2

4

84

1

Brenden Motley Rush for -13, FUMBLE

0.580

0.163

4

109

Virginia Tech

1

10

30

3

Brenden Motley INTERCEPTED

0.684

0.117

5

4

Miami (Florida)

2

12

77

1

Brad Kaaya Pass to Joseph Yearby for 25, FIRST DOWN

0.523

0.096

Miami 30, Virginia Tech 20

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Miami Virginia Tech Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 69 62
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 36.8 23.7 29.6
Possessions 12 11
Scoring Opportunities*
8 6
Points Per Opportunity 3.75 3.33 4.77
Leverage Rate** 66.7% 75.8% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.581 0.625 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Miami Virginia Tech
Total 36.1 33.9
Rushing 10.7 15.7
Passing 25.4 18.3
Success Rate (what's this?) Miami Virginia Tech Nat'l Avg
All (close) 33.3% 51.6% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 18.4% 59.4% 42.4%
Passing (close) 51.6% 43.3% 40.7%
Standard Downs 34.8% 55.3% 47.1%
Passing Downs 30.4% 40.0% 29.9%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Miami Virginia Tech Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.57 1.06 1.27
Rushing (close) 1.53 0.83 1.08
Passing (close) 1.58 1.41 1.47
Standard Downs 1.26 0.99 1.11
Passing Downs 2.27 1.35 1.79
Line Stats Miami Virginia Tech Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 1.92 2.81 2.85
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 6.7% 5.9% 5.0%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 15.4% 7.3%
Turnovers Miami Virginia Tech
Turnovers 0 4
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 17.1
Turnover Margin Miami +4
Exp. TO Margin Miami +0.66
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Miami +3.34
TO Points Margin Miami +17.1 points
Situational Miami Virginia Tech
Q1 S&P 0.655 0.757
Q2 S&P 0.620 0.521
Q3 S&P 0.442 0.555
Q4 S&P 0.540 0.657
1st Down S&P 0.613 0.674
2nd Down S&P 0.535 0.636
3rd Down S&P 0.585 0.754
Projected Scoring Margin: Miami by 19.2
Actual Scoring Margin: Miami by 10

Miami has perfected the art of playing as well as or better than the opponent but creating/receiving bad breaks and losing. On Saturday, the shoe was on the foot of Miami's opponent.