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Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Predicted WP |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
|
1 |
181 |
Michigan |
4 |
2 |
47 |
4 |
Blake O'Neill Rush for -15, FUMBLE |
0.727 |
-0.727 |
|
2 |
13 |
Michigan |
4 |
19 |
82 |
1 |
PUNT |
0.411 |
0.192 |
|
3 |
146 |
Michigan State |
1 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
LJ Scott Rush for 1, TOUCHDOWN |
0.804 |
-0.137 |
|
4 |
4 |
Michigan State |
3 |
12 |
77 |
1 |
Connor Cook Pass to Aaron Burbridge for 27, FIRST DOWN |
0.620 |
-0.134 |
|
5 |
103 |
Michigan State |
2 |
8 |
30 |
3 |
Connor Cook Pass to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 30, TOUCHDOWN |
0.812 |
-0.115 |
From Matt Mills: My model estimates that Michigan had a 73% chance of winning the game before the punt. This is incorrect. There ain't no getting around that. I tuned the model on all plays and didn't really spend any extra time fine tuning for end of game situations. The model is built to be the most accurate it can in all situations, not just focusing on end of game scenarios. However, it can obviously use some more work on these situations.
Michigan State 27, Michigan 23
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Michigan | Michigan State | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 58 | 72 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 38.3 | 24.4 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 13 | 13 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
5 | 6 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.60 | 3.50 | 4.77 |
| Leverage Rate** | 62.1% | 58.3% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.522 | 0.552 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Michigan | Michigan State | |
| Total | 24.7 | 34.1 | |
| Rushing | 8.1 | 7.6 | |
| Passing | 16.6 | 26.5 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Michigan | Michigan State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 32.8% | 31.9% | 41.6% |
| Rushing (close) | 40.0% | 23.3% | 42.4% |
| Passing (close) | 25.0% | 38.1% | 40.7% |
| Standard Downs | 41.7% | 38.1% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 18.2% | 23.3% | 29.9% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Michigan | Michigan State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.30 | 1.48 | 1.27 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.68 | 1.09 | 1.08 |
| Passing (close) | 2.37 | 1.66 | 1.47 |
| Standard Downs | 0.97 | 1.42 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 2.57 | 1.64 | 1.79 |
| Line Stats | Michigan | Michigan State | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 1.41 | 2.41 | 2.85 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 11.8% | 5.0% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 17.7% | 4.0% | 7.3% |
| Turnovers | Michigan | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 8.3 | 0.0 |
| Turnover Margin | Michigan State +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Michigan +0.3 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Michigan State +1.3 | |
| TO Points Margin | Michigan State +8.3 points | |
| Situational | Michigan | Michigan State |
| Q1 S&P | 0.644 | 0.459 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.530 | 0.474 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.655 | 0.696 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.433 | 0.596 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.500 | 0.563 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.594 | 0.623 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.348 | 0.576 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Michigan State by 17.7 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Michigan State by 4 | ||
Michigan State could have put the game away before the ending had the Spartans converted chances better than the Wolverines did, but finishing and field position were very much Michigan's friends in this one. (They usually are.) And then ... the ending.