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Michigan State 27, Michigan 23: A chart doesn't really do it justice

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

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Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Predicted WP

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

181

Michigan

4

2

47

4

Blake O'Neill Rush for -15, FUMBLE

0.727

-0.727

2

13

Michigan

4

19

82

1

PUNT

0.411

0.192

3

146

Michigan State

1

1

1

4

LJ Scott Rush for 1, TOUCHDOWN

0.804

-0.137

4

4

Michigan State

3

12

77

1

Connor Cook Pass to Aaron Burbridge for 27, FIRST DOWN

0.620

-0.134

5

103

Michigan State

2

8

30

3

Connor Cook Pass to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 30, TOUCHDOWN

0.812

-0.115

From Matt Mills: My model estimates that Michigan had a 73% chance of winning the game before the punt. This is incorrect. There ain't no getting around that. I tuned the model on all plays and didn't really spend any extra time fine tuning for end of game situations. The model is built to be the most accurate it can in all situations, not just focusing on end of game scenarios. However, it can obviously use some more work on these situations.

Michigan State 27, Michigan 23

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Michigan Michigan State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 58 72
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 38.3 24.4 29.6
Possessions 13 13
Scoring Opportunities*
5 6
Points Per Opportunity 4.60 3.50 4.77
Leverage Rate** 62.1% 58.3% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.522 0.552 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Michigan Michigan State
Total 24.7 34.1
Rushing 8.1 7.6
Passing 16.6 26.5
Success Rate (what's this?) Michigan Michigan State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 32.8% 31.9% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 40.0% 23.3% 42.4%
Passing (close) 25.0% 38.1% 40.7%
Standard Downs 41.7% 38.1% 47.1%
Passing Downs 18.2% 23.3% 29.9%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Michigan Michigan State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.30 1.48 1.27
Rushing (close) 0.68 1.09 1.08
Passing (close) 2.37 1.66 1.47
Standard Downs 0.97 1.42 1.11
Passing Downs 2.57 1.64 1.79
Line Stats Michigan Michigan State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 1.41 2.41 2.85
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 11.8% 5.0%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 17.7% 4.0% 7.3%
Turnovers Michigan Michigan State
Turnovers 1 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 8.3 0.0
Turnover Margin Michigan State +1
Exp. TO Margin Michigan +0.3
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Michigan State +1.3
TO Points Margin Michigan State +8.3 points
Situational Michigan Michigan State
Q1 S&P 0.644 0.459
Q2 S&P 0.530 0.474
Q3 S&P 0.655 0.696
Q4 S&P 0.433 0.596
1st Down S&P 0.500 0.563
2nd Down S&P 0.594 0.623
3rd Down S&P 0.348 0.576
Projected Scoring Margin: Michigan State by 17.7
Actual Scoring Margin: Michigan State by 4

Michigan State could have put the game away before the ending had the Spartans converted chances better than the Wolverines did, but finishing and field position were very much Michigan's friends in this one. (They usually are.) And then ... the ending.