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LSU 35, Florida 28: An even game decided by trickeration

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Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

lsuufwp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Predicted WP

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

136

LSU

4

13

16

4

Trent Domingue Rush for 16, TOUCHDOWN

0.634

0.247

2

122

LSU

4

1

76

3

PUNT

0.791

-0.216

3

6

Florida

4

3

57

1

PUNT

0.590

-0.195

4

175

Florida

4

10

51

4

Treon Harris Pass to Antonio Callaway for 0

0.889

0.111

5

23

Florida

3

12

81

1

Treon Harris Pass to Brandon Powell for 16, FIRST DOWN

0.376

-0.098

LSU 35, Florida 28

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Florida LSU Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 63 63
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 28.3 27.3 29.6
Possessions 12 11
Scoring Opportunities*
4 6
Points Per Opportunity 5.25 5.83 4.77
Leverage Rate** 66.7% 63.5% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.541 0.647 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Florida LSU
Total 28.8 40.7
Rushing 8.4 20.6
Passing 20.3 20.2
Success Rate (what's this?) Florida LSU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 34.9% 44.4% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 38.5% 43.2% 42.4%
Passing (close) 32.4% 47.4% 40.7%
Standard Downs 38.1% 52.5% 47.1%
Passing Downs 28.6% 30.4% 29.9%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Florida LSU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.31 1.46 1.27
Rushing (close) 0.84 1.08 1.08
Passing (close) 1.69 2.24 1.47
Standard Downs 1.01 1.20 1.11
Passing Downs 2.09 2.22 1.79
Line Stats Florida LSU Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.51 3.34 2.85
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 20.0% 0.0% 5.0%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 5.9% 0.0% 7.3%
Turnovers Florida LSU
Turnovers 0 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 5.3
Turnover Margin Florida +1
Exp. TO Margin Florida +0.14
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Florida +0.86
TO Points Margin Florida +5.3 points
Situational Florida LSU
Q1 S&P 0.482 0.613
Q2 S&P 0.727 0.855
Q3 S&P 0.612 0.457
Q4 S&P 0.535 0.520
1st Down S&P 0.559 0.662
2nd Down S&P 0.584 0.633
3rd Down S&P 0.581 0.503
Projected Scoring Margin: LSU by 6.7
Actual Scoring Margin: LSU by 7

Man oh man, what an even game. LSU was more efficient on standard downs, and the Tigers' pass rush was more successful, but that early turnover almost caught Florida up, and in the end, the fake field goal made the difference. Really, really fun game.