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In one of today's Win Projection Wednesday features, I looked at the battle for the Group of 5's major bowl spot. In that piece, I said the following:
Current evidence will overtake past evidence soon, and at that time, teams like Bowling Green (dragged down by a prolonged funk last season, which affected projections) and Houston could rise swiftly while others (Marshall, maybe?) drop. Even while acknowledging the conservatism in these projections, a few things become clear.
Out of simple curiosity, I thought I'd take a look at the teams most likely to move up or down in the coming weeks as projections are phased out. Weekly picks will still come out tomorrow, but in the meantime, here's a list of FBS teams with how much they have over- or underachieved their projections (Week 1 picks, Week 2 picks) so far. Obviously more goes into the ratings than final scores, so this list provides no guarantees. But the teams on both ends of the list are pretty likely to shifts in (or out of) their favor.
A) Preseason projections are about the only thing preventing Wyoming from ranking dead last in FBS right now.
B) Season started two weeks ago, Arizona State.
C) BREAK UP THE ILLINI.
| Team | Week 1 | Week 2 | Average | Rk |
| Illinois | 43.3 | 23.1 | 33.2 | 1 |
| Georgia Tech | 35.4 | 26.7 | 31.0 | 2 |
| Memphis | 42.0 | 19.9 | 30.9 | 3 |
| California | 39.6 | 20.4 | 30.0 | 4 |
| Ole Miss | 40.3 | 18.4 | 29.4 | 5 |
| Air Force | 42.5 | 13.8 | 28.1 | 6 |
| South Florida | 37.0 | 14.3 | 25.7 | 7 |
| Boston College | 2.6 | 43.9 | 23.2 | 8 |
| Buffalo | 31.6 | 14.7 | 23.2 | 9 |
| Duke | 22.5 | 22.9 | 22.7 | 10 |
| USC | 32.0 | 11.2 | 21.6 | 11 |
| Middle Tennessee | 32.6 | 9.0 | 20.8 | 12 |
| Toledo | 20.4 | 20.4 | 13 | |
| Navy | 19.8 | 19.8 | 14 | |
| Syracuse | 31.3 | 7.6 | 19.4 | 15 |
| Eastern Michigan | 4.5 | 34.2 | 19.3 | 16 |
| Northwestern | 19.9 | 16.8 | 18.4 | 17 |
| Ohio | 12.8 | 23.7 | 18.2 | 18 |
| Rice | 30.0 | 4.3 | 17.2 | 19 |
| Washington | 10.4 | 23.1 | 16.7 | 20 |
| Houston | 13.2 | 20.3 | 16.7 | 21 |
| Temple | 20.2 | 12.6 | 16.4 | 22 |
| Texas A&M | 21.8 | 10.7 | 16.3 | 23 |
| Rutgers | 33.3 | -1.5 | 15.9 | 24 |
| West Virginia | 36.1 | -5.0 | 15.5 | 25 |
| Miami-FL | 21.8 | 8.6 | 15.2 | 26 |
| New Mexico | 47.9 | -18.7 | 14.6 | 27 |
| Louisiana Tech | 27.7 | 0.5 | 14.1 | 28 |
| Texas Tech | -2.2 | 28.5 | 13.1 | 29 |
| Appalachian State | 32.2 | -6.3 | 12.9 | 30 |
| BYU | 9.1 | 15.6 | 12.4 | 31 |
| Colorado State | 25.5 | -1.3 | 12.1 | 32 |
| Florida | 27.2 | -4.9 | 11.1 | 33 |
| Kentucky | 0.2 | 20.8 | 10.5 | 34 |
| Hawaii | 11.9 | 9.0 | 10.5 | 35 |
| Notre Dame | 24.4 | -3.4 | 10.5 | 36 |
| Southern Miss | 1.5 | 19.2 | 10.3 | 37 |
| Oklahoma | 12.6 | 6.9 | 9.7 | 38 |
| Clemson | 12.2 | 6.3 | 9.3 | 39 |
| TCU | -3.0 | 21.4 | 9.2 | 40 |
| Tulsa | -0.5 | 18.7 | 9.1 | 41 |
| Charlotte | 4.6 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 42 |
| NC State | 9.2 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 43 |
| Wisconsin | -7.7 | 24.8 | 8.5 | 44 |
| Bowling Green | -14.0 | 30.7 | 8.3 | 45 |
| Wake Forest | 23.8 | -7.6 | 8.1 | 46 |
| UTSA | 14.9 | 0.9 | 7.9 | 47 |
| Troy | -9.2 | 23.3 | 7.0 | 48 |
| Iowa | 2.4 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 49 |
| UL-Lafayette | -0.2 | 11.2 | 5.5 | 50 |
| Colorado | -11.9 | 21.6 | 4.8 | 51 |
| San Jose State | 23.4 | -13.8 | 4.8 | 52 |
| North Carolina | 1.0 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 53 |
| Kansas State | 9.0 | -0.9 | 4.0 | 54 |
| Purdue | 0.4 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 55 |
| Tennessee | 14.0 | -6.9 | 3.6 | 56 |
| UNLV | 6.6 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 57 |
| UL-Monroe | -10.2 | 16.7 | 3.3 | 58 |
| Florida International | 11.9 | -5.4 | 3.3 | 59 |
| Vanderbilt | 0.6 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 60 |
| Michigan | -5.0 | 10.9 | 2.9 | 61 |
| Iowa State | 15.3 | -9.8 | 2.8 | 62 |
| Utah | 5.0 | -0.1 | 2.5 | 63 |
| Georgia | 10.2 | -5.5 | 2.4 | 64 |
| Florida State | 18.9 | -14.3 | 2.3 | 65 |
| Minnesota | 3.0 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 66 |
| UCLA | 3.3 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 67 |
| Nebraska | -9.1 | 12.3 | 1.6 | 68 |
| Michigan State | -1.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 69 |
| Central Michigan | -0.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 70 |
| Army | -2.2 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 71 |
| SMU | -9.1 | 10.2 | 0.5 | 72 |
| Mississippi State | -1.5 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 73 |
| Texas State | -18.9 | 19.4 | 0.3 | 74 |
| Virginia | -3.3 | 3.4 | 0.1 | 75 |
| Cincinnati | 12.0 | -12.6 | -0.3 | 76 |
| Western Kentucky | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.6 | 77 |
| Alabama | 7.7 | -9.0 | -0.7 | 78 |
| Ohio State | 7.6 | -9.0 | -0.7 | 79 |
| Arizona | -14.9 | 13.4 | -0.8 | 80 |
| Georgia State | -4.6 | 1.8 | -1.4 | 81 |
| Connecticut | 0.9 | -3.8 | -1.5 | 82 |
| Baylor | 9.1 | -12.4 | -1.6 | 83 |
| Indiana | -8.7 | 5.4 | -1.7 | 84 |
| LSU | -2.1 | -2.1 | 85 | |
| Missouri | 2.7 | -6.9 | -2.1 | 86 |
| San Diego State | 14.8 | -20.4 | -2.8 | 87 |
| Oklahoma State | 0.5 | -6.5 | -3.0 | 88 |
| Oregon State | 4.7 | -10.9 | -3.1 | 89 |
| East Carolina | -11.4 | 4.9 | -3.2 | 90 |
| Northern Illinois | -6.6 | -0.1 | -3.4 | 91 |
| Fresno State | 11.1 | -18.4 | -3.7 | 92 |
| Florida Atlantic | 0.5 | -8.6 | -4.0 | 93 |
| Old Dominion | -4.5 | -4.3 | -4.4 | 94 |
| Arkansas | 11.2 | -20.4 | -4.6 | 95 |
| Virginia Tech | -7.6 | -2.0 | -4.8 | 96 |
| Miami-OH | 14.3 | -24.8 | -5.2 | 97 |
| Akron | -12.6 | 1.4 | -5.6 | 98 |
| Pittsburgh | -11.5 | -1.4 | -6.5 | 99 |
| South Alabama | -0.7 | -12.3 | -6.5 | 100 |
| Georgia Southern | -36.1 | 23.0 | -6.6 | 101 |
| Stanford | -19.9 | 6.0 | -6.9 | 102 |
| Maryland | 15.1 | -30.7 | -7.8 | 103 |
| Nevada | -3.4 | -13.4 | -8.4 | 104 |
| Utah State | -17.0 | 0.1 | -8.4 | 105 |
| Ball State | -6.2 | -10.7 | -8.5 | 106 |
| Oregon | -13.2 | -3.7 | -8.5 | 107 |
| Central Florida | -11.9 | -6.0 | -8.9 | 108 |
| North Texas | -10.2 | -10.2 | 109 | |
| Louisville | -1.2 | -20.3 | -10.8 | 110 |
| South Carolina | -1.0 | -20.8 | -10.9 | 111 |
| Western Michigan | 1.0 | -23.0 | -11.0 | 112 |
| Washington State | -24.8 | 1.5 | -11.6 | 113 |
| Idaho | -12.8 | -11.2 | -12.0 | 114 |
| Marshall | -0.4 | -23.7 | -12.0 | 115 |
| Kansas | -5.3 | -19.9 | -12.6 | 116 |
| Arkansas State | -32.0 | 6.9 | -12.6 | 117 |
| Boise State | -10.4 | -15.6 | -13.0 | 118 |
| Texas | -24.4 | -4.3 | -14.3 | 119 |
| New Mexico State | -27.2 | -1.8 | -14.5 | 120 |
| Auburn | 1.2 | -32.3 | -15.5 | 121 |
| Penn State | -20.2 | -14.7 | -17.5 | 122 |
| UTEP | -11.2 | -28.5 | -19.9 | 123 |
| Massachusetts | -21.6 | -21.6 | 124 | |
| Kent State | -43.3 | -0.9 | -22.1 | 125 |
| Arizona State | -21.8 | -25.2 | -23.5 | 126 |
| Tulane | -22.5 | -26.7 | -24.6 | 127 |
| Wyoming | -20.1 | -34.2 | -27.1 | 128 |
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