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Illinois has been college football's biggest early overachiever

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Arizona State, meanwhile, is one of the biggest underachievers.

Mike Granse-USA TODAY Sports

In one of today's Win Projection Wednesday features, I looked at the battle for the Group of 5's major bowl spot. In that piece, I said the following:

Current evidence will overtake past evidence soon, and at that time, teams like Bowling Green (dragged down by a prolonged funk last season, which affected projections) and Houston could rise swiftly while others (Marshall, maybe?) drop. Even while acknowledging the conservatism in these projections, a few things become clear.

Out of simple curiosity, I thought I'd take a look at the teams most likely to move up or down in the coming weeks as projections are phased out. Weekly picks will still come out tomorrow, but in the meantime, here's a list of FBS teams with how much they have over- or underachieved their projections (Week 1 picks, Week 2 picks) so far. Obviously more goes into the ratings than final scores, so this list provides no guarantees. But the teams on both ends of the list are pretty likely to shifts in (or out of) their favor.

A) Preseason projections are about the only thing preventing Wyoming from ranking dead last in FBS right now.

B) Season started two weeks ago, Arizona State.

C) BREAK UP THE ILLINI.

Team Week 1 Week 2 Average Rk
Illinois 43.3 23.1 33.2 1
Georgia Tech 35.4 26.7 31.0 2
Memphis 42.0 19.9 30.9 3
California 39.6 20.4 30.0 4
Ole Miss 40.3 18.4 29.4 5
Air Force 42.5 13.8 28.1 6
South Florida 37.0 14.3 25.7 7
Boston College 2.6 43.9 23.2 8
Buffalo 31.6 14.7 23.2 9
Duke 22.5 22.9 22.7 10
USC 32.0 11.2 21.6 11
Middle Tennessee 32.6 9.0 20.8 12
Toledo 20.4 20.4 13
Navy 19.8 19.8 14
Syracuse 31.3 7.6 19.4 15
Eastern Michigan 4.5 34.2 19.3 16
Northwestern 19.9 16.8 18.4 17
Ohio 12.8 23.7 18.2 18
Rice 30.0 4.3 17.2 19
Washington 10.4 23.1 16.7 20
Houston 13.2 20.3 16.7 21
Temple 20.2 12.6 16.4 22
Texas A&M 21.8 10.7 16.3 23
Rutgers 33.3 -1.5 15.9 24
West Virginia 36.1 -5.0 15.5 25
Miami-FL 21.8 8.6 15.2 26
New Mexico 47.9 -18.7 14.6 27
Louisiana Tech 27.7 0.5 14.1 28
Texas Tech -2.2 28.5 13.1 29
Appalachian State 32.2 -6.3 12.9 30
BYU 9.1 15.6 12.4 31
Colorado State 25.5 -1.3 12.1 32
Florida 27.2 -4.9 11.1 33
Kentucky 0.2 20.8 10.5 34
Hawaii 11.9 9.0 10.5 35
Notre Dame 24.4 -3.4 10.5 36
Southern Miss 1.5 19.2 10.3 37
Oklahoma 12.6 6.9 9.7 38
Clemson 12.2 6.3 9.3 39
TCU -3.0 21.4 9.2 40
Tulsa -0.5 18.7 9.1 41
Charlotte 4.6 12.7 8.6 42
NC State 9.2 7.9 8.6 43
Wisconsin -7.7 24.8 8.5 44
Bowling Green -14.0 30.7 8.3 45
Wake Forest 23.8 -7.6 8.1 46
UTSA 14.9 0.9 7.9 47
Troy -9.2 23.3 7.0 48
Iowa 2.4 9.8 6.1 49
UL-Lafayette -0.2 11.2 5.5 50
Colorado -11.9 21.6 4.8 51
San Jose State 23.4 -13.8 4.8 52
North Carolina 1.0 7.2 4.1 53
Kansas State 9.0 -0.9 4.0 54
Purdue 0.4 6.9 3.6 55
Tennessee 14.0 -6.9 3.6 56
UNLV 6.6 0.0 3.3 57
UL-Monroe -10.2 16.7 3.3 58
Florida International 11.9 -5.4 3.3 59
Vanderbilt 0.6 5.5 3.1 60
Michigan -5.0 10.9 2.9 61
Iowa State 15.3 -9.8 2.8 62
Utah 5.0 -0.1 2.5 63
Georgia 10.2 -5.5 2.4 64
Florida State 18.9 -14.3 2.3 65
Minnesota 3.0 1.3 2.2 66
UCLA 3.3 0.0 1.7 67
Nebraska -9.1 12.3 1.6 68
Michigan State -1.0 3.7 1.3 69
Central Michigan -0.5 2.4 0.9 70
Army -2.2 3.8 0.8 71
SMU -9.1 10.2 0.5 72
Mississippi State -1.5 2.1 0.3 73
Texas State -18.9 19.4 0.3 74
Virginia -3.3 3.4 0.1 75
Cincinnati 12.0 -12.6 -0.3 76
Western Kentucky -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 77
Alabama 7.7 -9.0 -0.7 78
Ohio State 7.6 -9.0 -0.7 79
Arizona -14.9 13.4 -0.8 80
Georgia State -4.6 1.8 -1.4 81
Connecticut 0.9 -3.8 -1.5 82
Baylor 9.1 -12.4 -1.6 83
Indiana -8.7 5.4 -1.7 84
LSU -2.1 -2.1 85
Missouri 2.7 -6.9 -2.1 86
San Diego State 14.8 -20.4 -2.8 87
Oklahoma State 0.5 -6.5 -3.0 88
Oregon State 4.7 -10.9 -3.1 89
East Carolina -11.4 4.9 -3.2 90
Northern Illinois -6.6 -0.1 -3.4 91
Fresno State 11.1 -18.4 -3.7 92
Florida Atlantic 0.5 -8.6 -4.0 93
Old Dominion -4.5 -4.3 -4.4 94
Arkansas 11.2 -20.4 -4.6 95
Virginia Tech -7.6 -2.0 -4.8 96
Miami-OH 14.3 -24.8 -5.2 97
Akron -12.6 1.4 -5.6 98
Pittsburgh -11.5 -1.4 -6.5 99
South Alabama -0.7 -12.3 -6.5 100
Georgia Southern -36.1 23.0 -6.6 101
Stanford -19.9 6.0 -6.9 102
Maryland 15.1 -30.7 -7.8 103
Nevada -3.4 -13.4 -8.4 104
Utah State -17.0 0.1 -8.4 105
Ball State -6.2 -10.7 -8.5 106
Oregon -13.2 -3.7 -8.5 107
Central Florida -11.9 -6.0 -8.9 108
North Texas -10.2 -10.2 109
Louisville -1.2 -20.3 -10.8 110
South Carolina -1.0 -20.8 -10.9 111
Western Michigan 1.0 -23.0 -11.0 112
Washington State -24.8 1.5 -11.6 113
Idaho -12.8 -11.2 -12.0 114
Marshall -0.4 -23.7 -12.0 115
Kansas -5.3 -19.9 -12.6 116
Arkansas State -32.0 6.9 -12.6 117
Boise State -10.4 -15.6 -13.0 118
Texas -24.4 -4.3 -14.3 119
New Mexico State -27.2 -1.8 -14.5 120
Auburn 1.2 -32.3 -15.5 121
Penn State -20.2 -14.7 -17.5 122
UTEP -11.2 -28.5 -19.9 123
Massachusetts -21.6 -21.6 124
Kent State -43.3 -0.9 -22.1 125
Arizona State -21.8 -25.2 -23.5 126
Tulane -22.5 -26.7 -24.6 127
Wyoming -20.1 -34.2 -27.1 128

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