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Miami 44, Florida Atlantic 20: The god of turnovers had no interest in this staying too close

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Miami 44, FAU 20

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics FAU Miami Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 67 78
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 79.3%
Avg Starting FP 20.9 41.7 29.7
Possessions 11 12
Scoring Opportunities*
4 10
Points Per Opportunity 5.00 4.40 4.80
Leverage Rate** 79.3% 80.7% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.623 0.654 0.584
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) FAU Miami
Total 32.5 51.4
Rushing 19.5 21.2
Passing 13.0 30.2
Success Rate (what's this?) FAU Miami Nat'l Avg
All (close) 51.7% 49.1% 41.3%
Rushing (close) 56.7% 48.3% 42.5%
Passing (close) 46.4% 50.0% 40.1%
Standard Downs 52.2% 50.0% 46.8%
Passing Downs 50.0% 45.5% 29.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) FAU Miami Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.04 1.31 1.27
Rushing (close) 1.13 1.04 1.06
Passing (close) 0.94 1.57 1.49
Standard Downs 0.82 1.10 1.10
Passing Downs 1.93 2.25 1.83
Line Stats FAU Miami Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 4.27 3.50 2.80
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 10.0% 0.0% 5.1%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 14.3% 6.6%
Turnovers FAU Miami
Turnovers 5 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 19.6 0.0
Turnover Margin Miami +5
Exp. TO Margin Miami +1.02
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Miami +3.98
TO Points Margin Miami +19.6 points
Situational FAU Miami
Q1 S&P 0.719 0.744
Q2 S&P 0.668 0.436
Q3 S&P 0.482 0.731
Q4 S&P 0.293 0.688
1st Down S&P 0.583 0.718
2nd Down S&P 0.568 0.675
3rd Down S&P 0.612 0.751
Projected Scoring Margin: Miami by 38.5
Actual Scoring Margin: Miami by 24

I just wanted to see what this one looked like laid out. Miami's defense found its legs in the second half, which likely would have ensured that the 'Canes would have won even without massive turnovers luck, but ... damn, that's some massive turnovers luck. (And even with the second-half improvement, those are some pretty high FAU success rates.)

The pass Brad Kaaya made to Joe Yearby in the third quarter -- the one that resulted in a 52-yard gain to the FAU 1 -- was maybe the prettiest pass I saw, and wow, did Yearby have himself a day (18 carries for 146 yards, 3 catches for 97). But while the Miami offense has found more of an early rhythm than I thought, those early defensive issues were a little scary.