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Miami 44, FAU 20
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | FAU | Miami | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 67 | 78 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 79.3% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 20.9 | 41.7 | 29.7 |
| Possessions | 11 | 12 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
4 | 10 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.00 | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| Leverage Rate** | 79.3% | 80.7% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.623 | 0.654 | 0.584 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | FAU | Miami | |
| Total | 32.5 | 51.4 | |
| Rushing | 19.5 | 21.2 | |
| Passing | 13.0 | 30.2 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | FAU | Miami | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 51.7% | 49.1% | 41.3% |
| Rushing (close) | 56.7% | 48.3% | 42.5% |
| Passing (close) | 46.4% | 50.0% | 40.1% |
| Standard Downs | 52.2% | 50.0% | 46.8% |
| Passing Downs | 50.0% | 45.5% | 29.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | FAU | Miami | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.04 | 1.31 | 1.27 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.13 | 1.04 | 1.06 |
| Passing (close) | 0.94 | 1.57 | 1.49 |
| Standard Downs | 0.82 | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| Passing Downs | 1.93 | 2.25 | 1.83 |
| Line Stats | FAU | Miami | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 4.27 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 10.0% | 0.0% | 5.1% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 14.3% | 6.6% |
| Turnovers | FAU | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 5 | 0 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 19.6 | 0.0 |
| Turnover Margin | Miami +5 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Miami +1.02 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Miami +3.98 | |
| TO Points Margin | Miami +19.6 points | |
| Situational | FAU | Miami |
| Q1 S&P | 0.719 | 0.744 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.668 | 0.436 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.482 | 0.731 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.293 | 0.688 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.583 | 0.718 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.568 | 0.675 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.612 | 0.751 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Miami by 38.5 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Miami by 24 | ||
I just wanted to see what this one looked like laid out. Miami's defense found its legs in the second half, which likely would have ensured that the 'Canes would have won even without massive turnovers luck, but ... damn, that's some massive turnovers luck. (And even with the second-half improvement, those are some pretty high FAU success rates.)
The pass Brad Kaaya made to Joe Yearby in the third quarter -- the one that resulted in a 52-yard gain to the FAU 1 -- was maybe the prettiest pass I saw, and wow, did Yearby have himself a day (18 carries for 146 yards, 3 catches for 97). But while the Miami offense has found more of an early rhythm than I thought, those early defensive issues were a little scary.
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