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USC 59, Idaho 9
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Idaho | USC | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 77 | 74 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 30.5% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 24.1 | 22.2 | 29.7 |
| Possessions | 13 | 13 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
3 | 9 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 3.33 | 6.56 | 4.80 |
| Leverage Rate** | 55.0% | 92.3% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.493 | 0.906 | 0.584 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Idaho | USC | |
| Total | 26.8 | 69.9 | |
| Rushing | 6.8 | 27.3 | |
| Passing | 20.0 | 42.6 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Idaho | USC | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 25.0% | 80.8% | 41.3% |
| Rushing (close) | 22.2% | 76.9% | 42.5% |
| Passing (close) | 27.3% | 84.6% | 40.1% |
| Standard Downs | 27.3% | 87.5% | 46.8% |
| Passing Downs | 22.2% | 0.0% | 29.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Idaho | USC | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.47 | 1.30 | 1.27 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.18 | 1.16 | 1.06 |
| Passing (close) | 1.66 | 1.42 | 1.49 |
| Standard Downs | 1.58 | 1.28 | 1.10 |
| Passing Downs | 1.29 | 0.00 | 1.83 |
| Line Stats | Idaho | USC | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.51 | 4.18 | 2.80 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.1% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.6% |
| Turnovers | Idaho | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Turnover Margin | +0 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | USC +0.51 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Idaho +0.51 | |
| TO Points Margin | +0 | |
| Situational | Idaho | USC |
| Q1 S&P | 0.493 | 0.954 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.377 | 0.792 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.625 | 1.101 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.386 | 0.650 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.488 | 0.844 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.516 | 0.908 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.509 | 0.799 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: USC by 43.1 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: USC by 50 | ||
This game went as expected. The USC offense remained explosive with six plays of 30+ yards in this game, which helps explain the high EqPts total. As I'd mentioned in last week's recap, Idaho gave up almost 4 big plays per game last year, so this was not a surprise. Great news going forward if USC can continue this pattern of explosiveness.
As great as big plays are, you also need to be able to convert third downs. The biggest wart for the USC starting offense so far is its 18-percent third down conversion rate. This matters as they go into this week facing a MUCH better defense (Stanford); the Cardinal will try to limit the big play and force the USC offense into more third-down situations. The 92.3% leverage rate is helpful because it shows that at least they're not getting into too many 3rd-and-longs.
The USC defense was ok. No turnovers in the game isn't great considering they're not getting many sacks -- just one this game by Su'a Cravens and two total on the season. However, holding the Vandals to 4.4 yards a play is good to see, highlighted by Idaho's 25% success rate.
Formations/Basics
| Idaho | USC | |||
| Backs-Wide | % of Plays | Yds/Play | % of Plays | Yds/Play |
| 0 backs, 4 wide | 3.9% | 8.0 | ||
| 0 backs, 5 wide | 1.3% | -2.0 | 1.4% | 12.0 |
| 1 back, 2 wide | 11.7% | 2.9 | 6.8% | 4.6 |
| 1 back, 3 wide | 42.9% | 3.3 | 23.0% | 7.9 |
| 1 back, 4 wide | 13.0% | 9.9 | 24.3% | 12.0 |
| 2 backs, 1 wide | 2.6% | 1.5 | ||
| 2 backs, 2 wide | 15.6% | 3.3 | 28.4% | 11.9 |
| 2 backs, 3 wide | 9.1% | 1.6 | 14.9% | 8.3 |
| No Huddle? | % of Plays | Yds/Play |
| Idaho | 38.2% | 5.3 |
| USC | 100.0% | 10.0 |
| Idaho | USC | |||
| Hash | % of Plays | Yds/Play | % of Plays | Yds/Play |
| Left | 42.1% | 4.3 | 44.6% | 10.2 |
| Middle | 19.7% | 5.4 | 12.2% | 10.7 |
| Right | 38.2% | 3.2 | 43.2% | 9.5 |
So Idaho, maybe simplify the playbook and personnel sets a bit? As for USC, 10 yards per play! The offense literally averaged a first down every time they snapped the ball, which is pretty fun. Obviously the six big plays weigh heavily on the average.
Passing
| Idaho | USC | |||||
| Passing | Comp Rt | Yds/Pass | Passing | Comp Rt | Yds/Pass | |
| Behind Line | 5-6, 39 yards | 83.3% | 6.5 | 10-11, 152 yards | 90.9% | 13.8 |
| 0 to 4 | 9-14, 78 yards | 64.3% | 5.6 | 8-10, 56 yards | 80.0% | 5.6 |
| 5 to 9 | 12-17, 91 yards | 70.6% | 5.4 | 6-7, 82 yards | 85.7% | 11.7 |
| 10 to 19 | 2-5, 30 yards | 40.0% | 6.0 | 3-5, 44 yards | 60.0% | 8.8 |
| 20 to 29 | 0-2, 0 yards | 0.0% | 0.0 | 1-1, 28 yards | 100.0% | 28.0 |
| 30-plus | 0-2, 0 yards | 0.0% | 0.0 | 2-3, 91 yards | 66.7% | 30.3 |
| Idaho | USC | |
| % Blitz: | 37.0% | 27.0% |
| Avg. Rushers | 4.4 | 4.3 |
| Passing (no blitz) | 19-29, 168 yards, 0 sacks, 5.8 yds. per att. | 23-27, 368 yards, 0 sacks, 13.6 yds. per att. |
| Passing (blitz) | 9-16, 70 yards, 1 sacks, 4.1 yds. per att. | 7-10, 85 yards, 0 sacks, 8.5 yds. per att. |
| Reason for INC/INT | Idaho | USC |
| QB Fault | 11 | 1 |
| Good Defense | 4 | 2 |
| WR Fault | 1 | 4 |
It would be pretty impressive for Cody Kessler to have a better game than this one for the rest of the season. His success on the deep ball -- categorized as 30+ yards -- was encouraging given the struggles against Arkansas State. The real star of the passing game was Juju Smith-Schuster, who had his best game as a Trojan so far: 10 receptions for 192 yards.
Taking his two deep passes out of the equation (44 yards in the air + after the catch for a TD and 41 yards in the air for a TD), what is most impressive about Smith-Schuster's game was him taking the shorter passes -- average distance traveled in the air: 2.6 yards -- and gaining an average of 10 yards after the catch.
Rushing
| Idaho | USC | |||
| Rush-Yds | YPC | Rush-Yds | YPC | |
| To Edge | 6-6 | 1.0 | 5-75 | 15.0 |
| Toward Tackle | 7-23 | 3.3 | 13-96 | 7.4 |
| Up Middle | 10-34 | 3.4 | 5-15 | 3.0 |
The running game excelled against Idaho, with only two runs getting no yardage, both by Ronald Jones II. However, he was also the most explosive with three runs over 10 yards. The usage pattern of the running backs, with Tre Madden and Justin Davis being the featured backs in the first and second quarters, was notable and what everyone imagined it would be the case coming into the season. Davis was excellent, with four out of his five carries going for 5+ yards for a total of 74 yards.
QB Activity
| Idaho | USC | |||||
| QB Move | Rushes-Yds | Passes-Yds | Sacks-Yds | Rushes-Yds | Passes-Yds | Sacks-Yds |
| Rollout | 1-8 | |||||
| Sack - in pocket | 1--8 | |||||
No sacks allowed! Kessler didn't face much of a pass rush this game, and the offensive line was vastly improved from that terrible first quarter against Arkansas State. Line play will be extremely important for USC against Stanford on Saturday, so they'll want to keep up the improvement on the offensive line side and perhaps look for a little improvement on the pass rush end.
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