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After a torrid start against the spread, the Week 1 F/+ picks kind of limped home on Saturday and finished just 20-17. That's 54%, which is pretty damn good over the course of a whole season, but ... starting out 10-3 or so certainly got my hopes up.
That said, the teams that were supposed to win, did. You're expected to get most of the head-to-head picks right in the early weeks, with so many FCS games in the mix, but still, going 74-11 (87%) is nice. And as we see here, a majority of those 11 losses game in virtual tossups.
| Win Prob. Range | Record | Win% |
| 50-59% | 4-7 | 36.4% |
| 60-69% | 12-0 | 100.0% |
| 70-79% | 17-3 | 85.0% |
| 80-89% | 25-1 | 96.2% |
| 90-99% | 16-0 | 100.0% |
So far, so good. On to this week's slate.
Thursday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 8:00 PM | FS1 | Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky | +1 | Western Kentucky (29.3-25.8) | 3.4 | 57.9% | Western Kentucky |
I'll say this: I know college football basically forfeited the Thursday night slate because of the NFL, but ... this game could be awfully entertaining. Close and potentially high scoring? Sounds like the perfect Thursday night game to me!
Friday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 8:00 PM | FS1 | Miami-FL at Florida Atlantic | +17.5 | Miami-FL (36.3-21.0) | 15.3 | 81.1% | Florida Atlantic |
| 9:00 PM | ESPN2 | Utah State at Utah | -14 | Utah (19.1-9.2) | 9.9 | 71.7% | Utah State |
I'm curious about FAU -- the Owls might actually be decent enough to hang around against Miami for a while. Meanwhile ... well ... if you like defense, Utah-USU is for you...
Saturday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 11:30 AM | ESPN2 | South Florida at Florida State | -28 | Florida State (44.0-9.5) | 34.4 | 97.7% | Florida State |
| 12:00 PM | CBSSN | Army at Connecticut | -7.5 | Connecticut (39.5-30.7) | 8.8 | 69.5% | Connecticut |
| 12:00 PM | BTN | Bowling Green at Maryland | -7.5 | Maryland (41.9-32.3) | 9.6 | 71.1% | Maryland |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Buffalo at Penn State | -21 | Penn State (40.6-12.7) | 27.8 | 94.6% | Penn State |
| 12:00 PM | ESPNN | Indiana State at Purdue | Purdue (41.7-24.6) | 17.1 | 83.9% | ||
| 12:00 PM | SECN | Jacksonville State at Auburn | Auburn (52.4-13.1) | 39.3 | 98.8% | ||
| 12:00 PM | BTN | Western Illinois at Illinois | Illinois (27.4-6.7) | 20.7 | 88.4% | ||
| 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Presbyterian at Charlotte | Charlotte (29.6-18.3) | 11.3 | 74.3% | ||
| 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Houston at Louisville | -13 | Louisville (42.9-25.7) | 17.3 | 84.1% | Louisville |
| 12:00 PM | FS1 | Kansas State at UTSA | +17 | Kansas State (39.6-11.7) | 27.9 | 94.6% | Kansas State |
| 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Miami-OH at Wisconsin | -32 | Wisconsin (47.6-14.4) | 33.2 | 97.3% | Wisconsin |
| 12:00 PM | ABC | Oregon State at Michigan | -16 | Michigan (25.5-8.2) | 17.3 | 84.1% | Michigan |
| 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Appalachian State at Clemson | -18 | Clemson (40.2-15.3) | 24.8 | 92.4% | Clemson |
| 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Wake Forest at Syracuse | -5 | Syracuse (24.0-18.8) | 5.2 | 61.8% | Syracuse |
| 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Howard at Boston College | Boston College (35.6-3.5) | 32.1 | 96.8% | ||
| 2:00 PM | Pac-12 | Sacramento State at Washington | Washington (31.1-5.3) | 25.8 | 93.2% | ||
| 2:00 PM | Pac-12 | Massachusetts at Colorado | -13 | Colorado (32.8-20.4) | 12.4 | 76.3% | Massachusetts |
| 3:00 PM | Fox | UTEP at Texas Tech | -21 | Texas Tech (52.3-31.7) | 20.6 | 88.3% | UTEP |
| 3:00 PM | Liberty at West Virginia | West Virginia (42.3-13.3) | 29.0 | 95.3% | |||
| 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Monmouth at Central Michigan | Central Michigan (37.6-18.9) | 18.6 | 85.9% | ||
| 3:30 PM | FS1 | Stephen F. Austin at TCU | TCU (47.4-5.8) | 41.6 | 99.2% | ||
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Furman at Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech (53.2-12.3) | 41.0 | 99.1% | ||
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Murray State at Northern Illinois | Northern Illinois (49.2-18.1) | 31.1 | 96.4% | ||
| 3:30 PM | Austin Peay at Southern Miss | Southern Miss (39.1-12.2) | 26.8 | 94.0% | |||
| 3:30 PM | ESPN2 | Fresno State at Ole Miss | -29 | Ole Miss (44.0-10.3) | 33.7 | 97.4% | Ole Miss |
| 3:30 PM | CBS | Georgia at Vanderbilt | +20.5 | Georgia (37.8-15.3) | 22.5 | 90.3% | Georgia |
| 3:30 PM | BTN | Hawaii at Ohio State | -40 | Ohio State (53.1-6.0) | 47.1 | 99.7% | Ohio State |
| 3:30 PM | CBSSN | Minnesota at Colorado State | +6 | Minnesota (23.3-21.7) | 1.6 | 53.7% | Colorado State |
| 3:30 PM | ABC | Notre Dame at Virginia | +13 | Notre Dame (35.3-25.0) | 10.3 | 72.5% | Virginia |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Tulane at Georgia Tech | -28.5 | Georgia Tech (38.5-10.1) | 28.4 | 95.0% | Tulane |
| 3:30 PM | ESPNU | Washington State at Rutgers | -2 | Washington State (33.8-32.4) | 1.4 | 53.3% | Washington State |
| 4:00 PM | Eastern Michigan at Wyoming | -13.5 | Wyoming (39.4-24.3) | 15.2 | 81.0% | Wyoming | |
| 4:00 PM | ESPNN | Eastern Illinois at Northwestern | Northwestern (33.7-9.5) | 24.1 | 91.9% | ||
| 4:00 PM | SECN | Middle Tennessee at Alabama | -35 | Alabama (52.7-16.7) | 36.0 | 98.1% | Alabama |
| 4:00 PM | SECN+ | Toledo vs. Arkansas | -21.5 | Arkansas (45.6-29.1) | 16.5 | 82.9% | Toledo |
| 4:45 PM | Fox | Iowa at Iowa State | +4 | Iowa (21.2-17.0) | 4.2 | 59.6% | Iowa |
| 5:00 PM | Pac-12 | San Diego State at California | -13.5 | California (24.0-16.3) | 7.7 | 67.2% | San Diego State |
| 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | Eastern Kentucky at NC State | NC State (47.2-20.3) | 26.9 | 94.0% | ||
| 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | NC A&T at North Carolina | North Carolina (43.6-11.8) | 31.8 | 96.7% | ||
| 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | NC Central at Duke | Duke (39.4-7.3) | 32.1 | 96.8% | ||
| 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | Delaware State at Kent State | Kent State (32.0--1.1) | 33.1 | 97.2% | ||
| 6:00 PM | ESPN | Oklahoma at Tennessee | +1 | Oklahoma (35.6-35.6) | 0.0 | 50.1% | Tennessee |
| 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | Pittsburgh at Akron | +13 | Pittsburgh (43.0-24.6) | 18.4 | 85.6% | Pittsburgh |
| 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | Western Michigan at Georgia Southern | +4.5 | Georgia Southern (26.2-23.2) | 3.0 | 56.9% | Georgia Southern |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Charleston Southern at Troy | Troy (36.2-31.4) | 4.8 | 61.0% | ||
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Northwestern State at UL-Lafayette | UL-Lafayette (40.6-24.8) | 15.8 | 82.0% | ||
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Prairie View A&M at Texas State | Texas State (41.4-21.9) | 19.5 | 87.0% | ||
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Nicholls State at UL-Monroe | UL-Monroe (43.4-13.2) | 30.3 | 96.0% | ||
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Marshall at Ohio | +3.5 | Marshall (39.3-26.6) | 12.7 | 76.8% | Marshall |
| 7:00 PM | CBSSN | Arizona at Nevada | +12 | Arizona (36.0-25.4) | 10.5 | 72.9% | Nevada |
| 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Ball State at Texas A&M | -30 | Texas A&M (39.6-17.3) | 22.3 | 90.1% | Ball State |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | East Carolina at Florida | -20.5 | Florida (41.1-29.3) | 11.8 | 75.3% | East Carolina |
| 7:00 PM | Norfolk State at Old Dominion | Old Dominion (39.9-21.6) | 18.3 | 85.5% | |||
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Memphis at Kansas | +13.5 | Memphis (37.5-25.5) | 12.0 | 75.7% | Kansas |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Missouri at Arkansas State | +10.5 | Missouri (32.6-18.6) | 14.0 | 79.0% | Missouri |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | North Texas at SMU | -4.5 | SMU (37.6-29.8) | 7.8 | 67.5% | SMU |
| 7:30 PM | FSN | Central Arkansas at Oklahoma State | Oklahoma State (44.0-13.5) | 30.4 | 96.1% | ||
| 7:30 PM | FSN | Lamar at Baylor | Baylor (59.2-11.8) | 47.4 | 99.7% | ||
| 7:30 PM | SECN | Kentucky at South Carolina | -7.5 | South Carolina (42.2-25.3) | 16.9 | 83.5% | South Carolina |
| 8:00 PM | Pac-12 | Idaho at USC | -43 | USC (52.9-14.1) | 38.8 | 98.8% | Idaho |
| 8:00 PM | ABC | Oregon at Michigan State | -4 | Oregon (40.4-39.7) | 0.7 | 51.6% | Oregon |
| 8:00 PM | LHN | Rice at Texas | -15.5 | Texas (38.1-19.7) | 18.5 | 85.7% | Texas |
| 8:00 PM | BTN | South Alabama at Nebraska | -27 | Nebraska (44.9-18.2) | 26.7 | 93.9% | South Alabama |
| 8:00 PM | BTN | Florida International at Indiana | -7.5 | Indiana (42.9-34.4) | 8.5 | 68.9% | Indiana |
| 8:00 PM | ESPN3 | Georgia State at New Mexico State | -7 | Georgia State (28.5-28.4) | 0.1 | 50.3% | Georgia State |
| 8:00 PM | ESPNN | Temple at Cincinnati | -7 | Cincinnati (29.0-24.3) | 4.7 | 60.7% | Temple |
| 8:00 PM | ESPN3 | Tulsa at New Mexico | -4 | Tulsa (23.6-23.3) | 0.3 | 50.7% | Tulsa |
| 9:15 PM | ESPN | LSU at Mississippi State | +5 | LSU (27.3-23.2) | 4.1 | 59.3% | Mississippi State |
| 10:15 PM | ESPN2 | Boise State at BYU | +3 | Boise State (25.4-20.7) | 4.6 | 60.6% | Boise State |
| 10:15 PM | ESPNU | San Jose State at Air Force | -6 | Air Force (41.6-34.3) | 7.2 | 66.2% | Air Force |
| 10:30 PM | FS1 | Central Florida at Stanford | -19 | Stanford (29.7-11.7) | 18.0 | 85.1% | Central Florida |
| 10:30 PM | CBSSN | UCLA at UNLV | +29 | UCLA (54.5-20.6) | 33.9 | 97.5% | UCLA |
| 11:00 PM | Pac-12 | Cal Poly at Arizona State | Arizona State (43.4-4.3) | 39.1 | 98.8% |
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