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Joshua S. Kelly-USA TODAY Sports

So it's been an interesting year so far. The F/+ picks started fast against the spread, then quickly mediocred out. Meanwhile ... they can't miss straight up. Granted, you should expect to get a vast majority of games right early on because of so many cupcake games, but 141-20 straight-up is still a solid 88%.

First, the spread numbers:

  • Week 1: 20-17 (54%)
  • Week 2: 25-26 (49%)
  • OVERALL: 45-43 (51%)

Impressively mediocre. But as I mentioned originally, with the way I redesigned S&P+, the spread performance seemed to oscillate between 49% and 55%. I guess 51%'s between that, huh? Regardless, I was most interesting in improving the performance of the win probabilities, since I use that so much in my analysis. Well ... I guess this is better than the alternative...

Straight up

Win Prob. Range Last Week Overall Win%
50-59% 8-1 12-8 60.0%
60-69% 8-2 20-2 90.9%
70-79% 8-2 25-5 83.3%
80-89% 12-4 37-5 88.1%
90-99% 31-0 47-0 100.0%

Based on the win probabilities at hand, I'd have expected to get about 81% of games right, and it's currently much better than that, but this is still reasonably within range. I would expect some of those 60-69 percenters to go the opposite way soon, but a fair start, I'd say.

Thursday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
7:30 PM ESPN Clemson at Louisville +6.5 Clemson (28.8-23.5) 5.4 62.2% Louisville

Really interesting Thursday game. Louisville's a bit of a mystery, and Clemson more than proved itself last week against Appalachian State. These have been perceived as two of the main ACC threats (non-FSU division), and this is Clemson's chance to prove itself (and Louisville's chance to bounce back after losing to Houston).

Friday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
8:00 PM ESPN Florida State at Boston College +7.5 Florida State (28.2-18.3) 10.0 71.7% Florida State
9:00 PM CBSSN Idaho State at Boise State Boise State (42.9-4.4) 38.5 98.7%
10:00 PM Pac-12 New Mexico at Arizona State -28 Arizona State (37.6-11.4) 26.3 93.5% New Mexico

ASU's been one of the nation's biggest early underachievers, but one would assume the Sun Devils will still beat UNM handily.

Saturday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
12:00 PM ABC Air Force at Michigan State -26 Michigan State (44.5-19.0) 25.5 93.0% Air Force
12:00 PM CSNC Buffalo at Florida Atlantic 0 Florida Atlantic (35.1-27.5) 7.6 66.9% Florida Atlantic
12:00 PM ESPN Connecticut at Missouri -21 Missouri (38.2-9.5) 28.7 95.1% Missouri
12:00 PM ESPN3 Savannah State at Akron Akron (36.9-10.1) 26.8 93.9%
12:00 PM ESPN2 Illinois at North Carolina -9.5 North Carolina (24.9-16.9) 8.0 67.9% Illinois
12:00 PM BTN Kent State at Minnesota -24 Minnesota (21.6-7.8) 13.8 78.8% Kent State
12:00 PM SECN Nevada at Texas A&M -34 Texas A&M (42.1-19.9) 22.3 90.1% Nevada
12:00 PM ESPNU South Florida at Maryland -7 Maryland (34.0-21.7) 12.3 76.1% Maryland
12:00 PM FS1 Tulsa at Oklahoma -31 Oklahoma (42.8-16.7) 26.2 93.5% Tulsa
12:00 PM BTN UNLV at Michigan -34 Michigan (40.0-9.3) 30.7 96.2% UNLV
12:00 PM CBSSN Wake Forest at Army +6 Wake Forest (36.0-29.8) 6.2 64.0% Wake Forest
12:30 PM ESPN3 Central Michigan at Syracuse -7 Syracuse (26.3-19.1) 7.2 66.2% Syracuse
12:30 PM ACC Northwestern at Duke -3.5 Duke (22.4-14.6) 7.8 67.4% Duke
2:00 PM ESPN3 SE Louisiana at Ohio Ohio (38.5-24.6) 13.9 78.9%
2:00 PM Pac-12 Georgia State at Oregon -45 Oregon (53.9-14.7) 39.2 98.8% Georgia State
2:30 PM FCSC Rice at North Texas +8 Rice (28.9-22.4) 6.6 64.8% North Texas
3:00 PM ESPN3 Ball State at Eastern Michigan +6 Ball State (46.4-30.0) 16.4 82.9% Ball State
3:00 PM FSN affiliates Louisiana Tech at Kansas State -9 Kansas State (35.6-24.1) 11.6 74.8% Kansas State
3:00 PM ESPN3 Memphis at Bowling Green +3 Memphis (36.8-31.2) 5.6 62.7% Memphis
3:00 PM ESPN3 Temple at Massachusetts +10.5 Temple (38.6-23.9) 14.7 80.3% Temple
3:30 PM BTN Troy at Wisconsin -35 Wisconsin (43.2-10.2) 33.0 97.2% Troy
3:30 PM CBS Auburn at LSU -7 LSU (32.3-26.4) 5.9 63.4% Auburn
3:30 PM ESPN3 Cincinnati at Miami-OH +19 Cincinnati (34.3-18.2) 16.1 82.4% Miami-OH
3:30 PM CBSSN East Carolina at Navy -4 Navy (35.0-26.6) 8.4 68.7% Navy
3:30 PM ESPN3 William & Mary at Virginia Virginia (44.0-17.8) 26.2 93.5%
3:30 PM ASN Norfolk State at Marshall Marshall (45.3-7.9) 37.4 98.5%
3:30 PM NBC Georgia Tech at Notre Dame +3 Notre Dame (31.9-29.9) 2.0 54.6% Notre Dame
3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Nebraska at Miami-FL -3.5 Miami-FL (31.4-27.7) 3.7 58.5% Miami-FL
3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Northern Illinois at Ohio State -35 Ohio State (46.7-14.9) 31.8 96.7% Northern Illinois
3:30 PM FS1 UTSA at Oklahoma State -24.5 Oklahoma State (45.4-15.1) 30.3 96.0% Oklahoma State
3:30 PM ESPNU Virginia Tech at Purdue +6 Virginia Tech (37.0-24.3) 12.7 76.8% Virginia Tech
4:00 PM SECN Northwestern State at Mississippi State Mississippi State (46.0-9.3) 36.8 98.3%
4:00 PM SECN+ Austin Peay at Vanderbilt Vanderbilt (41.2-3.5) 37.7 98.5%
4:00 PM ESPNN Western Kentucky at Indiana -1.5 Western Kentucky (36.0-33.0) 3.0 56.9% Western Kentucky
5:00 PM ESPN3 Wofford at Idaho Idaho (36.4-30.1) 6.2 64.1%
5:00 PM Pac-12 Utah State at Washington -5.5 Washington (21.4-18.0) 3.4 57.7% Utah State
6:00 PM ESPN3 The Citadel at Georgia Southern Georgia Southern (39.8-14.8) 25.0 92.6%
6:00 PM ESPN3 Furman at Central Florida Central Florida (37.6-10.1) 27.5 94.4%
6:00 PM $CSLive NCCU at Florida International Florida International (34.9-17.4) 17.5 84.4%
6:00 PM ESPN South Carolina at Georgia -17 Georgia (36.2-21.8) 14.4 79.7% South Carolina
7:00 PM $CSLive Charlotte at Middle Tennessee -19.5 Middle Tennessee (29.7-20.0) 9.7 71.2% Charlotte
7:00 PM ESPN3 Missouri State at Arkansas State Arkansas State (34.5-13.9) 20.6 88.3%
7:00 PM ESPNU Western Carolina at Tennessee Tennessee (46.2-8.8) 37.4 98.5%
7:00 PM ESPN3 Murray State at Western Michigan Western Michigan (44.1-16.2) 28.0 94.7%
7:00 PM ESPN3 Southern Miss at Texas State -3 Texas State (36.1-30.7) 5.4 62.3% Texas State
7:00 PM ESPN2 Texas Tech at Arkansas -11.5 Arkansas (45.8-29.8) 16.0 82.3% Arkansas
7:00 PM CBSSN Colorado vs. Colorado State +3 Colorado State (29.0-22.1) 6.9 65.5% Colorado State
7:00 PM ASN NC State at Old Dominion +19 NC State (34.6-21.4) 13.2 77.6% Old Dominion
7:30 PM Fox California at Texas +6.5 Texas (31.7-28.5) 3.2 57.4% Texas
7:30 PM SECN Florida at Kentucky +3 Florida (34.2-29.4) 4.7 60.8% Florida
8:00 PM ESPN3 Maine at Tulane Tulane (35.3-17.2) 18.1 85.2%
8:00 PM ESPNN Iowa State at Toledo -7.5 Toledo (30.8-21.5) 9.3 70.4% Toledo
8:00 PM BTN Pittsburgh at Iowa -5.5 Pittsburgh (27.6-27.5) 0.2 50.3% Pittsburgh
8:00 PM BTN Rutgers at Penn State -10 Penn State (36.1-20.2) 15.8 82.0% Penn State
8:00 PM Pac-12 San Jose State at Oregon State -7.5 Oregon State (29.3-23.0) 6.3 64.2% San Jose State
8:00 PM FSN SMU at TCU -37.5 TCU (47.8-10.7) 37.0 98.4% SMU
8:00 PM MWC Video South Alabama at San Diego State -17.5 San Diego State (33.5-18.5) 14.9 80.6% South Alabama
8:00 PM ABC Stanford at USC -10 USC (31.2-24.1) 7.1 66.0% Stanford
8:00 PM ESPN3 UTEP at New Mexico State +2.5 New Mexico State (39.1-37.9) 1.2 52.7% New Mexico State
8:30 PM Pac-12 Wyoming at Washington State -24 Washington State (43.5-25.0) 18.4 85.7% Wyoming
9:15 PM ESPN Ole Miss at Alabama -7 Alabama (33.5-25.8) 7.6 67.1% Alabama
10:30 PM FS1 BYU at UCLA -17 UCLA (36.9-20.0) 16.8 83.5% BYU
10:30 PM CBSSN Utah at Fresno State +15 Utah (34.4-20.0) 14.4 79.8% Fresno State
11:00 PM Pac-12 Northern Arizona at Arizona Arizona (47.4-10.7) 36.6 98.3%
11:59 PM MWC Video UC Davis at Hawaii Hawaii (31.0-13.3) 17.7 84.7%