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So it's been an interesting year so far. The F/+ picks started fast against the spread, then quickly mediocred out. Meanwhile ... they can't miss straight up. Granted, you should expect to get a vast majority of games right early on because of so many cupcake games, but 141-20 straight-up is still a solid 88%.
First, the spread numbers:
- Week 1: 20-17 (54%)
- Week 2: 25-26 (49%)
- OVERALL: 45-43 (51%)
Impressively mediocre. But as I mentioned originally, with the way I redesigned S&P+, the spread performance seemed to oscillate between 49% and 55%. I guess 51%'s between that, huh? Regardless, I was most interesting in improving the performance of the win probabilities, since I use that so much in my analysis. Well ... I guess this is better than the alternative...
Straight up
| Win Prob. Range | Last Week | Overall | Win% |
| 50-59% | 8-1 | 12-8 | 60.0% |
| 60-69% | 8-2 | 20-2 | 90.9% |
| 70-79% | 8-2 | 25-5 | 83.3% |
| 80-89% | 12-4 | 37-5 | 88.1% |
| 90-99% | 31-0 | 47-0 | 100.0% |
Based on the win probabilities at hand, I'd have expected to get about 81% of games right, and it's currently much better than that, but this is still reasonably within range. I would expect some of those 60-69 percenters to go the opposite way soon, but a fair start, I'd say.
Thursday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 7:30 PM | ESPN | Clemson at Louisville | +6.5 | Clemson (28.8-23.5) | 5.4 | 62.2% | Louisville |
Really interesting Thursday game. Louisville's a bit of a mystery, and Clemson more than proved itself last week against Appalachian State. These have been perceived as two of the main ACC threats (non-FSU division), and this is Clemson's chance to prove itself (and Louisville's chance to bounce back after losing to Houston).
Friday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 8:00 PM | ESPN | Florida State at Boston College | +7.5 | Florida State (28.2-18.3) | 10.0 | 71.7% | Florida State |
| 9:00 PM | CBSSN | Idaho State at Boise State | Boise State (42.9-4.4) | 38.5 | 98.7% | ||
| 10:00 PM | Pac-12 | New Mexico at Arizona State | -28 | Arizona State (37.6-11.4) | 26.3 | 93.5% | New Mexico |
ASU's been one of the nation's biggest early underachievers, but one would assume the Sun Devils will still beat UNM handily.
Saturday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 12:00 PM | ABC | Air Force at Michigan State | -26 | Michigan State (44.5-19.0) | 25.5 | 93.0% | Air Force |
| 12:00 PM | CSNC | Buffalo at Florida Atlantic | 0 | Florida Atlantic (35.1-27.5) | 7.6 | 66.9% | Florida Atlantic |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN | Connecticut at Missouri | -21 | Missouri (38.2-9.5) | 28.7 | 95.1% | Missouri |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Savannah State at Akron | Akron (36.9-10.1) | 26.8 | 93.9% | ||
| 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Illinois at North Carolina | -9.5 | North Carolina (24.9-16.9) | 8.0 | 67.9% | Illinois |
| 12:00 PM | BTN | Kent State at Minnesota | -24 | Minnesota (21.6-7.8) | 13.8 | 78.8% | Kent State |
| 12:00 PM | SECN | Nevada at Texas A&M | -34 | Texas A&M (42.1-19.9) | 22.3 | 90.1% | Nevada |
| 12:00 PM | ESPNU | South Florida at Maryland | -7 | Maryland (34.0-21.7) | 12.3 | 76.1% | Maryland |
| 12:00 PM | FS1 | Tulsa at Oklahoma | -31 | Oklahoma (42.8-16.7) | 26.2 | 93.5% | Tulsa |
| 12:00 PM | BTN | UNLV at Michigan | -34 | Michigan (40.0-9.3) | 30.7 | 96.2% | UNLV |
| 12:00 PM | CBSSN | Wake Forest at Army | +6 | Wake Forest (36.0-29.8) | 6.2 | 64.0% | Wake Forest |
| 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Central Michigan at Syracuse | -7 | Syracuse (26.3-19.1) | 7.2 | 66.2% | Syracuse |
| 12:30 PM | ACC | Northwestern at Duke | -3.5 | Duke (22.4-14.6) | 7.8 | 67.4% | Duke |
| 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | SE Louisiana at Ohio | Ohio (38.5-24.6) | 13.9 | 78.9% | ||
| 2:00 PM | Pac-12 | Georgia State at Oregon | -45 | Oregon (53.9-14.7) | 39.2 | 98.8% | Georgia State |
| 2:30 PM | FCSC | Rice at North Texas | +8 | Rice (28.9-22.4) | 6.6 | 64.8% | North Texas |
| 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Ball State at Eastern Michigan | +6 | Ball State (46.4-30.0) | 16.4 | 82.9% | Ball State |
| 3:00 PM | FSN affiliates | Louisiana Tech at Kansas State | -9 | Kansas State (35.6-24.1) | 11.6 | 74.8% | Kansas State |
| 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Memphis at Bowling Green | +3 | Memphis (36.8-31.2) | 5.6 | 62.7% | Memphis |
| 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Temple at Massachusetts | +10.5 | Temple (38.6-23.9) | 14.7 | 80.3% | Temple |
| 3:30 PM | BTN | Troy at Wisconsin | -35 | Wisconsin (43.2-10.2) | 33.0 | 97.2% | Troy |
| 3:30 PM | CBS | Auburn at LSU | -7 | LSU (32.3-26.4) | 5.9 | 63.4% | Auburn |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Cincinnati at Miami-OH | +19 | Cincinnati (34.3-18.2) | 16.1 | 82.4% | Miami-OH |
| 3:30 PM | CBSSN | East Carolina at Navy | -4 | Navy (35.0-26.6) | 8.4 | 68.7% | Navy |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | William & Mary at Virginia | Virginia (44.0-17.8) | 26.2 | 93.5% | ||
| 3:30 PM | ASN | Norfolk State at Marshall | Marshall (45.3-7.9) | 37.4 | 98.5% | ||
| 3:30 PM | NBC | Georgia Tech at Notre Dame | +3 | Notre Dame (31.9-29.9) | 2.0 | 54.6% | Notre Dame |
| 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Nebraska at Miami-FL | -3.5 | Miami-FL (31.4-27.7) | 3.7 | 58.5% | Miami-FL |
| 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Northern Illinois at Ohio State | -35 | Ohio State (46.7-14.9) | 31.8 | 96.7% | Northern Illinois |
| 3:30 PM | FS1 | UTSA at Oklahoma State | -24.5 | Oklahoma State (45.4-15.1) | 30.3 | 96.0% | Oklahoma State |
| 3:30 PM | ESPNU | Virginia Tech at Purdue | +6 | Virginia Tech (37.0-24.3) | 12.7 | 76.8% | Virginia Tech |
| 4:00 PM | SECN | Northwestern State at Mississippi State | Mississippi State (46.0-9.3) | 36.8 | 98.3% | ||
| 4:00 PM | SECN+ | Austin Peay at Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt (41.2-3.5) | 37.7 | 98.5% | ||
| 4:00 PM | ESPNN | Western Kentucky at Indiana | -1.5 | Western Kentucky (36.0-33.0) | 3.0 | 56.9% | Western Kentucky |
| 5:00 PM | ESPN3 | Wofford at Idaho | Idaho (36.4-30.1) | 6.2 | 64.1% | ||
| 5:00 PM | Pac-12 | Utah State at Washington | -5.5 | Washington (21.4-18.0) | 3.4 | 57.7% | Utah State |
| 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | The Citadel at Georgia Southern | Georgia Southern (39.8-14.8) | 25.0 | 92.6% | ||
| 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | Furman at Central Florida | Central Florida (37.6-10.1) | 27.5 | 94.4% | ||
| 6:00 PM | $CSLive | NCCU at Florida International | Florida International (34.9-17.4) | 17.5 | 84.4% | ||
| 6:00 PM | ESPN | South Carolina at Georgia | -17 | Georgia (36.2-21.8) | 14.4 | 79.7% | South Carolina |
| 7:00 PM | $CSLive | Charlotte at Middle Tennessee | -19.5 | Middle Tennessee (29.7-20.0) | 9.7 | 71.2% | Charlotte |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Missouri State at Arkansas State | Arkansas State (34.5-13.9) | 20.6 | 88.3% | ||
| 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Western Carolina at Tennessee | Tennessee (46.2-8.8) | 37.4 | 98.5% | ||
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Murray State at Western Michigan | Western Michigan (44.1-16.2) | 28.0 | 94.7% | ||
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Southern Miss at Texas State | -3 | Texas State (36.1-30.7) | 5.4 | 62.3% | Texas State |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | Texas Tech at Arkansas | -11.5 | Arkansas (45.8-29.8) | 16.0 | 82.3% | Arkansas |
| 7:00 PM | CBSSN | Colorado vs. Colorado State | +3 | Colorado State (29.0-22.1) | 6.9 | 65.5% | Colorado State |
| 7:00 PM | ASN | NC State at Old Dominion | +19 | NC State (34.6-21.4) | 13.2 | 77.6% | Old Dominion |
| 7:30 PM | Fox | California at Texas | +6.5 | Texas (31.7-28.5) | 3.2 | 57.4% | Texas |
| 7:30 PM | SECN | Florida at Kentucky | +3 | Florida (34.2-29.4) | 4.7 | 60.8% | Florida |
| 8:00 PM | ESPN3 | Maine at Tulane | Tulane (35.3-17.2) | 18.1 | 85.2% | ||
| 8:00 PM | ESPNN | Iowa State at Toledo | -7.5 | Toledo (30.8-21.5) | 9.3 | 70.4% | Toledo |
| 8:00 PM | BTN | Pittsburgh at Iowa | -5.5 | Pittsburgh (27.6-27.5) | 0.2 | 50.3% | Pittsburgh |
| 8:00 PM | BTN | Rutgers at Penn State | -10 | Penn State (36.1-20.2) | 15.8 | 82.0% | Penn State |
| 8:00 PM | Pac-12 | San Jose State at Oregon State | -7.5 | Oregon State (29.3-23.0) | 6.3 | 64.2% | San Jose State |
| 8:00 PM | FSN | SMU at TCU | -37.5 | TCU (47.8-10.7) | 37.0 | 98.4% | SMU |
| 8:00 PM | MWC Video | South Alabama at San Diego State | -17.5 | San Diego State (33.5-18.5) | 14.9 | 80.6% | South Alabama |
| 8:00 PM | ABC | Stanford at USC | -10 | USC (31.2-24.1) | 7.1 | 66.0% | Stanford |
| 8:00 PM | ESPN3 | UTEP at New Mexico State | +2.5 | New Mexico State (39.1-37.9) | 1.2 | 52.7% | New Mexico State |
| 8:30 PM | Pac-12 | Wyoming at Washington State | -24 | Washington State (43.5-25.0) | 18.4 | 85.7% | Wyoming |
| 9:15 PM | ESPN | Ole Miss at Alabama | -7 | Alabama (33.5-25.8) | 7.6 | 67.1% | Alabama |
| 10:30 PM | FS1 | BYU at UCLA | -17 | UCLA (36.9-20.0) | 16.8 | 83.5% | BYU |
| 10:30 PM | CBSSN | Utah at Fresno State | +15 | Utah (34.4-20.0) | 14.4 | 79.8% | Fresno State |
| 11:00 PM | Pac-12 | Northern Arizona at Arizona | Arizona (47.4-10.7) | 36.6 | 98.3% | ||
| 11:59 PM | MWC Video | UC Davis at Hawaii | Hawaii (31.0-13.3) | 17.7 | 84.7% |
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