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Auburn 27, Jacksonville State 20: Tigers survive with better finishing and bailouts

Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports

Auburn 27, Jacksonville State 20

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Basics Auburn JSU Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 70 89
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 32.1 27.2 29.7
Possessions 11 12
Scoring Opportunities*
6 7
Points Per Opportunity 3.33 2.86 4.80
Leverage Rate** 72.9% 73.0% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.607 0.570 0.584
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Auburn JSU
Total 36.2 39.5
Rushing 14.9 16.5
Passing 21.3 22.9
Success Rate (what's this?) Auburn JSU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 50.0% 48.3% 41.3%
Rushing (close) 44.7% 43.2% 42.5%
Passing (close) 56.3% 53.3% 40.1%
Standard Downs 49.0% 60.0% 46.8%
Passing Downs 52.6% 16.7% 29.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Auburn JSU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.03 0.92 1.27
Rushing (close) 0.88 0.87 1.06
Passing (close) 1.18 0.95 1.49
Standard Downs 0.86 0.89 1.10
Passing Downs 1.48 1.16 1.83
Line Stats Auburn JSU Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.19 3.03 2.80
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 5.1%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 13.3% 6.6%
Turnovers Auburn JSU
Turnovers 3 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 13.5 3.1
Turnover Margin JSU +2
Exp. TO Margin Auburn +1.9
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) JSU +3.9
TO Points Margin JSU +10.5 points
Situational Auburn JSU
Q1 S&P 0.586 0.620
Q2 S&P 0.453 0.591
Q3 S&P 0.705 0.646
Q4 S&P 0.714 0.593
1st Down S&P 0.641 0.614
2nd Down S&P 0.562 0.569
3rd Down S&P 0.644 0.566
Projected Scoring Margin: JSU by 13.7
Actual Scoring Margin: Auburn by 7

Auburn was both lucky (points and turnovers suggested a pretty healthy JSU win) and unlucky (the turnover gods smiled significantly on the Gamecocks). Regardless, Auburn ended up winning because the Tigers were better at finishing chances and bailing themselves out on passing downs. (And, perhaps, because JSU completely forfeited the final 40 seconds of regulation. Fortune favors the bold. Okay, that's in no way always true, but bold is more fun either way.)