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LSU 21, Mississippi State 19: The team that could run, won

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LSU 21, Mississippi State 19

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics LSU Mississippi State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 61 80
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 28.2 25.0 29.7
Possessions 13 13
Scoring Opportunities*
3 6
Points Per Opportunity 7.00 3.33 4.80
Leverage Rate** 68.9% 67.5% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.571 0.540 0.584
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) LSU Mississippi State
Total 30.4 34.0
Rushing 24.0 5.8
Passing 6.4 28.2
Success Rate (what's this?) LSU Mississippi State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 41.0% 42.5% 41.3%
Rushing (close) 47.8% 34.8% 42.5%
Passing (close) 20.0% 45.6% 40.1%
Standard Downs 52.4% 55.6% 46.8%
Passing Downs 15.8% 15.4% 29.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) LSU Mississippi State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.22 1.00 1.27
Rushing (close) 1.09 0.73 1.06
Passing (close) 2.12 1.08 1.49
Standard Downs 1.07 0.95 1.10
Passing Downs 2.28 1.37 1.83
Line Stats LSU Mississippi State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.48 2.59 2.80
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 20.0% 2.7% 5.1%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 10.0% 6.6%
Turnovers LSU Mississippi State
Turnovers 0 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 0.0
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin LSU +1.54
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Mississippi State +1.54
TO Points Margin +0
Situational LSU Mississippi State
Q1 S&P 0.765 0.347
Q2 S&P 0.450 0.462
Q3 S&P 0.616 0.572
Q4 S&P 0.497 0.678
1st Down S&P 0.492 0.518
2nd Down S&P 0.646 0.592
3rd Down S&P 0.454 0.584
Projected Scoring Margin: Mississippi State by 3.6
Actual Scoring Margin: LSU by 2

a) Leonard Fournette is kinda good, huh? 28 carries for 159, with just enough Brandon Harris keepers splashed in for effect? LSU had a 48% rushing success rate to MSU's 35%, and that helped the Tigers ease out to a lead.

b) We'll know LSU is truly dangerous when the Tigers show they can pass when they need to. The 16% success rate on passing downs suggests Harris isn't there yet.

c) Back in 2004, Missouri headed into Brad Smith's junior season with a "We're going to make him a passer! He'll still run, probably, but we're going to make him an NFL QB!" approach. It bombed. I'm not going to say MSU is making the same mistake with Dak Prescott, who damn near led the Bulldogs on a huge comeback. But he attempted 55 passes and rushed seven times. Even with the early deficit, that's far too skewed.

d) Boy, that was a tough way to lose.