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LSU 21, Mississippi State 19
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | LSU | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 61 | 80 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 28.2 | 25.0 | 29.7 |
| Possessions | 13 | 13 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
3 | 6 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 7.00 | 3.33 | 4.80 |
| Leverage Rate** | 68.9% | 67.5% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.571 | 0.540 | 0.584 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | LSU | Mississippi State | |
| Total | 30.4 | 34.0 | |
| Rushing | 24.0 | 5.8 | |
| Passing | 6.4 | 28.2 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | LSU | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 41.0% | 42.5% | 41.3% |
| Rushing (close) | 47.8% | 34.8% | 42.5% |
| Passing (close) | 20.0% | 45.6% | 40.1% |
| Standard Downs | 52.4% | 55.6% | 46.8% |
| Passing Downs | 15.8% | 15.4% | 29.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | LSU | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.22 | 1.00 | 1.27 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.09 | 0.73 | 1.06 |
| Passing (close) | 2.12 | 1.08 | 1.49 |
| Standard Downs | 1.07 | 0.95 | 1.10 |
| Passing Downs | 2.28 | 1.37 | 1.83 |
| Line Stats | LSU | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.48 | 2.59 | 2.80 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 20.0% | 2.7% | 5.1% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 10.0% | 6.6% |
| Turnovers | LSU | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Turnover Margin | +0 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | LSU +1.54 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Mississippi State +1.54 | |
| TO Points Margin | +0 | |
| Situational | LSU | Mississippi State |
| Q1 S&P | 0.765 | 0.347 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.450 | 0.462 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.616 | 0.572 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.497 | 0.678 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.492 | 0.518 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.646 | 0.592 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.454 | 0.584 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Mississippi State by 3.6 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: LSU by 2 | ||
a) Leonard Fournette is kinda good, huh? 28 carries for 159, with just enough Brandon Harris keepers splashed in for effect? LSU had a 48% rushing success rate to MSU's 35%, and that helped the Tigers ease out to a lead.
b) We'll know LSU is truly dangerous when the Tigers show they can pass when they need to. The 16% success rate on passing downs suggests Harris isn't there yet.
c) Back in 2004, Missouri headed into Brad Smith's junior season with a "We're going to make him a passer! He'll still run, probably, but we're going to make him an NFL QB!" approach. It bombed. I'm not going to say MSU is making the same mistake with Dak Prescott, who damn near led the Bulldogs on a huge comeback. But he attempted 55 passes and rushed seven times. Even with the early deficit, that's far too skewed.
d) Boy, that was a tough way to lose.
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