clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Michigan State 31, Oregon 28: Can these two teams play every year?

New, 3 comments
Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

Michigan State 31, Oregon 28

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Michigan State Oregon Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 69 82
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 32.9 27.2 29.7
Possessions 14 12
Scoring Opportunities*
6 6
Points Per Opportunity 5.17 3.50 4.80
Leverage Rate** 63.8% 73.2% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.588 0.583 0.584
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Michigan State Oregon
Total 37.1 40.3
Rushing 19.0 12.6
Passing 18.2 27.6
Success Rate (what's this?) Michigan State Oregon Nat'l Avg
All (close) 39.1% 46.3% 41.3%
Rushing (close) 37.8% 48.7% 42.5%
Passing (close) 40.6% 44.2% 40.1%
Standard Downs 43.2% 46.7% 46.8%
Passing Downs 32.0% 45.5% 29.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Michigan State Oregon Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.37 1.06 1.27
Rushing (close) 1.35 0.66 1.06
Passing (close) 1.40 1.46 1.49
Standard Downs 1.23 0.92 1.10
Passing Downs 1.71 1.46 1.83
Line Stats Michigan State Oregon Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.25 2.65 2.80
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 4.4% 5.1%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 15.0% 6.6%
Turnovers Michigan State Oregon
Turnovers 1 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 4.8 5.4
Turnover Margin Michigan State +1
Exp. TO Margin Michigan State +1.02
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Oregon +0.02
TO Points Margin Michigan State +0.7 points
Situational Michigan State Oregon
Q1 S&P 0.725 0.507
Q2 S&P 0.492 0.628
Q3 S&P 0.577 0.454
Q4 S&P 0.605 0.629
1st Down S&P 0.530 0.609
2nd Down S&P 0.579 0.639
3rd Down S&P 0.621 0.584
Projected Scoring Margin: Oregon by 2.5
Actual Scoring Margin: Michigan State by 3

Oregon turned the ball over on downs four times in State territory. I castigated Tennessee's Butch Jones for not going for it on fourth-and-goal from the 1 against Oklahoma, but you could technically point this out as a reason why you take the points. (It's not a very effective argument, mind you -- anecdotes over large-sample stats -- but it's an argument.)

This game was just a delight. Both teams making plays on both sides of the ball, both teams going for the win, etc. More of these home-and-homes, please.