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Michigan State 31, Oregon 28
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Michigan State | Oregon | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 69 | 82 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 32.9 | 27.2 | 29.7 |
| Possessions | 14 | 12 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
6 | 6 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.17 | 3.50 | 4.80 |
| Leverage Rate** | 63.8% | 73.2% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.588 | 0.583 | 0.584 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Michigan State | Oregon | |
| Total | 37.1 | 40.3 | |
| Rushing | 19.0 | 12.6 | |
| Passing | 18.2 | 27.6 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Michigan State | Oregon | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 39.1% | 46.3% | 41.3% |
| Rushing (close) | 37.8% | 48.7% | 42.5% |
| Passing (close) | 40.6% | 44.2% | 40.1% |
| Standard Downs | 43.2% | 46.7% | 46.8% |
| Passing Downs | 32.0% | 45.5% | 29.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Michigan State | Oregon | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.37 | 1.06 | 1.27 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.35 | 0.66 | 1.06 |
| Passing (close) | 1.40 | 1.46 | 1.49 |
| Standard Downs | 1.23 | 0.92 | 1.10 |
| Passing Downs | 1.71 | 1.46 | 1.83 |
| Line Stats | Michigan State | Oregon | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.25 | 2.65 | 2.80 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 15.0% | 6.6% |
| Turnovers | Michigan State | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 4.8 | 5.4 |
| Turnover Margin | Michigan State +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Michigan State +1.02 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Oregon +0.02 | |
| TO Points Margin | Michigan State +0.7 points | |
| Situational | Michigan State | Oregon |
| Q1 S&P | 0.725 | 0.507 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.492 | 0.628 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.577 | 0.454 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.605 | 0.629 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.530 | 0.609 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.579 | 0.639 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.621 | 0.584 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Oregon by 2.5 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Michigan State by 3 | ||
Oregon turned the ball over on downs four times in State territory. I castigated Tennessee's Butch Jones for not going for it on fourth-and-goal from the 1 against Oklahoma, but you could technically point this out as a reason why you take the points. (It's not a very effective argument, mind you -- anecdotes over large-sample stats -- but it's an argument.)
This game was just a delight. Both teams making plays on both sides of the ball, both teams going for the win, etc. More of these home-and-homes, please.
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