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Toledo 16, Arkansas 12
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Arkansas | Toledo | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 84 | 62 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 28.3 | 27.6 | 29.7 |
| Possessions | 10 | 9 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
6 | 5 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 1.67 | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| Leverage Rate** | 64.3% | 66.1% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.611 | 0.560 | 0.584 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Arkansas | Toledo | |
| Total | 46.7 | 30.3 | |
| Rushing | 9.7 | 8.1 | |
| Passing | 37.0 | 22.2 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Arkansas | Toledo | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 46.4% | 37.1% | 41.3% |
| Rushing (close) | 41.9% | 33.3% | 42.5% |
| Passing (close) | 49.1% | 39.5% | 40.1% |
| Standard Downs | 48.2% | 36.6% | 46.8% |
| Passing Downs | 43.3% | 38.1% | 29.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Arkansas | Toledo | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.20 | 1.32 | 1.27 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.74 | 1.01 | 1.06 |
| Passing (close) | 1.42 | 1.48 | 1.49 |
| Standard Downs | 1.07 | 1.09 | 1.10 |
| Passing Downs | 1.46 | 1.74 | 1.83 |
| Line Stats | Arkansas | Toledo | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.20 | 1.90 | 2.80 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.1% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.6% |
| Turnovers | Arkansas | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 6.2 | 0.0 |
| Turnover Margin | Toledo +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Toledo +0.88 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Toledo +0.12 | |
| TO Points Margin | Toledo +6.2 points | |
| Situational | Arkansas | Toledo |
| Q1 S&P | 0.613 | 0.603 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.740 | 0.547 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.543 | 0.630 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.567 | 0.389 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.677 | 0.611 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.613 | 0.462 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.670 | 0.500 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Arkansas by 10.2 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Toledo by 4 | ||
A game that produces 11 scoring opportunities should expect to produce about 50 points or so. Arkansas-Toledo produced 28. If either team had been capable of turning opportunities into actual production, it would have run away with the game. Instead, Toledo won because the Rockets were less bad at finishing.
That's probably not much of a consolation for Arkansas, which both ran the ball poorly and probably didn't run the ball enough. But this all goes down as a frustrating win with one more conversion. (And I assume quarterback Brandon Allen has had nightmares about missing Hunter Henry open in the end zone in the final seconds.)
By the way, that's four straight losses for Arkansas in Little Rock. How about you sit it out for a couple of years, War Memorial Stadium?