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Toledo 16, Arkansas 12: Rockets were bad at finishing drives, Hogs were worse

Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Toledo 16, Arkansas 12

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Arkansas Toledo Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 84 62
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 28.3 27.6 29.7
Possessions 10 9
Scoring Opportunities*
6 5
Points Per Opportunity 1.67 3.40 4.80
Leverage Rate** 64.3% 66.1% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.611 0.560 0.584
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Arkansas Toledo
Total 46.7 30.3
Rushing 9.7 8.1
Passing 37.0 22.2
Success Rate (what's this?) Arkansas Toledo Nat'l Avg
All (close) 46.4% 37.1% 41.3%
Rushing (close) 41.9% 33.3% 42.5%
Passing (close) 49.1% 39.5% 40.1%
Standard Downs 48.2% 36.6% 46.8%
Passing Downs 43.3% 38.1% 29.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Arkansas Toledo Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.20 1.32 1.27
Rushing (close) 0.74 1.01 1.06
Passing (close) 1.42 1.48 1.49
Standard Downs 1.07 1.09 1.10
Passing Downs 1.46 1.74 1.83
Line Stats Arkansas Toledo Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.20 1.90 2.80
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 5.1%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 6.6%
Turnovers Arkansas Toledo
Turnovers 1 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 6.2 0.0
Turnover Margin Toledo +1
Exp. TO Margin Toledo +0.88
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Toledo +0.12
TO Points Margin Toledo +6.2 points
Situational Arkansas Toledo
Q1 S&P 0.613 0.603
Q2 S&P 0.740 0.547
Q3 S&P 0.543 0.630
Q4 S&P 0.567 0.389
1st Down S&P 0.677 0.611
2nd Down S&P 0.613 0.462
3rd Down S&P 0.670 0.500
Projected Scoring Margin: Arkansas by 10.2
Actual Scoring Margin: Toledo by 4

A game that produces 11 scoring opportunities should expect to produce about 50 points or so. Arkansas-Toledo produced 28. If either team had been capable of turning opportunities into actual production, it would have run away with the game. Instead, Toledo won because the Rockets were less bad at finishing.

That's probably not much of a consolation for Arkansas, which both ran the ball poorly and probably didn't run the ball enough. But this all goes down as a frustrating win with one more conversion. (And I assume quarterback Brandon Allen has had nightmares about missing Hunter Henry open in the end zone in the final seconds.)

By the way, that's four straight losses for Arkansas in Little Rock. How about you sit it out for a couple of years, War Memorial Stadium?