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In under two hours, the 2015 FBS season will officially kick off in Charlotte and Orlando.

You already knew that, but I wanted to just see it typed out. We made it!

Below you'll find all the Week 1 F/+ picks you can stomach. Some notes about this year's picks:

  • When I made changes to S&P+ last winter, one of the main goals was to create much more sound win probability numbers. They're strapped to a bell curve now instead of simply pasted together with previous data in Excel. That should make things a lot more palatable.

  • The more I thought about it, the more I realized that win probabilities were the most important piece of data to me -- your record against the spread can be pretty sporadic (in simulating 2005-14, these picks ended up falling anywhere between 49% and 55%), and your straight-up record can depend in part on how many competitive games there are in a given year: if every game is Eastern Michigan-Ohio State, you should nail well over 90+% of your straight-up picks; if every game is Alabama-Ohio State, you'll be lucky to nail 50% of your picks. If the win probabilities are properly lined up with reality, then I feel pretty comfortable with where the ratings are at as a whole.

  • (As I may have written before, the primary purpose of these picks is to simply demonstrate the general quality of my ratings as a whole. I don't use them to gamble, and if you do ... well, good luck with that. My goal is to show that these are perfectly acceptable ratings, then use them to dive into rushing, passing, standard downs, passing downs, etc., in my writing.)

  • That said, the F/+ picks should still usually hit the same 52-53% mark as usual. Anything more than that is a bonus, but anything less is a little bit disappointing.

Thanks to payout games, we've got a loaded damn slate of games this week: 87 in all. But only 39 pit two FBS teams against each other. That leaves a whopping 48 FBS vs. FCS affairs. As I wrote yesterday, scheduling today is as good as it's ever been, but there's no question that most teams use one of their 12 games as an exhibition of sorts. (Of course, games like South Dakota State-Kansas, Fordham-Army, and Villanova-UConn are more tossup than exhibition.)

Alright, enough jibber jabber. Here we go.

Thursday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
6:00 PM ESPN North Carolina vs. South Carolina -3 South Carolina (38.6-33.6) 5.0 61.4% South Carolina
6:00 PM CBSSN Florida International at Central Florida -13 Central Florida (23.8-12.9) 10.9 73.6% Florida International
7:00 PM ESPNU Oklahoma State at Central Michigan +24 Oklahoma State (32.1-21.6) 10.5 72.8% Central Michigan
7:00 PM ESPN3 Stony Brook at Toledo Toledo (40.5-23.4) 17.1 83.9%
7:00 PM ESPN3 VMI at Ball State Ball State (38.9-20.7) 18.2 85.4%
7:00 PM ESPN3 Elon at Wake Forest Wake Forest (26.4-12.2) 14.2 79.5%
7:30 PM ESPN3 Alcorn State at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech (47.0-19.4) 27.6 94.5%
7:30 PM ESPN3 Villanova at Connecticut Connecticut (25.0-20.9) 4.1 59.4%
8:00 PM SECN Western Kentucky at Vanderbilt +3 Western Kentucky (34.2-31.6) 2.6 55.9% Vanderbilt
8:30 PM FS1 Michigan at Utah -6 Utah (22.9-20.9) 2.0 54.6% Michigan
9:00 PM ESPN3 Ohio at Idaho +7 Ohio (32.2-28.0) 4.2 59.6% Idaho
9:00 PM Southern Utah at Utah State Utah State (36.2-16.2) 20.0 87.6%
9:00 PM ESPN TCU at Minnesota +17 TCU (31.8-22.8) 9.0 69.8% Minnesota
9:30 PM CBSSN Duke at Tulane +7 Duke (26.9-19.5) 7.5 66.7% Duke
10:00 PM MWC Video Abilene Christian at Fresno State Fresno State (33.8-23.9) 9.9 71.7%
10:00 PM MWC Video UC Davis at Nevada Nevada (38.2-20.8) 17.4 84.3%
10:00 PM New Hampshire at San Jose State San Jose State (31.6-25.0) 6.6 64.8%
10:00 PM Pac-12 UTSA at Arizona -32 Arizona (34.2-9.3) 24.9 92.5% UTSA
1:00 AM CBSSN Colorado at Hawaii +7.5 Colorado (32.0-28.1) 3.9 58.9% Hawaii

Friday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
3:30 PM ESPNU Charlotte at Georgia State -8 Georgia State (38.8-37.2) 1.6 53.6% Charlotte
7:00 PM ESPN Baylor at SMU +36 Baylor (42.3-16.5) 25.9 93.3% SMU
7:00 PM CBSSN Fordham at Army Army (31.2-31.0) 0.2 50.5%
7:00 PM ESPNU Michigan State at Western Michigan +17 Michigan State (40.2-26.1) 14.0 79.1% Western Michigan
7:00 PM ESPN3 Rhode Island at Syracuse Syracuse (33.8-18.1) 15.7 81.8%
8:00 PM Pac-12 Weber State at Oregon State Oregon State (38.3-24.0) 14.3 79.6%
9:00 PM BTN Kent State at Illinois -14.5 Illinois (28.4-22.8) 5.7 62.8% Kent State
10:15 PM ESPN Washington at Boise State -12 Boise State (35.1-21.8) 13.4 78.0% Boise State

Saturday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
12:00 PM CBSSN Colgate at Navy Navy (40.3-22.1) 18.2 85.4%
12:00 PM BTN Illinois State at Iowa Iowa (34.5-19.9) 14.6 80.0%
12:00 PM ESPNN Norfolk State at Rutgers Rutgers (38.8-22.1) 16.7 83.3%
12:00 PM SECN UL-Monroe at Georgia -36 Georgia (39.3-12.5) 26.8 93.9% UL-Monroe
12:00 PM ESPNU Richmond at Maryland Maryland (33.9-20.0) 13.9 79.0%
12:00 PM FSN affiliates South Dakota State at Kansas Kansas (27.2-24.9) 2.3 55.2%
12:00 PM ESPN Stanford at Northwestern +12 Stanford (26.5-16.7) 9.9 71.6% Northwestern
12:00 PM SECN UT Martin at Ole Miss Ole Miss (40.6-7.9) 32.7 97.0%
12:30 PM ESPN3 Wofford at Clemson Clemson (35.6-8.8) 26.8 93.9%
1:00 PM ESPN3 Maine at Boston College Boston College (34.7-16.3) 18.4 85.6%
1:00 PM ESPN3 Youngstown State at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh (41.5-22.0) 19.5 87.1%
2:00 PM Pac-12 Portland State at Washington State Washington State (41.0-23.2) 17.8 84.8%
3:30 PM ESPN3 Albany at Buffalo Buffalo (34.5-29.1) 5.4 62.2%
3:30 PM ABC BYU at Nebraska -7 Nebraska (32.3-28.2) 4.1 59.4% BYU
3:30 PM CBSSN Florida Atlantic at Tulsa -7 Tulsa (35.8-32.3) 3.5 58.0% Florida Atlantic
3:30 PM ESPN3 Howard at Appalachian State Appalachian State (36.9-20.1) 16.8 83.5%
3:30 PM CBSSN Louisville vs. Auburn -11 Auburn (28.6-22.9) 5.8 63.0% Louisville
3:30 PM RSRM Morgan State at Air Force Air Force (36.6-23.1) 13.5 78.2%
3:30 PM ESPN3 Old Dominion at Eastern Michigan +4.5 Old Dominion (38.5-30.0) 8.5 68.8% Old Dominion
3:30 PM ESPN Penn State at Temple +7 Penn State (13.1-9.9) 3.2 57.4% Temple
3:30 PM FSN affiliates Sam Houston at Texas Tech Texas Tech (43.3-27.1) 16.2 82.5%
3:30 PM ESPNU UTEP at Arkansas -33 Arkansas (39.3-15.5) 23.8 91.5% UTEP
3:30 PM Fox Virginia at UCLA -19.5 UCLA (34.4-19.8) 14.7 80.2% Virginia
3:30 PM CSCA Wagner at Rice Rice (35.4-25.4) 10.0 71.7%
3:30 PM ESPN3 Presbyterian at Miami-OH Miami-OH (29.8-25.1) 4.7 60.7%
4:00 PM SECN Bowling Green at Tennessee -21.5 Tennessee (37.9-21.2) 16.7 83.3% Bowling Green
4:00 PM North Dakota at Wyoming Wyoming (34.5-25.4) 9.1 70.0%
4:00 PM MWC Video Savannah State at Colorado State Colorado State (45.3-18.8) 26.5 93.7%
4:00 PM SECN SEMO at Missouri Missouri (40.0-11.7) 28.3 94.9%
4:00 PM ESPNN Southern Illinois at Indiana Indiana (34.6-24.9) 9.7 71.3%
5:00 PM Pac-12 Grambling State at California California (43.3-23.8) 19.4 86.9%
6:00 PM ESPN3 Bethune-Cookman at Miami-FL Miami-FL (39.2-16.0) 23.2 91.0%
6:00 PM ESPN3 Towson at East Carolina East Carolina (39.7-20.3) 19.4 86.9%
6:00 PM ESPN3 Troy at NC State -26 NC State (41.3-22.6) 18.8 86.1% Troy
6:00 PM ESPN3 Gardner-Webb at South Alabama South Alabama (30.4-19.7) 10.7 73.1%
7:00 PM FSN PPV Akron at Oklahoma -31.5 Oklahoma (40.1-14.7) 25.4 92.9% Akron
7:00 PM ESPN3 Alabama A&M at Cincinnati Cincinnati (46.8-16.9) 30.0 95.8%
7:00 PM ESPN Arizona State vs. Texas A&M -3.5 Arizona State (32.8-31.9) 0.8 51.9% Arizona State
7:00 PM ESPN3 Florida A&M at South Florida South Florida (30.4-19.4) 11.0 73.7%
7:00 PM $CSLive Jackson State at Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee (42.8-19.4) 23.4 91.2%
7:00 PM Miss. Valley St. at New Mexico New Mexico (43.1-25.0) 18.1 85.2%
7:00 PM ASN Southern U. at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech (37.3-18.0) 19.3 86.8%
7:00 PM ESPN3 Missouri State at Memphis Memphis (34.0-19.9) 14.0 79.2%
7:00 PM ESPNU UL-Lafayette at Kentucky -17 Kentucky (32.9-26.1) 6.8 65.2% UL-Lafayette
7:10 PM $ Video South Dakota at Kansas State Kansas State (43.0-17.9) 25.0 92.6%
7:30 PM FSN affiliates Georgia Southern at West Virginia -19.5 West Virginia (34.6-26.7) 7.9 67.6% Georgia Southern
7:30 PM SECN McNeese State at LSU LSU (40.9-11.1) 29.8 95.7%
7:30 PM CBSSN UNLV at Northern Illinois -23 Northern Illinois (37.8-23.2) 14.6 80.1% UNLV
7:30 PM SECN New Mexico State at Florida -37 Florida (33.1-12.3) 20.8 88.5% New Mexico State
7:30 PM NBC Texas at Notre Dame -10 Notre Dame (29.3-18.7) 10.6 73.0% Notre Dame
8:00 PM Pac-12 Eastern Washington at Oregon Oregon (49.7-17.4) 32.2 96.9%
8:00 PM cable IA Northern Iowa at Iowa State Iowa State (36.1-27.4) 8.7 69.3%
8:00 PM MWC Video San Diego at San Diego State San Diego State (36.7-17.5) 19.2 86.6%
8:00 PM ESPNN Texas State at Florida State -29 Florida State (43.9-19.7) 24.1 91.9% Texas State
8:00 PM ESPN3 Tennessee Tech at Houston Houston (33.5-18.7) 14.8 80.4%
8:00 PM ABC Wisconsin at Alabama -12 Alabama (32.3-20.2) 12.1 75.7% Alabama
10:00 PM FS1 Mississippi State at Southern Miss +21 Mississippi State (40.6-21.1) 19.5 87.0% Southern Miss
11:00 PM Pac-12 Arkansas State at USC -27 USC (41.8-24.9) 17.0 83.6% Arkansas State

Sunday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
3:00 PM FS1 Purdue at Marshall -7.5 Marshall (35.5-25.1) 10.4 72.6% Marshall

Monday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
8:00 PM ESPN Ohio State at Virginia Tech +14 Ohio State (30.7-20.3) 10.4 72.5% Virginia Tech