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Minnesota 23, Colorado State 20: Gophers blow chances but force enough turnovers to win

Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota 23, Colorado State 20

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Basics Colorado State Minnesota Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 73 86
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 30.7 23.8 29.7
Possessions 18 17
Scoring Opportunities*
4 7
Points Per Opportunity 5.00 2.86 4.80
Leverage Rate** 60.3% 69.8% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.501 0.526 0.584
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Colorado State Minnesota
Total 28.5 36.5
Rushing 15.8 15.7
Passing 12.8 20.8
Success Rate (what's this?) Colorado State Minnesota Nat'l Avg
All (close) 30.1% 37.2% 41.3%
Rushing (close) 37.5% 37.5% 42.5%
Passing (close) 21.2% 37.0% 40.1%
Standard Downs 29.6% 36.7% 46.8%
Passing Downs 31.0% 38.5% 29.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Colorado State Minnesota Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.30 1.14 1.27
Rushing (close) 1.05 1.04 1.06
Passing (close) 1.82 1.22 1.49
Standard Downs 1.33 1.13 1.10
Passing Downs 1.25 1.15 1.83
Line Stats Colorado State Minnesota Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.88 3.06 2.80
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 4.2% 5.1%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 7.7% 0.0% 6.6%
Turnovers Colorado State Minnesota
Turnovers 4 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 11.0 9.8
Turnover Margin Minnesota +2
Exp. TO Margin Minnesota +1.39
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Minnesota +0.61
TO Points Margin Minnesota +1.2 points
Situational Colorado State Minnesota
Q1 S&P 0.530 0.346
Q2 S&P 0.293 0.505
Q3 S&P 0.417 0.649
Q4 S&P 0.616 0.588
1st Down S&P 0.494 0.486
2nd Down S&P 0.550 0.546
3rd Down S&P 0.520 0.538
Projected Scoring Margin: Minnesota by 9.1
Actual Scoring Margin: Minnesota by 3

I didn't get to watch any of this one, so I was curious how it unfolded. Looks like Minnesota held the edge play-to-play -- better (but not great) success rates, more scoring opportunities -- but the Gophers blew said opportunities and didn't come up with much in the way of big plays. In the end, CSU converted better, won the field position battle, had a chance to steal the game ... and then didn't because of turnovers. Sloppy.