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Iowa 31, Iowa State 17
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Iowa | Iowa State | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 70 | 62 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 29.2 | 24.2 | 29.7 |
| Possessions | 13 | 12 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
8 | 3 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 3.88 | 5.67 | 4.80 |
| Leverage Rate** | 75.7% | 54.8% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.660 | 0.520 | 0.584 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Iowa | Iowa State | |
| Total | 43.9 | 26.2 | |
| Rushing | 25.2 | 6.9 | |
| Passing | 18.7 | 19.3 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Iowa | Iowa State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 52.9% | 32.3% | 41.3% |
| Rushing (close) | 57.1% | 30.4% | 42.5% |
| Passing (close) | 46.4% | 33.3% | 40.1% |
| Standard Downs | 54.7% | 44.1% | 46.8% |
| Passing Downs | 47.1% | 17.9% | 29.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Iowa | Iowa State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.19 | 1.31 | 1.27 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.05 | 0.98 | 1.06 |
| Passing (close) | 1.44 | 1.49 | 1.49 |
| Standard Downs | 0.97 | 1.08 | 1.10 |
| Passing Downs | 1.95 | 2.02 | 1.83 |
| Line Stats | Iowa | Iowa State | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.15 | 2.77 | 2.80 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 6.3% | 0.0% | 5.1% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 16.7% | 18.2% | 6.6% |
| Turnovers | Iowa | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 5.4 | 4.7 |
| Turnover Margin | +0 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Iowa +0.15 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Iowa State +0.15 | |
| TO Points Margin | Iowa State +0.7 points | |
| Situational | Iowa | Iowa State |
| Q1 S&P | 0.490 | 0.634 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.753 | 0.817 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.592 | 0.500 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.722 | 0.326 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.609 | 0.511 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.670 | 0.569 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.636 | 0.400 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Iowa by 17.0 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Iowa by 14 | ||
For a while, this game was unfolding like a few other ISU victories over Iowa have. Iowa was reating far more scoring chances and controlling the game for the most part, but the game was tied heading into the fourth quarter. And then, early in the fourth, a long Iowa drive ended when Jordan Canzeri fumbled at the ISU 7.
I assumed this was where the Cyclones would steal the game. Instead, ISU punted, Iowa scored with two minutes left, and then the Hawkeyes picked off a pass and scored again two minutes later. The universe evened itself out, and the Hawkeyes won the game by about as much as the stats said they should have.