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Iowa 31, Iowa State 17: This shouldn't have been close (and eventually wasn't)

Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports

Iowa 31, Iowa State 17

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Iowa Iowa State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 70 62
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 29.2 24.2 29.7
Possessions 13 12
Scoring Opportunities*
8 3
Points Per Opportunity 3.88 5.67 4.80
Leverage Rate** 75.7% 54.8% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.660 0.520 0.584
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Iowa Iowa State
Total 43.9 26.2
Rushing 25.2 6.9
Passing 18.7 19.3
Success Rate (what's this?) Iowa Iowa State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 52.9% 32.3% 41.3%
Rushing (close) 57.1% 30.4% 42.5%
Passing (close) 46.4% 33.3% 40.1%
Standard Downs 54.7% 44.1% 46.8%
Passing Downs 47.1% 17.9% 29.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Iowa Iowa State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.19 1.31 1.27
Rushing (close) 1.05 0.98 1.06
Passing (close) 1.44 1.49 1.49
Standard Downs 0.97 1.08 1.10
Passing Downs 1.95 2.02 1.83
Line Stats Iowa Iowa State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.15 2.77 2.80
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 6.3% 0.0% 5.1%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 16.7% 18.2% 6.6%
Turnovers Iowa Iowa State
Turnovers 1 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 5.4 4.7
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Iowa +0.15
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Iowa State +0.15
TO Points Margin Iowa State +0.7 points
Situational Iowa Iowa State
Q1 S&P 0.490 0.634
Q2 S&P 0.753 0.817
Q3 S&P 0.592 0.500
Q4 S&P 0.722 0.326
1st Down S&P 0.609 0.511
2nd Down S&P 0.670 0.569
3rd Down S&P 0.636 0.400
Projected Scoring Margin: Iowa by 17.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Iowa by 14

For a while, this game was unfolding like a few other ISU victories over Iowa have. Iowa was reating far more scoring chances and controlling the game for the most part, but the game was tied heading into the fourth quarter. And then, early in the fourth, a long Iowa drive ended when Jordan Canzeri fumbled at the ISU 7.

I assumed this was where the Cyclones would steal the game. Instead, ISU punted, Iowa scored with two minutes left, and then the Hawkeyes picked off a pass and scored again two minutes later. The universe evened itself out, and the Hawkeyes won the game by about as much as the stats said they should have.