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Texas A&M 38, Arizona State 17
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Arizona State | Texas A&M | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 82 | 80 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 95.1% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 29.8 | 30.6 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 17 | 17 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
5 | 7 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 3.40 | 4.43 | 4.96 |
| Leverage Rate** | 64.0% | 68.4% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.446 | 0.555 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Arizona State | Texas A&M | |
| Total | 26.4 | 37.9 | |
| Rushing | 11.1 | 17.3 | |
| Passing | 15.3 | 20.7 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Arizona State | Texas A&M | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 30.7% | 35.4% | 41.3% |
| Rushing (close) | 43.8% | 36.6% | 42.9% |
| Passing (close) | 20.9% | 34.2% | 39.6% |
| Standard Downs | 37.5% | 33.3% | 46.8% |
| Passing Downs | 18.5% | 40.0% | 29.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Arizona State | Texas A&M | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.00 | 1.36 | 1.28 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.80 | 1.16 | 1.06 |
| Passing (close) | 1.32 | 1.59 | 1.53 |
| Standard Downs | 0.88 | 1.43 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 1.45 | 1.24 | 1.84 |
| Line Stats | Arizona State | Texas A&M | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.67 | 3.03 | 2.82 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 9.1% | 4.0% | 5.8% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 28.6% | 15.4% | 6.5% |
| Turnovers | Arizona State | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 2 | 3 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 9.7 | 13.5 |
| Turnover Margin | Arizona State +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Texas A&M +1.31 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Arizona State +2.31 | |
| TO Points Margin | Arizona State +3.8 points | |
| Situational | Arizona State | Texas A&M |
| Q1 S&P | 0.443 | 0.555 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.362 | 0.413 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.496 | 0.457 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.514 | 0.829 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.418 | 0.558 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.536 | 0.390 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.428 | 0.757 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Texas A&M by 7.7 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Texas A&M by 21 | ||
Fun game. Part of the discrepancy between projected and actual scoring margin is provided by Christian Kirk's punt return score (I'm still trying to figure out a decent way to incorporate special teams). Regardless, this was a very encouraging result for A&M, both in the way the Aggies invaded the backfield (a 29% sack rate on passing downs!) and in the way they still have things to improve on and won by 21.
A&M's staying power will depend on two things:
1. Standard downs efficiency. 33% isn't going to cut it. You can rely on big plays to get you through a lot, but there are a lot of fast defenses in the SEC, and some will limit you to one or two if you aren't staying in positive downs and distances.
2. Opponents' rush efficiency. For as efficient as A&M was against the pass ... well, pass defense wasn't a huge issue last year. Run defense was what killed the Aggies, and though ASU doesn't appear to be a great run team, the Sun Devils still managed an above-average rushing success rate. This isn't a problem yet, but we don't know that it isn't...
(And on the flipside, these might be encouraging signs for ASU down the line...)
Still, great first step, Ags.
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