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Florida State 34, USF 14: Bulls stayed on schedule, but 'Noles had the big plays

Glenn Beil-USA TODAY Sports

Florida State 34, South Florida 14

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Florida State South Florida Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 72 60
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 93.9%
Avg Starting FP 25.0 32.3 29.7
Possessions 14 14
Scoring Opportunities*
6 3
Points Per Opportunity 5.67 4.67 4.80
Leverage Rate** 62.5% 76.9% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.610 0.441 0.584
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Florida State South Florida
Total 41.8 24.6
Rushing 29.5 12.8
Passing 12.3 11.8
Success Rate (what's this?) Florida State South Florida Nat'l Avg
All (close) 36.1% 28.9% 41.3%
Rushing (close) 34.9% 37.5% 42.5%
Passing (close) 37.9% 15.0% 40.1%
Standard Downs 37.8% 35.0% 46.8%
Passing Downs 33.3% 8.3% 29.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Florida State South Florida Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.61 1.05 1.27
Rushing (close) 1.97 1.05 1.06
Passing (close) 1.12 1.05 1.49
Standard Downs 1.13 1.03 1.10
Passing Downs 2.50 1.36 1.83
Line Stats Florida State South Florida Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.75 3.40 2.80
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 9.1% 5.1%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 18.8% 22.2% 6.6%
Turnovers Florida State South Florida
Turnovers 0 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 6.5
Turnover Margin Florida State +1
Exp. TO Margin Florida State +0.15
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Florida State +0.85
TO Points Margin Florida State +6.5 points
Situational Florida State South Florida
Q1 S&P 0.715 0.312
Q2 S&P 0.298 0.529
Q3 S&P 0.735 0.509
Q4 S&P 0.629 0.727
1st Down S&P 0.573 0.520
2nd Down S&P 0.487 0.476
3rd Down S&P 0.805 0.699
Projected Scoring Margin: Florida State by 23.7
Actual Scoring Margin: Florida State by 20

Bud's already written a decent amount about this game, and one of his primary points -- that FSU is going to be volatile and reliant on big plays offensively this year -- is dead on.

This basically played out as the numbers suggested it should. A rather extreme second-quarter FSU drought allowed USF to tie the score at halftime, and honestly, the Bulls' standard downs operation and gameplan was pretty strong. But as we see, only one team made plays on passing downs, and only one team did any sort of major big-play damage. That team wasn't USF.