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Florida State 34, South Florida 14
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Florida State | South Florida | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 72 | 60 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 93.9% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 25.0 | 32.3 | 29.7 |
| Possessions | 14 | 14 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
6 | 3 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.67 | 4.67 | 4.80 |
| Leverage Rate** | 62.5% | 76.9% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.610 | 0.441 | 0.584 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Florida State | South Florida | |
| Total | 41.8 | 24.6 | |
| Rushing | 29.5 | 12.8 | |
| Passing | 12.3 | 11.8 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Florida State | South Florida | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 36.1% | 28.9% | 41.3% |
| Rushing (close) | 34.9% | 37.5% | 42.5% |
| Passing (close) | 37.9% | 15.0% | 40.1% |
| Standard Downs | 37.8% | 35.0% | 46.8% |
| Passing Downs | 33.3% | 8.3% | 29.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Florida State | South Florida | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.61 | 1.05 | 1.27 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.97 | 1.05 | 1.06 |
| Passing (close) | 1.12 | 1.05 | 1.49 |
| Standard Downs | 1.13 | 1.03 | 1.10 |
| Passing Downs | 2.50 | 1.36 | 1.83 |
| Line Stats | Florida State | South Florida | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 9.1% | 5.1% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 18.8% | 22.2% | 6.6% |
| Turnovers | Florida State | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 0.0 | 6.5 |
| Turnover Margin | Florida State +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Florida State +0.15 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Florida State +0.85 | |
| TO Points Margin | Florida State +6.5 points | |
| Situational | Florida State | South Florida |
| Q1 S&P | 0.715 | 0.312 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.298 | 0.529 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.735 | 0.509 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.629 | 0.727 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.573 | 0.520 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.487 | 0.476 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.805 | 0.699 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Florida State by 23.7 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Florida State by 20 | ||
Bud's already written a decent amount about this game, and one of his primary points -- that FSU is going to be volatile and reliant on big plays offensively this year -- is dead on.
This basically played out as the numbers suggested it should. A rather extreme second-quarter FSU drought allowed USF to tie the score at halftime, and honestly, the Bulls' standard downs operation and gameplan was pretty strong. But as we see, only one team made plays on passing downs, and only one team did any sort of major big-play damage. That team wasn't USF.