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Kentucky 26, South Carolina 22: Gamecocks' blown chances make the difference

Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky 26, South Carolina 22

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Basics Kentucky South Carolina Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 67 61
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 22.9 34.5 29.7
Possessions 11 11
Scoring Opportunities*
5 7
Points Per Opportunity 4.80 3.29 4.80
Leverage Rate** 58.2% 82.0% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.598 0.648 0.584
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Kentucky South Carolina
Total 37.2 38.2
Rushing 20.4 19.1
Passing 16.8 19.1
Success Rate (what's this?) Kentucky South Carolina Nat'l Avg
All (close) 40.3% 49.2% 41.3%
Rushing (close) 48.7% 56.3% 42.5%
Passing (close) 30.0% 41.4% 40.1%
Standard Downs 51.3% 56.0% 46.8%
Passing Downs 25.0% 18.2% 29.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Kentucky South Carolina Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.38 1.27 1.27
Rushing (close) 1.13 1.06 1.06
Passing (close) 1.87 1.59 1.49
Standard Downs 1.18 1.21 1.10
Passing Downs 1.93 2.20 1.83
Line Stats Kentucky South Carolina Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.30 4.00 2.80
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 6.7% 5.0% 5.1%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 11.1% 6.6%
Turnovers Kentucky South Carolina
Turnovers 1 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 5.9 3.3
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin South Carolina +0.58
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Kentucky +0.58
TO Points Margin South Carolina +2.7 points
Situational Kentucky South Carolina
Q1 S&P 0.695 0.499
Q2 S&P 0.677 0.680
Q3 S&P 0.000 0.715
Q4 S&P 0.493 0.666
1st Down S&P 0.606 0.706
2nd Down S&P 0.645 0.798
3rd Down S&P 0.553 0.532
Projected Scoring Margin: South Carolina by 3.7
Actual Scoring Margin: Kentucky by 4

Neither team covered itself in glory in this one, did they? More than 80 percent of South Carolina's snaps came on standard downs, but the Gamecocks still had to settle for four field goals (missing one).

Kentucky, meanwhile, ran the ball well but couldn't actually throw for yardage -- one pass to Jeff Badet went for 43 yards, and the other 20 completions gained just 149. (It's really hard to finish with a 72% completion rate and just a 30 percent passing success rate.)

In the end, SC's failures went deeper. It's hard to lose a game when you've got a nearly 12-yards-per-drive field position advantage, create two more scoring opportunities, and don't lose the turnovers battle, but they pulled it off. (And I guess it's only fair after the Gamecocks beat a UNC team that blew a bunch of chances the week before.)