clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

2017 Bowling Green advanced statistical profile

Updated on 1/3/18

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Back to the index page.

Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

2015 | 2016 | 2017

Bowling Green Eagles (MAC East)

2017 Schedule & Results
Record: 2-10 | Second-order wins (diff.): 3.5 (1.5) | S&P+ Rk: 109
Date Opponent Opp. S&P+ Rk Score W-L Win
Expectancy
Adj. Scoring
Margin
Percentile
Performance
Off.
Percentile
Def.
Percentile
2-Sep at Michigan State 19 10-35 L 0% -41.2 7% 3% 17%
9-Sep South Dakota N/A 27-35 L 21% -7.5 32% 60% 22%
16-Sep at Northwestern 46 7-49 L 0% -44.9 5% 11% 4%
23-Sep at Middle Tennessee 68 13-24 L 3% -17.0 18% 21% 35%
30-Sep Akron 112 23-34 L 71% 5.2 59% 66% 44%
7-Oct at Miami-OH 56 37-29 W 55% 1.2 56% 75% 34%
14-Oct Ohio 22 30-48 L 20% -7.7 36% 58% 23%
21-Oct Northern Illinois 54 17-48 L 1% -21.1 16% 41% 12%
31-Oct at Kent State 126 44-16 W 100% 31.0 90% 87% 83%
7-Nov at Buffalo 75 28-38 L 8% -12.9 24% 61% 12%
15-Nov Toledo 30 37-66 L 0% -29.6 11% 65% 2%
21-Nov at Eastern Michigan 70 31-34 L 69% 4.4 61% 72% 39%
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
S&P+ 28.4 67 36.2 123
Points Per Game 25.3 96 38.0 121
Five Factors
Offense Defense
Category Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
EFFICIENCY Success Rate 40.2% 85 49.4% 126 40.3%
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 1.20 47 1.15 53 1.17
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 29.6 73 30.8 101 29.6
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 4.49 64 4.75 98 4.42
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED 0.4 60 Turnover Luck (PPG):
-0.60
ACTUAL -1 71
Rushing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Rushing S&P+ 108.1 52 72.4 130 100.0
Rushing Success Rate 41.6% 76 50.6% 125 42.2%
Rushing IsoPPP 0.97 38 0.89 58 0.92
Adj. Line Yards 101.7 64 77.2 130 100.0
Opportunity Rate 40.1% 47 46.6% 128 38.5%
Power Success Rate 55.3% 124 66.7% 64 67.7%
Stuff Rate 21.5% 98 17.2% 91 19.3%

Individual Rushing Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Fumbles
(Lost)
Josh Cleveland RB 5'8, 175 SR 148 793 4 5.4 5.6 41.9% 4 (3)
Andrew Clair RB 5'10, 187 FR 109 717 4 6.6 7.7 42.2% 2 (2)
Donovan Wilson RB 6'1, 222 SR 48 176 0 3.7 2.2 31.3% 0 (0)
Grant Loy QB 6'5, 219 FR 18 75 2 4.2 3.2 33.3% 1 (1)
Matt Domer RB 5'11, 195 SO 17 102 1 6.0 8.6 35.3% 0 (0)
Jarret Doege QB 6'3, 191 FR 16 34 2 2.1 1.5 25.0% 1 (1)
James Morgan QB 6'5, 226 SO 15 56 0 3.7 1.5 40.0% 3 (1)
Terence Stephens Jr. RB 6'1, 199 SO 13 80 0 6.2 2.2 61.5% 0 (0)
Leonard Skattebo FB 6'1, 262 SR 5 28 0 5.6 6.3 40.0% 0 (0)
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Passing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing S&P+ 97.8 77 85.9 114 100.0
Passing Success Rate 38.9% 87 47.7% 123 40.3%
Passing IsoPPP 1.42 75 1.53 90 1.48
Adj. Sack Rate 92.8 82 56.9 123 100

Individual Passing Stats

Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
James Morgan 6'5, 226 SO 96 212 1260 9 7 45.3% 11 4.9% 5.2
Jarret Doege 6'3, 191 FR 120 188 1381 12 3 63.8% 14 6.9% 6.3
Grant Loy 6'5, 219 FR 9 16 161 0 2 56.3% 4 20.0% 7.1

Individual Receiving Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate Success Rate Target
Rate
Scott Miller WR 5'10, 164 JR 87 63 722 4 11.5 8.3 72.4% 58.6% 22.0%
Datrin Guyton WR 6'5, 202 JR 78 31 585 2 18.9 7.5 39.7% 29.5% 19.7%
Teo Redding WR 6'2, 176 SR 74 45 624 8 13.9 8.4 60.8% 45.9% 18.7%
Janarvis Pough WR 6'2, 181 SO 25 11 106 0 9.6 4.2 44.0% 40.0% 6.3%
Matthew Wilcox Jr. WR 5'10, 178 FR 23 14 106 1 7.6 4.6 60.9% 34.8% 5.8%
Josh Cleveland RB 5'8, 175 SR 19 12 101 0 8.4 5.3 63.2% 42.1% 4.8%
Andrew Clair RB 5'10, 187 FR 16 13 129 2 9.9 8.1 81.2% 43.8% 4.1%
Deric Phouthavong WR 6'5, 205 JR 14 5 80 0 16.0 5.7 35.7% 35.7% 3.5%
Quintin Morris WR 6'3, 219 FR 13 8 116 2 14.5 8.9 61.5% 61.5% 3.3%
Hunter Folkertsma TE 6'6, 252 SR 13 7 105 2 15.0 8.1 53.8% 53.8% 3.3%
Jared Wyatt WR 6'3, 188 FR 7 4 45 0 11.3 6.4 57.1% 42.9% 1.8%
Donovan Wilson RB 6'1, 222 SR 7 5 24 0 4.8 3.4 71.4% 14.3% 1.8%
Pete Norris WR 5'10, 180 SR 3 3 42 0 14.0 14.0 100.0% 66.7% 0.8%
Leonard Skattebo FB 6'1, 262 SR 3 1 11 0 11.0 3.7 33.3% 33.3% 0.8%
Matt Domer RB 5'11, 195 SO 3 2 7 0 3.5 2.3 66.7% 33.3% 0.8%
Antonyo Sotolongo STUD 6'1, 198 SO 3 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.8%
Standard Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Standard Downs S&P+ 96.8 80 83.5 126 100.0
Standard Downs Success Rate 43.9% 104 52.1% 116 46.5%
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.05 66 1.08 81 1.07
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.66 103 3.40 124 2.92
SD Sack Rate 5.1% 68 2.4% 119 5.3%
Passing Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing Downs S&P+ 117.5 24 74.1 125 100.0
Passing Downs Success Rate 33.1% 37 42.1% 128 30.7%
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.57 46 1.38 24 1.53
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.54 33 3.78 113 3.22
PD Sack Rate 7.6% 68 4.9% 114 7.8%
Situational
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk
Q1 S&P+ 106.3 51 77.2 127
Q2 S&P+ 91.8 102 84.1 118
Q3 S&P+ 101.3 66 74.9 126
Q4 S&P+ 110.4 35 89.2 115
1st Down S&P+ 97.8 72 87.0 114
2nd Down S&P+ 100.9 68 70.1 130
3rd Down S&P+ 120.6 20 85.6 115
Offensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 53.5% 98 60.0%
Pass Downs Run Rate 35.1% 60 35.3%
Adj. Pace -2.2 23 +0.0
% of Solo Tackles 77.4% 32 73.8%
Defensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 64.2% 25 59.9%
Pass. Downs Run Rate 43.0% 9 35.0%
Overall Havoc Rate 13.7% 103 16.0%
DL Havoc Rate 4.2% 80 4.9%
LB Havoc Rate 1.9% 126 4.4%
DB Havoc Rate 5.9% 83 6.5%
PD to INC 37.4% 28 33.9%
Individual Defensive Stats
Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles TFL (Sacks) Run Stuffs* Int (PBU) FF Succ. Rate**
Fred Garth DB 6'4, 190 JR 76.5 1 (0) 3 1 (4) 0 80.0%
Brandon Harris STUD 6'4, 212 JR 74.5 3.5 (0) 13 0 (6) 3 56.8%
Nate Locke LB 6'1, 238 SR 66.5 8.5 (2) 20 0 (0) 0 40.6%
Marcus Milton DB 6'0, 188 JR 48.5 1 (0) 1 3 (6) 1 88.3%
David Konowalski DL 6'3, 241 JR 44.5 8.5 (3.5) 15 0 (1) 3 30.5%
Armani Posey LB 6'2, 215 FR 37.5 1.5 (0) 3 0 (1) 2 61.5%
Cameron Jefferies DB 5'10, 186 SO 32.0 1 (0) 1 1 (6) 0 83.3%
Aaron Banks LB 6'3, 240 SR 29.0 1 (0) 6 0 (1) 1 41.5%
Kyle Junior DL 6'3, 275 SO 25.5 6.5 (3.5) 8 0 (1) 1 17.1%
Nilijah Ballew STUD 6'3, 207 SR 25.0 0.5 (0) 0 0 (0) 0 64.7%
Gus Schwieterman DL 6'3, 277 SR 23.0 2.5 (0) 5 0 (0) 0 32.3%
Nico Lautanen DL 6'3, 276 SO 21.0 4.5 (1) 6 0 (0) 1 20.0%
Clint Stephens DB 5'11, 183 JR 21.0 0 (0) 0 3 (8) 1 76.0%
Robert Jackson Jr. DB 5'11, 177 JR 20.0 1 (0) 2 0 (3) 0 65.2%
Brian Sanders DL 6'4, 242 JR 19.0 1.5 (1) 3 0 (0) 0 25.0%
Montre Gregory DB 6'2, 186 JR 17.0 0 (0) 1 1 (8) 0 68.8%
Kholbe Coleman LB 6'0, 215 FR 16.0 1.5 (0) 3 0 (0) 0 45.0%
Shannon Smith DL 6'0, 282 SR 15.5 2.5 (2) 4 0 (1) 0 27.3%
Josh Croslen DL 6'2, 280 FR 13.5 1.5 (1) 1 0 (0) 0 43.8%
Dirion Hutchins DL 6'4, 230 FR 13.0 1.5 (1) 3 0 (0) 0 47.4%
Jack Walz III STUD 5'11, 191 JR 12.0 1 (0) 0 0 (0) 0 25.0%
Torrian Hampton DB 6'4, 192 FR 10.5 0 (0) 0 0 (1) 0 66.7%
Ben Hale DB 6'3, 196 SR 9.0 1 (0) 2 0 (1) 0 70.0%
Trevor Roop WR 5'11, 202 SR 8.0 0 (0) 0 (0) 0
Tavaraus Wade DB 6'1, 196 JR 7.0 0 (0) 1 0 (0) 1 66.7%

* Stuffs are rushes stopped at or behind the line. They are not necessarily tackles for loss (since they include zero-yard gains), so adding sacks and stuffs won't necessarily equal TFLs. Also: the figure is based on how many stuffs a tackler has taken part in -- solo tackles and assist tackles count for the same amount.

** For defenders, Success Rate is defined as the offense's success rate on plays in which the defender made a tackle. The lower the number, the better for the defender. On average, due to proximity to the line of scrimmage, defensive linemen will produce lower success rates than linebackers, who producer lower rates than defensive backs.

Special Teams

Rating Rank
Special Teams S&P+ 0.6 20
Category Rate Rank
FG Value (per kick) 0.22 32
Punt Success Rate 71.7% 14
Kickoff Success Rate 57.1% 120
Punt Return Success Rate 53.8% 46
Kick Return Success Rate 48.9% 42
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Jake Suder 5'11, 176 JR 32-33 18-22 81.8%
Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Joseph Davidson 6'7, 236 SR 60 44.0 2 18 26 73.3%
Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Nick Fields 6'1, 213 SR 63 57.2 18 28.6% 0 0 2 0
Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Marcus Milton 6'0, 188 JR 13 8.0 0 10 1 (1)
Janarvis Pough 6'2, 181 SO 0 0.0 0 1 0 (0)
Brandon Harris 6'4, 212 JR 0 0.0 0 1 0 (0)
Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Matthew Wilcox Jr. 5'10, 178 FR 21 24.6 0 0 0 (0)
Andrew Clair 5'10, 187 FR 16 20.6 0 0 0 (0)
Terence Stephens Jr. 6'1, 199 SO 4 19.5 0 0 0 (0)
Tackler Pos Ht, Wt Year ST Tackles PR Avg KR Avg
Nilijah Ballew STUD 6'3, 207 SR 11.5 3.0 11.6
Jack Walz III STUD 5'11, 191 JR 9.0 6.3 14.2
Trevor Roop WR 5'11, 202 SR 8.0 4.3 13.0
Antonyo Sotolongo STUD 6'1, 198 SO 3.5 17.0
Dorian Hendrix LB 6'1, 240 JR 3.0 16.7

Stats via SportSource Analytics