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2017 Northwestern advanced statistical profile

Updated on 1/4/18

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2015 | 2016 | 2017

Northwestern Wildcats (Big Ten West)

2017 Schedule & Results
Record: 10-3 | Second-order wins (diff.): 8.1 (-1.9) | S&P+ Rk: 46
Date Opponent Opp. S&P+ Rk Score W-L Win
Expectancy
Adj. Scoring
Margin
Percentile
Performance
Off.
Percentile
Def.
Percentile
2-Sep Nevada 108 31-20 W 90% 11.6 72% 64% 67%
9-Sep at Duke 65 17-41 L 1% -22.2 13% 24% 16%
16-Sep Bowling Green 109 49-7 W 100% 44.9 94% 96% 89%
30-Sep at Wisconsin 6 24-33 L 1% -22.2 15% 22% 30%
7-Oct Penn State 4 7-31 L 0% -36.2 8% 3% 30%
14-Oct at Maryland 114 37-21 W 99% 21.5 84% 78% 77%
21-Oct Iowa 49 17-10 W 89% 11.3 74% 24% 93%
28-Oct Michigan State 19 39-31 W 35% -3.6 43% 76% 25%
4-Nov at Nebraska 103 31-24 W 98% 18.2 80% 70% 77%
11-Nov Purdue 41 23-13 W 73% 5.7 63% 33% 77%
18-Nov Minnesota 97 39-0 W 100% 35.3 93% 75% 96%
25-Nov at Illinois 118 42-7 W 100% 31.4 90% 77% 92%
29-Dec vs. Kentucky 90 24-23 W 27% -5.5 35% 31% 57%
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
S&P+ 26.8 82 21.9 23
Points Per Game 31.7 53 21.8 20
Five Factors
Offense Defense
Category Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
EFFICIENCY Success Rate 42.1% 58 38.4% 36 40.3%
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 1.02 120 1.14 52 1.17
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 30.3 47 30.1 82 29.6
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 4.49 65 3.48 6 4.42
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED 5.2 26 Turnover Luck (PPG):
+0.70
ACTUAL 7 26
Rushing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Rushing S&P+ 98.0 76 119.4 20 100.0
Rushing Success Rate 42.4% 69 36.3% 20 42.2%
Rushing IsoPPP 0.84 91 0.80 17 0.92
Adj. Line Yards 95.9 97 117.5 20 100.0
Opportunity Rate 37.4% 77 34.4% 27 38.5%
Power Success Rate 63.5% 96 53.7% 7 67.7%
Stuff Rate 17.6% 36 22.8% 30 19.3%

Individual Rushing Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Fumbles
(Lost)
Justin Jackson RB 5'11, 200 SR 287 1311 11 4.6 4.5 34.5% 1 (0)
Jeremy Larkin RB 5'10, 194 FR 84 503 5 6.0 5.5 42.9% 1 (1)
Clayton Thorson QB 6'4, 225 JR 57 232 8 4.1 4.5 31.6% 1 (1)
John Moten IV RB 6'0, 203 SO 17 55 0 3.2 2.3 35.3% 0 (0)
Matt Alviti QB 6'0, 204 SR 12 144 1 12.0 12.6 58.3% 0 (0)
Jelani Roberts WR 5'8, 172 JR 10 98 2 9.8 3.9 90.0% 1 (1)
Jesse Brown RB 5'11, 198 FR 9 64 2 7.1 4.3 55.6% 0 (0)
Auston Anderson RB 5'9, 198 JR 6 23 0 3.8 1.0 33.3% 0 (0)
Corey Acker RB 5'9, 188 SR 4 36 1 9.0 9.0 50.0% 0 (0)
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Passing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing S&P+ 101.4 62 100.6 62 100.0
Passing Success Rate 41.9% 51 39.9% 61 40.3%
Passing IsoPPP 1.21 127 1.37 41 1.48
Adj. Sack Rate 96.4 77 89.9 87 100

Individual Passing Stats

Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Clayton Thorson 6'4, 225 JR 262 434 2844 15 12 60.4% 30 6.5% 5.7
Matt Alviti 6'0, 204 SR 11 22 155 1 0 50.0% 1 4.3% 6.7
TJ Green 6'2, 202 SO 1 1 5 0 0 100.0% 0 0.0% 5.0

Individual Receiving Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate Success Rate Target
Rate
Bennett Skowronek WR 6'4, 218 SO 78 45 644 5 14.3 8.3 57.7% 51.3% 17.6%
Flynn Nagel WR 5'11, 194 JR 71 48 489 2 10.2 6.9 67.6% 52.1% 16.1%
Justin Jackson RB 5'11, 200 SR 59 44 276 0 6.3 4.7 74.6% 32.2% 13.3%
Macan Wilson WR 6'0, 185 SR 57 32 446 1 13.9 7.8 56.1% 49.1% 12.9%
Garrett Dickerson SB 6'3, 248 SR 56 37 401 4 10.8 7.2 66.1% 53.6% 12.7%
Riley Lees WR 6'0, 193 FR 36 18 235 2 13.1 6.5 50.0% 44.4% 8.1%
Cameron Green SB 6'3, 230 SO 28 20 170 2 8.5 6.1 71.4% 53.6% 6.3%
Jeremy Larkin RB 5'10, 194 FR 15 11 115 0 10.5 7.7 73.3% 53.3% 3.4%
Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman WR 6'2, 199 FR 10 4 35 1 8.8 3.5 40.0% 30.0% 2.3%
Jace James WR 6'0, 194 FR 7 3 41 0 13.7 5.9 42.9% 42.9% 1.6%
Jalen Brown WR 6'1, 198 JR 7 3 33 0 11.0 4.7 42.9% 42.9% 1.6%
Kyric McGowan WR 5'10, 191 FR 6 3 22 0 7.3 3.7 50.0% 33.3% 1.4%
Charlie Fessler WR 6'3, 210 SO 5 3 66 0 22.0 13.2 60.0% 60.0% 1.1%
Cody Link SB 6'3, 238 FR 3 2 29 0 14.5 9.7 66.7% 66.7% 0.7%
Clayton Thorson QB 6'4, 225 JR 1 1 24 0 24.0 24.0 100.0% 100.0% 0.2%
James Prather SB 6'4, 265 JR 1 1 9 0 9.0 9.0 100.0% 100.0% 0.2%
Standard Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Standard Downs S&P+ 103.4 55 105.6 41 100.0
Standard Downs Success Rate 48.9% 40 42.8% 29 46.5%
Standard Downs IsoPPP 0.98 106 1.03 52 1.07
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.89 69 2.32 10 2.92
SD Sack Rate 5.0% 66 4.9% 71 5.3%
Passing Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing Downs S&P+ 86.4 113 109.2 44 100.0
Passing Downs Success Rate 27.1% 105 29.9% 68 30.7%
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.22 128 1.46 48 1.53
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.48 41 3.00 47 3.22
PD Sack Rate 7.9% 73 6.2% 91 7.8%
Situational
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk
Q1 S&P+ 85.9 106 106.4 45
Q2 S&P+ 113.9 33 109.3 45
Q3 S&P+ 99.6 72 108.8 40
Q4 S&P+ 112.2 29 106.7 39
1st Down S&P+ 115.0 26 105.0 49
2nd Down S&P+ 94.0 93 110.8 35
3rd Down S&P+ 91.0 99 110.1 38
Offensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 54.4% 93 60.0%
Pass Downs Run Rate 39.6% 35 35.3%
Adj. Pace -1.3 35 +0.0
% of Solo Tackles 77.2% 34 73.8%
Defensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 48.9% 128 59.9%
Pass. Downs Run Rate 29.2% 113 35.0%
Overall Havoc Rate 20.1% 10 16.0%
DL Havoc Rate 7.2% 18 4.9%
LB Havoc Rate 5.7% 28 4.4%
DB Havoc Rate 7.1% 46 6.5%
PD to INC 35.4% 53 33.9%
Individual Defensive Stats
Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles TFL (Sacks) Run Stuffs* Int (PBU) FF Succ. Rate**
Paddy Fisher LB 6'4, 245 FR 89.0 9 (0) 18 1 (3) 4 35.4%
Godwin Igwebuike S 6'0, 212 SR 64.5 1.5 (0) 7 2 (9) 1 64.0%
Nate Hall LB 6'2, 230 JR 64.0 16.5 (5) 12 2 (6) 0 26.6%
Montre Hartage CB 6'0, 195 JR 53.0 2 (0) 2 3 (7) 1 82.5%
Brett Walsh LB 6'1, 220 SR 51.5 3.5 (1) 3 0 (1) 0 44.8%
Kyle Queiro S 6'3, 220 SR 46.0 5.5 (0) 7 5 (9) 1 60.7%
Joe Gaziano DL 6'4, 280 SO 30.0 12.5 (9) 11 0 (5) 4 13.9%
Tyler Lancaster DL 6'4, 315 SR 27.0 9.5 (2) 14 0 (1) 0 7.5%
Blake Gallagher LB 6'1, 221 FR 24.5 1 (0) 6 0 (0) 0 33.3%
Samdup Miller DL 6'3, 261 FR 24.0 8.5 (5.5) 4 0 (1) 0 18.8%
Alonzo Mayo DB 5'11, 188 SO 24.0 0.5 (0) 0 0 (1) 0 72.4%
Jared McGee S 6'1, 220 JR 21.5 0 (0) 1 0 (1) 1 73.9%
Alex Miller DL 6'3, 280 SO 18.0 4.5 (2) 5 0 (5) 0 22.7%
Warren Long LB 6'0, 218 SR 17.5 3 (1) 2 0 (0) 2 50.0%
Jordan Thompson DL 6'3, 290 JR 17.0 4.5 (2.5) 8 0 (1) 1 23.1%
Marcus McShepard DB 5'11, 200 SR 16.5 1 (0) 2 1 (2) 0 68.8%
Trae Williams DB 6'0, 212 SO 14.5 1 (0) 0 1 (3) 1 85.7%
Trent Goens DL 6'3, 254 SO 12.0 5.5 (4) 3 0 (0) 0 21.4%
Fred Wyatt DL 6'4, 290 JR 10.0 1.5 (0) 2 0 (0) 0 33.3%
Chris Bergin LB 5'11, 200 FR 10.0 1 (0) 1 0 (0) 0 62.5%
Corey Acker RB 5'9, 188 SR 8.5 0 (0) 0 (0) 0
Nathan Fox LB 6'2, 230 SO 8.0 0 (0) 0 0 (0) 0 62.5%
Ben Oxley DL 6'6, 286 JR 7.5 0 (0) 2 0 (0) 1 27.3%
Moe Almasri DB 5'11, 180 SR 6.0 0 (0) 0 (0) 0
Joe Bergin DB 5'11, 200 SO 5.5 0 (0) 0 0 (0) 0 66.7%

* Stuffs are rushes stopped at or behind the line. They are not necessarily tackles for loss (since they include zero-yard gains), so adding sacks and stuffs won't necessarily equal TFLs. Also: the figure is based on how many stuffs a tackler has taken part in -- solo tackles and assist tackles count for the same amount.

** For defenders, Success Rate is defined as the offense's success rate on plays in which the defender made a tackle. The lower the number, the better for the defender. On average, due to proximity to the line of scrimmage, defensive linemen will produce lower success rates than linebackers, who producer lower rates than defensive backs.

Special Teams

Rating Rank
Special Teams S&P+ -0.1 77
Category Rate Rank
FG Value (per kick) 0.10 54
Punt Success Rate 61.8% 45
Kickoff Success Rate 58.8% 116
Punt Return Success Rate 38.5% 91
Kick Return Success Rate 28.0% 124
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Charlie Kuhbander 6'0, 189 FR 43-44 13-16 81.3%
Makay Redd 6'1, 252 SR 2-2 0-0 #DIV/0!
Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Hunter Niswander 6'5, 243 SR 67 43.0 3 20 19 58.2%
Daniel Kubiuk 6'1, 210 JR 2 36.0 0 1 0 50.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Luke Otto 5'8, 220 SR 68 59.0 20 29.4% 0 1 3 0
Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Riley Lees 6'0, 193 FR 8 9.8 0 11 1 (0)
Flynn Nagel 5'11, 194 JR 5 3.2 0 14 0 (0)
Marcus McShepard 5'11, 200 SR 0 0.0 0 1 0 (0)
Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Riley Lees 6'0, 193 FR 11 20.4 0 0 0 (0)
John Moten IV 6'0, 203 SO 9 16.8 0 0 0 (0)
Jeremy Larkin 5'10, 194 FR 4 22.3 0 0 0 (0)
Tackler Pos Ht, Wt Year ST Tackles PR Avg KR Avg
Blake Gallagher LB 6'1, 221 FR 9.0 12.5 18.3
Corey Acker RB 5'9, 188 SR 8.5 4.0 21.5
Moe Almasri DB 5'11, 180 SR 6.0 -1.0 24.3
Joe Bergin DB 5'11, 200 SO 3.5 19.0
Jared McGee S 6'1, 220 JR 3.0 18.0

Stats via SportSource Analytics