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BYU 35, Boise State 24: More rabbits in the hat for the Cougars

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Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports

BYU 35, Boise State 24

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Boise State BYU Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 69 68
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 30.4 26.1 29.7
Possessions 16 14
Scoring Opportunities*
7 5
Points Per Opportunity 3.43 5.60 4.80
Leverage Rate** 71.0% 61.8% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.559 0.572 0.584
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Boise State BYU
Total 33.1 34.4
Rushing 7.8 10.6
Passing 25.3 23.9
Success Rate (what's this?) Boise State BYU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 39.1% 32.4% 41.3%
Rushing (close) 40.7% 34.3% 42.5%
Passing (close) 38.1% 30.3% 40.1%
Standard Downs 51.0% 31.0% 46.8%
Passing Downs 10.0% 34.6% 29.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Boise State BYU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.23 1.56 1.27
Rushing (close) 0.71 0.88 1.06
Passing (close) 1.58 2.39 1.49
Standard Downs 1.08 0.67 1.10
Passing Downs 3.03 2.86 1.83
Line Stats Boise State BYU Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.46 1.65 2.80
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 11.1% 5.9% 5.1%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 6.7% 18.8% 6.6%
Turnovers Boise State BYU
Turnovers 3 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 13.6 5.2
Turnover Margin BYU +1
Exp. TO Margin Boise State +0.8
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) BYU +1.8
TO Points Margin BYU +8.4 points
Situational Boise State BYU
Q1 S&P 0.721 0.637
Q2 S&P 0.465 0.322
Q3 S&P 0.717 0.673
Q4 S&P 0.000 0.596
1st Down S&P 0.546 0.545
2nd Down S&P 0.594 0.339
3rd Down S&P 0.566 0.488
Projected Scoring Margin: BYU by 9.7
Actual Scoring Margin: BYU by 11

I really like Boise State's game plan, and it showed in the standard downs numbers. The Broncos were far better at staying on schedule. The difference in the game, though, ended up being what happened when they fell off-schedule. BYU's success rate actually went UP on such downs (not exactly sustainable), and BSU's almost fell to zero.

Of course, "the difference in the game" was also a mini-Hail Mary and a pick six. But you know what I mean.