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BYU 35, Boise State 24
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Boise State | BYU | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 69 | 68 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 30.4 | 26.1 | 29.7 |
| Possessions | 16 | 14 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
7 | 5 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 3.43 | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| Leverage Rate** | 71.0% | 61.8% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.559 | 0.572 | 0.584 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Boise State | BYU | |
| Total | 33.1 | 34.4 | |
| Rushing | 7.8 | 10.6 | |
| Passing | 25.3 | 23.9 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Boise State | BYU | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 39.1% | 32.4% | 41.3% |
| Rushing (close) | 40.7% | 34.3% | 42.5% |
| Passing (close) | 38.1% | 30.3% | 40.1% |
| Standard Downs | 51.0% | 31.0% | 46.8% |
| Passing Downs | 10.0% | 34.6% | 29.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Boise State | BYU | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.23 | 1.56 | 1.27 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.71 | 0.88 | 1.06 |
| Passing (close) | 1.58 | 2.39 | 1.49 |
| Standard Downs | 1.08 | 0.67 | 1.10 |
| Passing Downs | 3.03 | 2.86 | 1.83 |
| Line Stats | Boise State | BYU | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.46 | 1.65 | 2.80 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 11.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 6.7% | 18.8% | 6.6% |
| Turnovers | Boise State | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 3 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 13.6 | 5.2 |
| Turnover Margin | BYU +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Boise State +0.8 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | BYU +1.8 | |
| TO Points Margin | BYU +8.4 points | |
| Situational | Boise State | BYU |
| Q1 S&P | 0.721 | 0.637 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.465 | 0.322 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.717 | 0.673 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.000 | 0.596 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.546 | 0.545 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.594 | 0.339 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.566 | 0.488 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: BYU by 9.7 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: BYU by 11 | ||
I really like Boise State's game plan, and it showed in the standard downs numbers. The Broncos were far better at staying on schedule. The difference in the game, though, ended up being what happened when they fell off-schedule. BYU's success rate actually went UP on such downs (not exactly sustainable), and BSU's almost fell to zero.
Of course, "the difference in the game" was also a mini-Hail Mary and a pick six. But you know what I mean.
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