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Again, we start with the good:
| Week 5 | 2014 Season | |
| Teams with 50-60% chance of winning | 0-1 (0%) | 12-11 (52%) |
| Teams with 60-70% chance of winning | 8-6 (57%) | 43-27 (61%) |
| Teams with 70-80% chance of winning | 10-5 (67%) | 68-15 (82%) |
| Teams with 80-90% chance of winning | 10-2 (83%) | 72-9 (89%) |
| Teams with 90-100% chance of winning | 9-1 (90%) | 59-2 (97%) |
The picks were a smidge off last week, but I've been expecting a couple of correction weeks at some point -- after so many weeks with the 70+% teams winning at a 90% level, I've assumed some regression will happen, and that set in at least a little bit. Pitt became only the second team with a 90+% chance to lose, and aside from the 70-80% bracket hitting at 82%, everything's about where it should be.
So I continue to feel good about the F/+ rankings as a whole, even if they trust Ole Miss a hell of a lot more than I do. But I also continue to feel less good about my ability to turn those ratings into solid picks.
| Week 4 | 2014 Season | |
| "NEW" Method | 22-29-1 (43%) | 129-145-4 (47%) |
| "OLD" Method | 25-26-1 (49%) | 112-117-3 (49%) |
| When Both Methods Agree | 9-13-1 (41%) | 63-73-2 (46%) |
Really, these picks are still paying for a first-week stinker. The typical path of hitting 55-65% in the first week, then slowly regressing toward 52% or so has basically played out ... only with a 50% first week.
I'm having some fun with the picks this week, however. I didn't really like the pace adjustments I added to the numbers last year (and hadn't been using them this year), and I've tweaked them a bit, but the numbers you see below now once again take pace into account. For projected scoring margin, that's important. For projected scores, it's a crap shoot. So because of some ridiculously high tempos, you get really fun picks like Oregon 67, Arizona 40, and Tennessee 47, Florida 44. I can't imagine those actually come true -- it would be awesome if it did -- but if they help me to make the predicted margins more correct, I'll live with it. The margins are all that really matter.
It makes the below list more entertaining to read, anyway. Average points per team below is something like 41 points, so ... that's probably off. If only.
FBS vs. FBS
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Thu | 7:00 PM | ESPN | Central Florida at Houston | -3 | Central Florida by 0.2 (35.7 - 35.5) | 55.9% | Central Florida | Central Florida by 2.9 | Central Florida | |
| Thu | 7:00 PM | Florida Atlantic at Florida International | 7 | Florida International by 2.8 (35.2 - 32.4) | 60.5% | Florida International | Florida International by 1.2 | Florida International | ||
| Thu | 10:30 PM | ESPN | Arizona at Oregon | -24 | Oregon by 27.3 (67.1 - 39.9) | 85.8% | Oregon | Oregon by 27.5 | Oregon | |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Fri | 7:00 PM | ESPN | Louisville at Syracuse | 2.5 | Louisville by 13.4 (41.6 - 28.2) | 73.1% | Louisville | Louisville by 17.9 | Louisville | |
| Fri | 10:00 PM | CBSSN | San Diego State at Fresno State | -3 | Fresno State by 0.6 (44.6 - 44.0) | 56.6% | San Diego State | San Diego State by 1.9 | San Diego State | |
| Fri | 10:15 PM | ESPN | Utah State at BYU | -20.5 | BYU by 27.5 (55.5 - 28.0) | 86.0% | BYU | BYU by 27.9 | BYU | |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | CBSSN | Ball State at Army | -2.5 | Army by 4.4 (46.3 - 41.8) | 62.2% | Army | Army by 2.6 | Army | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | SECN | Florida at Tennessee | -3 | Tennessee by 2.8 (47.1 - 44.4) | 59.4% | Florida | Tennessee by 0.3 | Florida | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | FS1 | Iowa State at Oklahoma State | -17 | Oklahoma State by 16.5 (49.4 - 33.0) | 78.2% | Iowa State | Oklahoma State by 18.1 | Oklahoma State | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Marshall at Old Dominion | 17.5 | Marshall by 21.7 (53.4 - 31.7) | 82.3% | Marshall | Marshall by 28.2 | Marshall | ||
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ABC | Ohio State at Maryland | 8.5 | Ohio State by 2.1 (42.2 - 40.1) | 58.7% | Maryland | Ohio State by 5.1 | Maryland | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Purdue at Illinois | -10 | Illinois by 10.1 (40.1 - 30.1) | 70.8% | Illinois | Illinois by 10.4 | Illinois | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPNU | SMU at East Carolina | -41 | East Carolina by 33.0 (56.0 - 23.0) | 91.7% | SMU | East Carolina by 37.2 | SMU | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Southern Miss at Middle Tennessee | -17.5 | Middle Tennessee by 18.7 (50.4 - 31.7) | 79.5% | Middle Tennessee | Middle Tennessee by 19.5 | Middle Tennessee | ||
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN | Texas A&M at Mississippi State | -2 | Mississippi State by 8.6 (49.1 - 40.5) | 67.2% | Mississippi State | Mississippi State by 7.0 | Mississippi State | |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Virginia Tech at North Carolina | 2 | Virginia Tech by 11.7 (44.2 - 32.6) | 70.4% | Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech by 15.2 | Virginia Tech | |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Eastern Michigan at Akron | -23 | Akron by 24.7 (44.4 - 19.8) | 86.7% | Akron | Akron by 28.9 | Akron | |
| Sat | 2:30 PM | ESPN3 | Massachusetts at Miami-OH | -3.5 | Miami-OH by 9.9 (40.3 - 30.4) | 70.4% | Miami-OH | Miami-OH by 10.0 | Miami-OH | |
| Sat | 2:30 PM | BTN | North Texas at Indiana | -13.5 | Indiana by 25.1 (53.6 - 28.5) | 84.7% | Indiana | Indiana by 26.1 | Indiana | |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | Tulsa at Colorado State | -15 | Colorado State by 21.1 (58.3 - 37.2) | 80.2% | Colorado State | Colorado State by 20.4 | Colorado State | ||
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBS | Alabama at Ole Miss | 7 | Ole Miss by 3.0 (38.5 - 35.5) | 59.8% | Ole Miss | Ole Miss by 0.6 | Ole Miss | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC | Baylor at Texas | 15 | Baylor by 16.4 (44.8 - 28.3) | 75.5% | Baylor | Baylor by 20.4 | Baylor | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Buffalo at Bowling Green | -5.5 | Bowling Green by 7.7 (56.8 - 49.1) | 65.3% | Bowling Green | Bowling Green by 5.3 | Buffalo | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBSSN | Navy at Air Force | 4 | Navy by 5.5 (47.0 - 41.5) | 63.3% | Navy | Navy by 8.8 | Navy | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPNU | NC State at Clemson | -14.5 | Clemson by 16.0 (50.0 - 34.0) | 75.3% | Clemson | Clemson by 14.9 | Clemson | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | New Mexico at UTSA | -17 | UTSA by 21.6 (48.8 - 27.2) | 83.3% | UTSA | UTSA by 24.2 | UTSA | ||
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Ohio at Central Michigan | -4 | Central Michigan by 7.4 (39.0 - 31.6) | 67.7% | Central Michigan | Central Michigan by 7.5 | Central Michigan | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Fox | Oklahoma at TCU | 5.5 | Oklahoma by 6.0 (44.7 - 38.7) | 63.7% | Oklahoma | Oklahoma by 9.3 | Oklahoma | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | NBC | Stanford at Notre Dame | 1.5 | Stanford by 5.8 (30.0 - 24.2) | 64.8% | Stanford | Stanford by 10.2 | Stanford | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC | Wake Forest at Florida State | -38 | Florida State by 35.5 (49.1 - 13.6) | 95.8% | Wake Forest | Florida State by 47.0 | Florida State | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN2 | Wisconsin at Northwestern | 8 | Wisconsin by 6.5 (35.3 - 28.8) | 64.8% | Northwestern | Wisconsin by 10.2 | Wisconsin | XXX |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | Kansas at West Virginia | -26 | West Virginia by 37.1 (64.1 - 27.0) | 90.6% | West Virginia | West Virginia by 35.2 | West Virginia | ||
| Sat | 4:00 PM | Pac-12 | Oregon State at Colorado | 7 | Oregon State by 5.6 (45.8 - 40.2) | 63.2% | Colorado | Oregon State by 8.8 | Oregon State | XXX |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | SECN | Vanderbilt at Georgia | -33.5 | Georgia by 28.0 (49.0 - 20.9) | 92.1% | Vanderbilt | Georgia by 37.9 | Georgia | XXX |
| Sat | 5:00 PM | ESPN3 | Kent State at Northern Illinois | -24.5 | Northern Illinois by 23.9 (50.0 - 26.1) | 84.8% | Kent State | Northern Illinois by 26.2 | Northern Illinois | XXX |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | South Alabama at Appalachian State | 4 | South Alabama by 10.6 (43.5 - 32.9) | 70.0% | South Alabama | South Alabama by 14.9 | South Alabama | |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Georgia State at UL-Lafayette | -17 | UL-Lafayette by 11.0 (48.8 - 37.8) | 70.8% | Georgia State | UL-Lafayette by 10.4 | Georgia State | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Hawaii at Rice | -6.5 | Rice by 5.9 (46.4 - 40.5) | 63.1% | Hawaii | Rice by 3.3 | Hawaii | ||
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Idaho at Texas State | -17 | Texas State by 13.1 (55.8 - 42.7) | 71.5% | Idaho | Texas State by 11.0 | Idaho | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN | LSU at Auburn | -7.5 | Auburn by 7.0 (42.2 - 35.2) | 65.5% | LSU | Auburn by 5.4 | LSU | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | CBSSN | Memphis at Cincinnati | -4 | Cincinnati by 3.4 (43.7 - 40.3) | 60.7% | Memphis | Cincinnati by 1.4 | Memphis | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | BTN | Michigan at Rutgers | -3 | Rutgers by 5.7 (37.7 - 31.9) | 65.1% | Rutgers | Rutgers by 5.1 | Rutgers | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Texas Tech at Kansas State | -12.5 | Kansas State by 18.3 (50.0 - 31.7) | 79.2% | Kansas State | Kansas State by 19.1 | Kansas State | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Toledo at Western Michigan | 5.5 | Western Michigan by 0.2 (48.6 - 48.4) | 56.0% | Western Michigan | Toledo by 2.4 | Western Michigan | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | UAB at Western Kentucky | -9 | Western Kentucky by 17.6 (60.6 - 43.0) | 75.1% | Western Kentucky | Western Kentucky by 14.7 | Western Kentucky | ||
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | UL-Monroe at Arkansas State | -11 | Arkansas State by 15.3 (48.3 - 33.1) | 74.5% | Arkansas State | Arkansas State by 14.1 | Arkansas State | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | UTEP at Louisiana Tech | -12 | Louisiana Tech by 12.8 (44.2 - 31.4) | 74.2% | Louisiana Tech | Louisiana Tech by 13.7 | Louisiana Tech | ||
| Sat | 7:30 PM | Fox | Arizona State at USC | -12 | USC by 22.3 (62.7 - 40.4) | 80.8% | USC | USC by 21.0 | USC | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | ESPN2 | Miami-FL at Georgia Tech | 1 | Georgia Tech by 0.4 (43.7 - 43.3) | 56.4% | Georgia Tech | Miami-FL by 2.1 | Miami-FL | XXX |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | ESPN3 | Pittsburgh at Virginia | -7 | Virginia by 5.4 (46.5 - 41.0) | 63.1% | Pittsburgh | Virginia by 3.4 | Pittsburgh | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | SECN | South Carolina at Kentucky | 5 | South Carolina by 11.6 (45.1 - 33.5) | 71.4% | South Carolina | South Carolina by 16.3 | South Carolina | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ESPN3 | Georgia Southern at New Mexico State | 17.5 | Georgia Southern by 14.7 (49.9 - 35.2) | 75.4% | New Mexico State | Georgia Southern by 20.3 | Georgia Southern | XXX |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ABC | Nebraska at Michigan State | -7 | Michigan State by 11.7 (56.7 - 45.0) | 70.5% | Michigan State | Michigan State by 10.0 | Michigan State | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ESPN News | UNLV at San Jose State | -10 | San Jose State by 14.8 (49.7 - 34.9) | 75.3% | San Jose State | San Jose State by 14.9 | San Jose State | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | CBSSN | Boise State at Nevada | 3.5 | Boise State by 5.2 (43.7 - 38.5) | 62.7% | Boise State | Boise State by 8.3 | Boise State | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | Pac-12 | California at Washington State | -3.5 | Washington State by 9.8 (54.6 - 44.8) | 68.6% | Washington State | Washington State by 8.3 | Washington State | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | ESPN | Utah at UCLA | -13 | UCLA by 15.5 (46.5 - 31.0) | 75.4% | UCLA | UCLA by 15.0 | UCLA |
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