clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

College football projections: Week 6 F/+ picks

New, 1 comment
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Again, we start with the good:

Week 5 2014 Season
Teams with 50-60% chance of winning 0-1 (0%) 12-11 (52%)
Teams with 60-70% chance of winning 8-6 (57%) 43-27 (61%)
Teams with 70-80% chance of winning 10-5 (67%) 68-15 (82%)
Teams with 80-90% chance of winning 10-2 (83%) 72-9 (89%)
Teams with 90-100% chance of winning 9-1 (90%) 59-2 (97%)

The picks were a smidge off last week, but I've been expecting a couple of correction weeks at some point -- after so many weeks with the 70+% teams winning at a 90% level, I've assumed some regression will happen, and that set in at least a little bit. Pitt became only the second team with a 90+% chance to lose, and aside from the 70-80% bracket hitting at 82%, everything's about where it should be.

So I continue to feel good about the F/+ rankings as a whole, even if they trust Ole Miss a hell of a lot more than I do. But I also continue to feel less good about my ability to turn those ratings into solid picks.

Week 4 2014 Season
"NEW" Method 22-29-1 (43%) 129-145-4 (47%)
"OLD" Method 25-26-1 (49%) 112-117-3 (49%)
When Both Methods Agree 9-13-1 (41%) 63-73-2 (46%)

Really, these picks are still paying for a first-week stinker. The typical path of hitting 55-65% in the first week, then slowly regressing toward 52% or so has basically played out ... only with a 50% first week.

I'm having some fun with the picks this week, however. I didn't really like the pace adjustments I added to the numbers last year (and hadn't been using them this year), and I've tweaked them a bit, but the numbers you see below now once again take pace into account. For projected scoring margin, that's important. For projected scores, it's a crap shoot. So because of some ridiculously high tempos, you get really fun picks like Oregon 67, Arizona 40, and Tennessee 47, Florida 44. I can't imagine those actually come true -- it would be awesome if it did -- but if they help me to make the predicted margins more correct, I'll live with it. The margins are all that really matter.

It makes the below list more entertaining to read, anyway. Average points per team below is something like 41 points, so ... that's probably off. If only.

FBS vs. FBS

Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Thu 7:00 PM ESPN Central Florida at Houston -3 Central Florida by 0.2 (35.7 - 35.5) 55.9% Central Florida Central Florida by 2.9 Central Florida
Thu 7:00 PM Florida Atlantic at Florida International 7 Florida International by 2.8 (35.2 - 32.4) 60.5% Florida International Florida International by 1.2 Florida International
Thu 10:30 PM ESPN Arizona at Oregon -24 Oregon by 27.3 (67.1 - 39.9) 85.8% Oregon Oregon by 27.5 Oregon
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Fri 7:00 PM ESPN Louisville at Syracuse 2.5 Louisville by 13.4 (41.6 - 28.2) 73.1% Louisville Louisville by 17.9 Louisville
Fri 10:00 PM CBSSN San Diego State at Fresno State -3 Fresno State by 0.6 (44.6 - 44.0) 56.6% San Diego State San Diego State by 1.9 San Diego State
Fri 10:15 PM ESPN Utah State at BYU -20.5 BYU by 27.5 (55.5 - 28.0) 86.0% BYU BYU by 27.9 BYU
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Sat 12:00 PM CBSSN Ball State at Army -2.5 Army by 4.4 (46.3 - 41.8) 62.2% Army Army by 2.6 Army
Sat 12:00 PM SECN Florida at Tennessee -3 Tennessee by 2.8 (47.1 - 44.4) 59.4% Florida Tennessee by 0.3 Florida
Sat 12:00 PM FS1 Iowa State at Oklahoma State -17 Oklahoma State by 16.5 (49.4 - 33.0) 78.2% Iowa State Oklahoma State by 18.1 Oklahoma State XXX
Sat 12:00 PM Marshall at Old Dominion 17.5 Marshall by 21.7 (53.4 - 31.7) 82.3% Marshall Marshall by 28.2 Marshall
Sat 12:00 PM ABC Ohio State at Maryland 8.5 Ohio State by 2.1 (42.2 - 40.1) 58.7% Maryland Ohio State by 5.1 Maryland
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN2 Purdue at Illinois -10 Illinois by 10.1 (40.1 - 30.1) 70.8% Illinois Illinois by 10.4 Illinois
Sat 12:00 PM ESPNU SMU at East Carolina -41 East Carolina by 33.0 (56.0 - 23.0) 91.7% SMU East Carolina by 37.2 SMU
Sat 12:00 PM Southern Miss at Middle Tennessee -17.5 Middle Tennessee by 18.7 (50.4 - 31.7) 79.5% Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee by 19.5 Middle Tennessee
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN Texas A&M at Mississippi State -2 Mississippi State by 8.6 (49.1 - 40.5) 67.2% Mississippi State Mississippi State by 7.0 Mississippi State
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 Virginia Tech at North Carolina 2 Virginia Tech by 11.7 (44.2 - 32.6) 70.4% Virginia Tech Virginia Tech by 15.2 Virginia Tech
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Eastern Michigan at Akron -23 Akron by 24.7 (44.4 - 19.8) 86.7% Akron Akron by 28.9 Akron
Sat 2:30 PM ESPN3 Massachusetts at Miami-OH -3.5 Miami-OH by 9.9 (40.3 - 30.4) 70.4% Miami-OH Miami-OH by 10.0 Miami-OH
Sat 2:30 PM BTN North Texas at Indiana -13.5 Indiana by 25.1 (53.6 - 28.5) 84.7% Indiana Indiana by 26.1 Indiana
Sat 3:00 PM Tulsa at Colorado State -15 Colorado State by 21.1 (58.3 - 37.2) 80.2% Colorado State Colorado State by 20.4 Colorado State
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Sat 3:30 PM CBS Alabama at Ole Miss 7 Ole Miss by 3.0 (38.5 - 35.5) 59.8% Ole Miss Ole Miss by 0.6 Ole Miss
Sat 3:30 PM ABC Baylor at Texas 15 Baylor by 16.4 (44.8 - 28.3) 75.5% Baylor Baylor by 20.4 Baylor
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Buffalo at Bowling Green -5.5 Bowling Green by 7.7 (56.8 - 49.1) 65.3% Bowling Green Bowling Green by 5.3 Buffalo XXX
Sat 3:30 PM CBSSN Navy at Air Force 4 Navy by 5.5 (47.0 - 41.5) 63.3% Navy Navy by 8.8 Navy
Sat 3:30 PM ESPNU NC State at Clemson -14.5 Clemson by 16.0 (50.0 - 34.0) 75.3% Clemson Clemson by 14.9 Clemson
Sat 3:30 PM New Mexico at UTSA -17 UTSA by 21.6 (48.8 - 27.2) 83.3% UTSA UTSA by 24.2 UTSA
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Ohio at Central Michigan -4 Central Michigan by 7.4 (39.0 - 31.6) 67.7% Central Michigan Central Michigan by 7.5 Central Michigan
Sat 3:30 PM Fox Oklahoma at TCU 5.5 Oklahoma by 6.0 (44.7 - 38.7) 63.7% Oklahoma Oklahoma by 9.3 Oklahoma
Sat 3:30 PM NBC Stanford at Notre Dame 1.5 Stanford by 5.8 (30.0 - 24.2) 64.8% Stanford Stanford by 10.2 Stanford
Sat 3:30 PM ABC Wake Forest at Florida State -38 Florida State by 35.5 (49.1 - 13.6) 95.8% Wake Forest Florida State by 47.0 Florida State XXX
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN2 Wisconsin at Northwestern 8 Wisconsin by 6.5 (35.3 - 28.8) 64.8% Northwestern Wisconsin by 10.2 Wisconsin XXX
Sat 4:00 PM Kansas at West Virginia -26 West Virginia by 37.1 (64.1 - 27.0) 90.6% West Virginia West Virginia by 35.2 West Virginia
Sat 4:00 PM Pac-12 Oregon State at Colorado 7 Oregon State by 5.6 (45.8 - 40.2) 63.2% Colorado Oregon State by 8.8 Oregon State XXX
Sat 4:00 PM SECN Vanderbilt at Georgia -33.5 Georgia by 28.0 (49.0 - 20.9) 92.1% Vanderbilt Georgia by 37.9 Georgia XXX
Sat 5:00 PM ESPN3 Kent State at Northern Illinois -24.5 Northern Illinois by 23.9 (50.0 - 26.1) 84.8% Kent State Northern Illinois by 26.2 Northern Illinois XXX
Sat 6:00 PM ESPN3 South Alabama at Appalachian State 4 South Alabama by 10.6 (43.5 - 32.9) 70.0% South Alabama South Alabama by 14.9 South Alabama
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Georgia State at UL-Lafayette -17 UL-Lafayette by 11.0 (48.8 - 37.8) 70.8% Georgia State UL-Lafayette by 10.4 Georgia State
Sat 7:00 PM Hawaii at Rice -6.5 Rice by 5.9 (46.4 - 40.5) 63.1% Hawaii Rice by 3.3 Hawaii
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Idaho at Texas State -17 Texas State by 13.1 (55.8 - 42.7) 71.5% Idaho Texas State by 11.0 Idaho
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN LSU at Auburn -7.5 Auburn by 7.0 (42.2 - 35.2) 65.5% LSU Auburn by 5.4 LSU
Sat 7:00 PM CBSSN Memphis at Cincinnati -4 Cincinnati by 3.4 (43.7 - 40.3) 60.7% Memphis Cincinnati by 1.4 Memphis
Sat 7:00 PM BTN Michigan at Rutgers -3 Rutgers by 5.7 (37.7 - 31.9) 65.1% Rutgers Rutgers by 5.1 Rutgers
Sat 7:00 PM ESPNU Texas Tech at Kansas State -12.5 Kansas State by 18.3 (50.0 - 31.7) 79.2% Kansas State Kansas State by 19.1 Kansas State
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Toledo at Western Michigan 5.5 Western Michigan by 0.2 (48.6 - 48.4) 56.0% Western Michigan Toledo by 2.4 Western Michigan
Sat 7:00 PM UAB at Western Kentucky -9 Western Kentucky by 17.6 (60.6 - 43.0) 75.1% Western Kentucky Western Kentucky by 14.7 Western Kentucky
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 UL-Monroe at Arkansas State -11 Arkansas State by 15.3 (48.3 - 33.1) 74.5% Arkansas State Arkansas State by 14.1 Arkansas State
Sat 7:00 PM UTEP at Louisiana Tech -12 Louisiana Tech by 12.8 (44.2 - 31.4) 74.2% Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech by 13.7 Louisiana Tech
Sat 7:30 PM Fox Arizona State at USC -12 USC by 22.3 (62.7 - 40.4) 80.8% USC USC by 21.0 USC
Sat 7:30 PM ESPN2 Miami-FL at Georgia Tech 1 Georgia Tech by 0.4 (43.7 - 43.3) 56.4% Georgia Tech Miami-FL by 2.1 Miami-FL XXX
Sat 7:30 PM ESPN3 Pittsburgh at Virginia -7 Virginia by 5.4 (46.5 - 41.0) 63.1% Pittsburgh Virginia by 3.4 Pittsburgh
Sat 7:30 PM SECN South Carolina at Kentucky 5 South Carolina by 11.6 (45.1 - 33.5) 71.4% South Carolina South Carolina by 16.3 South Carolina
Sat 8:00 PM ESPN3 Georgia Southern at New Mexico State 17.5 Georgia Southern by 14.7 (49.9 - 35.2) 75.4% New Mexico State Georgia Southern by 20.3 Georgia Southern XXX
Sat 8:00 PM ABC Nebraska at Michigan State -7 Michigan State by 11.7 (56.7 - 45.0) 70.5% Michigan State Michigan State by 10.0 Michigan State
Sat 8:00 PM ESPN News UNLV at San Jose State -10 San Jose State by 14.8 (49.7 - 34.9) 75.3% San Jose State San Jose State by 14.9 San Jose State
Sat 10:30 PM CBSSN Boise State at Nevada 3.5 Boise State by 5.2 (43.7 - 38.5) 62.7% Boise State Boise State by 8.3 Boise State
Sat 10:30 PM Pac-12 California at Washington State -3.5 Washington State by 9.8 (54.6 - 44.8) 68.6% Washington State Washington State by 8.3 Washington State
Sat 10:30 PM ESPN Utah at UCLA -13 UCLA by 15.5 (46.5 - 31.0) 75.4% UCLA UCLA by 15.0 UCLA