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Win projections
| East | F/+ Ranking | Proj. Conf. Wins |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan State | 13 | 5.71 |
| Ohio State | 17 | 5.33 |
| Maryland (1-0) | 33 | 4.26 |
| Penn State (1-1) | 39 | 4.05 |
| Michigan (0-1) | 49 | 3.05 |
| Rutgers (0-1) | 43 | 2.85 |
| Indiana (0-1) | 64 | 2.57 |
| West | F/+ Ranking | Proj. Conf. Wins |
| Wisconsin | 19 | 5.69 |
| Nebraska (1-0) | 30 | 5.14 |
| Minnesota (1-0) | 36 | 4.88 |
| Northwestern (1-0) | 53 | 4.47 |
| Iowa (1-0) | 58 | 4.21 |
| Illinois (0-1) | 77 | 2.32 |
| Purdue (0-1) | 91 | 1.48 |
There was quite a bit of rankings movement within the conference this week.
Up: Minnesota (63rd to 36th), Northwestern (68th to 53rd), Maryland (46th to 33rd), Rutgers (52nd to 43rd)
Down: Iowa (44th to 58th), Michigan (32nd to 49th), Indiana (39th to 64th)
With that, the win projections themselves changed quite a bit as well. Indiana and Michigan plummeted, Maryland, Minnesota, and Northwestern surged, and the gap closed for Wisconsin in the West.
So basically, the East is Michigan State vs. Ohio State (as expected), with Maryland creeping to within 1.5 projected wins of the leader. Meanwhile, Wisconsin has a little work to do to fend off both Nebraska and Minnesota, and both Northwestern and Iowa are lingering as darkhorses.
Sure bets
Here are the remaining in-conference win probabilities, broken into ranges.
| Team / Range | 10-19% Chance |
20-29% Chance |
30-39% Chance |
40-49% Chance |
50-59% Chance |
60-69% Chance |
70-79% Chance |
80-89% Chance |
| Illinois | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Indiana | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Iowa | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Maryland | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Michigan | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| Michigan State | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||||
| Minnesota | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Nebraska | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Northwestern | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| Ohio State | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |||
| Penn State | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Purdue | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||||
| Rutgers | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Wisconsin | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Slog Level Delta
| Record | West Winner | East Winner |
| 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 6.2% | 10.2% |
| 6-2 | 43.8% | 43.4% |
| 7-1 | 40.8% | 36.6% |
| 8-0 | 9.1% | 9.7% |
This week
There are five conference games this week in the Big Ten:
- Purdue at Illinois (12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2). Win probability: Illinois 71%.
- Ohio State at Maryland (12:00 p.m. ET, ABC). Win probability: Ohio State 59%.
- Wisconsin at Northwestern (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2). Win probability: Wisconsin 65%.
- Michigan at Rutgers (7:00 p.m. ET, BTN). Win probability: Rutgers 65%!
- Nebraska at Michigan State (8:00 p.m. ET, ABC). Win probability: Michigan State 70%.
All Projections
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 6 | 04-Oct-14 | Wisconsin | Northwestern | 64.8% |
| 6 | 04-Oct-14 | Ohio State | Maryland | 58.7% |
| 6 | 04-Oct-14 | Michigan | Rutgers | 34.9% |
| 6 | 04-Oct-14 | Nebraska | Michigan State | 29.5% |
| 6 | 04-Oct-14 | Purdue | Illinois | 29.2% |
| 7 | 11-Oct-14 | Michigan State | Purdue | 83.8% |
| 7 | 11-Oct-14 | Penn State | Michigan | 40.4% |
| 7 | 11-Oct-14 | Indiana | Iowa | 33.0% |
| 7 | 11-Oct-14 | Northwestern | Minnesota | 30.8% |
| 7 | 11-Oct-14 | Illinois | Wisconsin | 14.5% |
| 8 | 18-Oct-14 | Michigan State | Indiana | 72.3% |
| 8 | 18-Oct-14 | Nebraska | Northwestern | 60.9% |
| 8 | 18-Oct-14 | Iowa | Maryland | 29.5% |
| 8 | 18-Oct-14 | Rutgers | Ohio State | 24.8% |
| 8 | 18-Oct-14 | Purdue | Minnesota | 15.6% |
| 9 | 25-Oct-14 | Minnesota | Illinois | 66.6% |
| 9 | 25-Oct-14 | Ohio State | Penn State | 60.3% |
| 9 | 25-Oct-14 | Rutgers | Nebraska | 29.1% |
| 9 | 25-Oct-14 | Maryland | Wisconsin | 28.5% |
| 9 | 25-Oct-14 | Michigan | Michigan State | 21.3% |
| 10 | 01-Nov-14 | Wisconsin | Rutgers | 60.8% |
| 10 | 01-Nov-14 | Maryland | Penn State | 38.3% |
| 10 | 01-Nov-14 | Northwestern | Iowa | 37.3% |
| 10 | 01-Nov-14 | Indiana | Michigan | 30.6% |
| 10 | 01-Nov-14 | Illinois | Ohio State | 13.8% |
| 10 | 01-Nov-14 | Purdue | Nebraska | 12.1% |
| 11 | 08-Nov-14 | Wisconsin | Purdue | 81.3% |
| 11 | 08-Nov-14 | Penn State | Indiana | 58.7% |
| 11 | 08-Nov-14 | Michigan | Northwestern | 38.9% |
| 11 | 08-Nov-14 | Ohio State | Michigan State | 34.2% |
| 11 | 08-Nov-14 | Iowa | Minnesota | 30.4% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Michigan State | Maryland | 61.4% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Iowa | Illinois | 59.9% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Ohio State | Minnesota | 59.8% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Nebraska | Wisconsin | 33.0% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Indiana | Rutgers | 28.9% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Northwestern | Purdue | 68.3% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Penn State | Illinois | 66.0% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Wisconsin | Iowa | 65.3% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Maryland | Michigan | 42.0% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Minnesota | Nebraska | 31.1% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Rutgers | Michigan State | 22.7% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Indiana | Ohio State | 18.5% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Michigan State | Penn State | 63.0% |
| 14 | 28-Nov-14 | Nebraska | Iowa | 61.4% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Rutgers | Maryland | 33.7% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Minnesota | Wisconsin | 27.6% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Illinois | Northwestern | 26.1% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Michigan | Ohio State | 23.3% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Purdue | Indiana | 23.1% |
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