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Updated Big Ten football projections

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Each Wednesday at SB Nation, I dedicate my Morning Tailgate column to win projections, checking out a given conference race. Last week, I took a look at the Big Ten. It was the SEC's turn this morning, but since I've already created the file, I figured I could take a look at the updated Big Ten numbers. Why not?

Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports

Win projections

East F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins
Michigan State 13 5.71
Ohio State 17 5.33
Maryland (1-0) 33 4.26
Penn State (1-1) 39 4.05
Michigan (0-1) 49 3.05
Rutgers (0-1) 43 2.85
Indiana (0-1) 64 2.57
West F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins
Wisconsin 19 5.69
Nebraska (1-0) 30 5.14
Minnesota (1-0) 36 4.88
Northwestern (1-0) 53 4.47
Iowa (1-0) 58 4.21
Illinois (0-1) 77 2.32
Purdue (0-1) 91 1.48

There was quite a bit of rankings movement within the conference this week.

Up: Minnesota (63rd to 36th), Northwestern (68th to 53rd), Maryland (46th to 33rd), Rutgers (52nd to 43rd)

Down: Iowa (44th to 58th), Michigan (32nd to 49th), Indiana (39th to 64th)

With that, the win projections themselves changed quite a bit as well. Indiana and Michigan plummeted, Maryland, Minnesota, and Northwestern surged, and the gap closed for Wisconsin in the West.

So basically, the East is Michigan State vs. Ohio State (as expected), with Maryland creeping to within 1.5 projected wins of the leader. Meanwhile, Wisconsin has a little work to do to fend off both Nebraska and Minnesota, and both Northwestern and Iowa are lingering as darkhorses.

Sure bets

Here are the remaining in-conference win probabilities, broken into ranges.

Team / Range 10-19%
Chance
20-29%
Chance
30-39%
Chance
40-49%
Chance
50-59%
Chance
60-69%
Chance
70-79%
Chance
80-89%
Chance
Illinois 3 1 2 1 1
Indiana 1 3 1 1 1 1
Iowa 2 2 2 2
Maryland 1 3 2 2
Michigan 2 1 3 2
Michigan State 3 3 2
Minnesota 1 3 1 1 1 1
Nebraska 2 1 1 2 2
Northwestern 1 2 3 2
Ohio State 1 1 1 4 1
Penn State 2 2 2 1
Purdue 4 3 1
Rutgers 1 2 2 1 1
Wisconsin 2 2 4

Slog Level Delta

Record West Winner East Winner
4-4 0.0% 0.1%
5-3 6.2% 10.2%
6-2 43.8% 43.4%
7-1 40.8% 36.6%
8-0 9.1% 9.7%
Odds of Big Ten conference records

This week

There are five conference games this week in the Big Ten:

  • Purdue at Illinois (12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2). Win probability: Illinois 71%.
  • Ohio State at Maryland (12:00 p.m. ET, ABC). Win probability: Ohio State 59%.
  • Wisconsin at Northwestern (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2). Win probability: Wisconsin 65%.
  • Michigan at Rutgers (7:00 p.m. ET, BTN). Win probability: Rutgers 65%!
  • Nebraska at Michigan State (8:00 p.m. ET, ABC). Win probability: Michigan State 70%.

All Projections

Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
6 04-Oct-14 Wisconsin Northwestern 64.8%
6 04-Oct-14 Ohio State Maryland 58.7%
6 04-Oct-14 Michigan Rutgers 34.9%
6 04-Oct-14 Nebraska Michigan State 29.5%
6 04-Oct-14 Purdue Illinois 29.2%
7 11-Oct-14 Michigan State Purdue 83.8%
7 11-Oct-14 Penn State Michigan 40.4%
7 11-Oct-14 Indiana Iowa 33.0%
7 11-Oct-14 Northwestern Minnesota 30.8%
7 11-Oct-14 Illinois Wisconsin 14.5%
8 18-Oct-14 Michigan State Indiana 72.3%
8 18-Oct-14 Nebraska Northwestern 60.9%
8 18-Oct-14 Iowa Maryland 29.5%
8 18-Oct-14 Rutgers Ohio State 24.8%
8 18-Oct-14 Purdue Minnesota 15.6%
9 25-Oct-14 Minnesota Illinois 66.6%
9 25-Oct-14 Ohio State Penn State 60.3%
9 25-Oct-14 Rutgers Nebraska 29.1%
9 25-Oct-14 Maryland Wisconsin 28.5%
9 25-Oct-14 Michigan Michigan State 21.3%
10 01-Nov-14 Wisconsin Rutgers 60.8%
10 01-Nov-14 Maryland Penn State 38.3%
10 01-Nov-14 Northwestern Iowa 37.3%
10 01-Nov-14 Indiana Michigan 30.6%
10 01-Nov-14 Illinois Ohio State 13.8%
10 01-Nov-14 Purdue Nebraska 12.1%
11 08-Nov-14 Wisconsin Purdue 81.3%
11 08-Nov-14 Penn State Indiana 58.7%
11 08-Nov-14 Michigan Northwestern 38.9%
11 08-Nov-14 Ohio State Michigan State 34.2%
11 08-Nov-14 Iowa Minnesota 30.4%
12 15-Nov-14 Michigan State Maryland 61.4%
12 15-Nov-14 Iowa Illinois 59.9%
12 15-Nov-14 Ohio State Minnesota 59.8%
12 15-Nov-14 Nebraska Wisconsin 33.0%
12 15-Nov-14 Indiana Rutgers 28.9%
13 22-Nov-14 Northwestern Purdue 68.3%
13 22-Nov-14 Penn State Illinois 66.0%
13 22-Nov-14 Wisconsin Iowa 65.3%
13 22-Nov-14 Maryland Michigan 42.0%
13 22-Nov-14 Minnesota Nebraska 31.1%
13 22-Nov-14 Rutgers Michigan State 22.7%
13 22-Nov-14 Indiana Ohio State 18.5%
14 29-Nov-14 Michigan State Penn State 63.0%
14 28-Nov-14 Nebraska Iowa 61.4%
14 29-Nov-14 Rutgers Maryland 33.7%
14 29-Nov-14 Minnesota Wisconsin 27.6%
14 29-Nov-14 Illinois Northwestern 26.1%
14 29-Nov-14 Michigan Ohio State 23.3%
14 29-Nov-14 Purdue Indiana 23.1%