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Florida State 56, NC State 41
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Florida State | NC State | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 71 | 87 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 31.3 | 34.1 | 29.8 |
| Possessions | 15 | 16 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
8 | 8 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 7.00 | 5.12 | 4.72 |
| Leverage Rate** | 73.2% | 69.0% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.632 | 0.582 | 0.507 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Florida State | NC State | |
| Total | 40.7 | 36.5 | |
| Rushing | 16.3 | 13.6 | |
| Passing | 24.4 | 22.9 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Florida State | NC State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 50.7% | 52.9% | 42.1% |
| Rushing (close) | 43.3% | 63.6% | 43.4% |
| Passing (close) | 56.1% | 46.3% | 40.8% |
| Standard Downs | 50.0% | 63.3% | 47.5% |
| Passing Downs | 52.6% | 29.6% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Florida State | NC State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.13 | 0.79 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.26 | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| Passing (close) | 1.06 | 0.92 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 1.11 | 0.76 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 1.19 | 0.95 | 1.13 |
| Line Stats | Florida State | NC State | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.08 | 3.97 | 2.90 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.5% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 6.7% | 9.1% | 7.3% |
| Turnovers | Florida State | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 4 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 17.0 | 10.0 |
| Turnover Margin | NC State +2 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Florida State +0.29 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | NC State +2.29 | |
| TO Points Margin | NC State +7.0 points | |
| Situational | Florida State | NC State |
| Q1 S&P | 0.582 | 0.759 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.582 | 0.376 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.729 | 0.605 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.609 | 0.535 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.545 | 0.648 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.684 | 0.543 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.795 | 0.484 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: NC State by 2.8 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Florida State by 15 | ||
So basically...
1. N.C. State was lucky in the turnovers department. There were five fumbles, and the Wolfpack recovered three of them, and of the five passes they defensed, they picked off two of them (40%, as compared to the typical ~22%). Plus, FSU broke up four passes and picked off none. Add that up, and State's turnover margin was quite a bit more positive than it should have been on average.
2. The numbers suggest that, with a couple turnovers' worth of luck in its corner, NC State probably should have won this game. In fact, the fact that FSU won by 15 was highly unlikely. It took perfect red zone execution (and FSU definitely had that) and some well-timed stops -- like holding FSU to a field goal after returning a pick to the FSU 12 in the fourth quarter. NC State was lucky to get the turnovers it did, but FSU needed a little bit of luck and timing to avoid falling victim to those turnovers.
3. I've been arguing with FSU fans in the Numerical thread all day, but I expected a lot more from FSU than I've seen this year, even taking into account the Jameis Winston suspension and the D-line injuries. FSU fans can lecture me about having too-high expectations, but nobody was saying that before the season started.
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