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Study Hall: Florida State 56, NC State 41

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Grant Halverson

Florida State 56, NC State 41

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Florida State NC State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 71 87
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 31.3 34.1 29.8
Possessions 15 16
Scoring Opportunities*
8 8
Points Per Opportunity 7.00 5.12 4.72
Leverage Rate** 73.2% 69.0% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.632 0.582 0.507
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Florida State NC State
Total 40.7 36.5
Rushing 16.3 13.6
Passing 24.4 22.9
Success Rate (what's this?) Florida State NC State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 50.7% 52.9% 42.1%
Rushing (close) 43.3% 63.6% 43.4%
Passing (close) 56.1% 46.3% 40.8%
Standard Downs 50.0% 63.3% 47.5%
Passing Downs 52.6% 29.6% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Florida State NC State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.13 0.79 0.85
Rushing (close) 1.26 0.65 0.72
Passing (close) 1.06 0.92 0.99
Standard Downs 1.11 0.76 0.77
Passing Downs 1.19 0.95 1.13
Line Stats Florida State NC State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.08 3.97 2.90
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 7.7% 6.3% 4.5%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 6.7% 9.1% 7.3%
Turnovers Florida State NC State
Turnovers 4 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 17.0 10.0
Turnover Margin NC State +2
Exp. TO Margin Florida State +0.29
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) NC State +2.29
TO Points Margin NC State +7.0 points
Situational Florida State NC State
Q1 S&P 0.582 0.759
Q2 S&P 0.582 0.376
Q3 S&P 0.729 0.605
Q4 S&P 0.609 0.535
1st Down S&P 0.545 0.648
2nd Down S&P 0.684 0.543
3rd Down S&P 0.795 0.484
Projected Scoring Margin: NC State by 2.8
Actual Scoring Margin: Florida State by 15

So basically...

1. N.C. State was lucky in the turnovers department. There were five fumbles, and the Wolfpack recovered three of them, and of the five passes they defensed, they picked off two of them (40%, as compared to the typical ~22%). Plus, FSU broke up four passes and picked off none. Add that up, and State's turnover margin was quite a bit more positive than it should have been on average.

2. The numbers suggest that, with a couple turnovers' worth of luck in its corner, NC State probably should have won this game. In fact, the fact that FSU won by 15 was highly unlikely. It took perfect red zone execution (and FSU definitely had that) and some well-timed stops -- like holding FSU to a field goal after returning a pick to the FSU 12 in the fourth quarter. NC State was lucky to get the turnovers it did, but FSU needed a little bit of luck and timing to avoid falling victim to those turnovers.

3. I've been arguing with FSU fans in the Numerical thread all day, but I expected a lot more from FSU than I've seen this year, even taking into account the Jameis Winston suspension and the D-line injuries. FSU fans can lecture me about having too-high expectations, but nobody was saying that before the season started.