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2015 Mississippi State advanced statistical profile

Updated on 8/20/2016

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2015 | 2016

Mississippi State Bulldogs (SEC West)

2015 Schedule & Results
Record: 9-4 | Second-order wins (diff.): 8.4 (-0.6) | S&P+ Rk: 16
Date Opponent Opp. S&P+ Rk Score W-L Win
Expectancy
Adj. Scoring
Margin
Percentile
Performance
Off.
Percentile
Def.
Percentile
5-Sep at Southern Miss 58 34-16 W 84% 8.0 92% 69% 90%
12-Sep LSU 9 19-21 L 8% -11.4 76% 35% 50%
19-Sep Northwestern State N/A 62-13 W 100% 45.7 81% 91% 30%
26-Sep at Auburn 35 17-9 W 91% 10.7 92% 71% 75%
3-Oct at Texas A&M 42 17-30 L 1% -17.6 43% 36% 24%
10-Oct Troy 90 45-17 W 100% 33.0 87% 80% 93%
17-Oct Louisiana Tech 54 45-20 W 92% 11.2 89% 92% 72%
24-Oct Kentucky 95 42-16 W 100% 26.1 84% 96% 55%
5-Nov at Missouri 85 31-13 W 99% 19.1 82% 82% 69%
14-Nov Alabama 1 6-31 L 0% -22.2 24% 49% 38%
21-Nov at Arkansas 15 51-50 W 63% 2.6 66% 85% 47%
28-Nov Ole Miss 5 27-38 L 3% -15.5 36% 64% 45%
30-Dec vs. NC State 36 51-28 W 97% 14.8 85% 92% 58%
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
S&P+ 39.2 16 24.2 40
Points Per Game 34.4 33 23.2 36
Five Factors
Offense Defense
Category Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 1.27 63 1.19 29 1.27
EFFICIENCY Success Rate 46.2% 20 42.6% 77 40.3%
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 29.6 74 28.3 39 29.9
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 5.45 8 4.38 40 4.67
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED -5.54 111 Turnover Luck (PPG):
+0.59
ACTUAL -4 92
Rushing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Rushing S&P+ 109.1 37 104.8 50 100.0
Rushing Success Rate 44.2% 48 42.7% 76 42.3%
Rushing IsoPPP 0.99 101 1.01 43 1.08
Adj. Line Yards 111.9 17 108 39 100.0
Opportunity Rate 40.4% 45 41.9% 103 38.9%
Power Success Rate 71.4% 35 56.0% 18 66.3%
Stuff Rate 20.2% 83 22.4% 36 19.6%

Individual Rushing Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Fumbles
(Lost)
Dak Prescott QB 6'2, 230 SR 131 780 10 6.0 5.9 40.5% 9 (4)
Brandon Holloway RB 5'8, 160 JR 93 413 0 4.4 3.4 38.7% 3 (2)
Ashton Shumpert RB 6'2, 218 JR 59 228 1 3.9 2.9 33.9% 2 (2)
Aeris Williams RB 6'1, 205 FR 40 206 3 5.2 3.7 47.5% 1 (1)
Nick Fitzgerald QB 6'5, 227 FR 23 127 3 5.5 5.1 43.5% 1 (0)
Dontavian Lee RB 6'1, 227 FR 22 137 0 6.2 6.2 40.9% 0 (0)
Malik Dear WR 5'9, 220 FR 11 110 1 10.0 14.9 45.5% 0 (0)
Gabe Myles WR 6'0, 192 SO 7 11 1 1.6 2.7 28.6% 0 (0)
Elijah Staley QB 6'6, 248 FR 3 18 0 6.0 2.5 66.7% 0 (0)
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Passing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing S&P+ 125.8 12 107.0 43 100.0
Passing Success Rate 47.6% 11 42.6% 86 40.3%
Passing IsoPPP 1.45 79 1.36 30 1.49
Adj. Sack Rate 104.4 56 116.4 38 100

Individual Passing Stats

Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Dak Prescott 6'2, 230 SR 316 477 3793 29 5 66.2% 32 6.3% 7.1
Nick Fitzgerald 6'5, 227 FR 11 14 235 3 0 78.6% 0 0.0% 16.8
Elijah Staley 6'6, 248 FR 3 5 51 1 0 60.0% 0 0.0% 10.2

Individual Receiving Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate Success Rate Target
Rate
Fred Ross WR 6'2, 207 JR 121 88 1007 5 11.4 8.3 72.7% 54.5% 24.8%
De'Runnya Wilson WR 6'5, 215 JR 98 60 918 10 15.3 9.4 61.2% 58.2% 20.1%
Brandon Holloway RB 5'8, 160 JR 43 33 396 5 12.0 9.2 76.7% 41.9% 8.8%
Fred Brown WR 6'1, 196 JR 42 27 412 3 15.3 9.8 64.3% 59.5% 8.6%
Malik Dear WR 5'9, 220 FR 31 23 226 2 9.8 7.3 74.2% 64.5% 6.4%
Donald Gray WR 5'10, 193 SO 30 21 386 2 18.4 12.9 70.0% 56.7% 6.2%
Gus Walley TE 6'4, 242 JR 25 19 146 1 7.7 5.8 76.0% 48.0% 5.1%
Ashton Shumpert RB 6'2, 218 JR 21 13 109 0 8.4 5.2 61.9% 33.3% 4.3%
Gabe Myles WR 6'0, 192 SO 19 12 175 2 14.6 9.2 63.2% 31.6% 3.9%
Darrion Hutcherson TE 6'7, 260 SR 19 16 164 1 10.3 8.6 84.2% 52.6% 3.9%
Joe Morrow WR 6'4, 202 SR 13 6 100 1 16.7 7.7 46.2% 46.2% 2.7%
Aeris Williams RB 6'1, 205 FR 8 6 18 0 3.0 2.3 75.0% 25.0% 1.6%
Justin Johnson WR 6'3, 229 FR 7 5 41 1 8.2 5.9 71.4% 71.4% 1.4%
Jesse Jackson WR 6'2, 210 FR 3 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%
Dontavian Lee RB 6'1, 227 FR 2 2 15 0 7.5 7.5 100.0% 50.0% 0.4%
Jamoral Graham DB 5'10, 173 SO 1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Standard Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Standard Downs S&P+ 116.0 16 102.4 55 100.0
Standard Downs Success Rate 51.7% 18 49.5% 98 46.5%
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.10 70 1.04 39 1.11
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.91 62 2.86 64 2.90
SD Sack Rate 5.6% 78 6.7% 18 5.0%
Passing Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing Downs S&P+ 126.4 13 116.0 23 100.0
Passing Downs Success Rate 33.7% 40 28.1% 38 30.7%
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.85 43 1.75 65 1.77
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.44 45 2.82 33 3.20
PD Sack Rate 7.4% 64 7.0% 74 7.5%
Situational
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk
Q1 S&P+ 129.7 7 109.5 37
Q2 S&P+ 124.5 13 108.6 49
Q3 S&P+ 114.3 30 105.0 50
Q4 S&P+ 138.4 1 105.5 48
1st Down S&P+ 118.4 18 106.7 39
2nd Down S&P+ 139.2 3 105.1 54
3rd Down S&P+ 119.6 18 112.4 34
Offensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 44.1% 127 60.4%
Pass Downs Run Rate 32.9% 60 34.0%
Adj. Pace -1.2 71 +0.0
% of Solo Tackles 67.3% 114 74.9%
Defensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 57.9% 88 60.3%
Pass. Downs Run Rate 33.6% 69 33.9%
Overall Havoc Rate 17.9% 33 16.0%
DL Havoc Rate 6.4% 33 5.1%
LB Havoc Rate 4.9% 48 4.5%
DB Havoc Rate 6.5% 57 6.3%
PD to INC 40.7% 7 32.8%
Individual Defensive Stats
Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Richie Brown LB 6'2, 245 JR 80.0 10.2% 13.0 6.5 1 2 0 0
Beniquez Brown LB 6'1, 238 JR 73.5 9.4% 11.0 4.0 1 2 0 0
Kivon Coman DB 6'3, 196 JR 57.5 7.3% 4.0 0.5 1 7 0 0
Brandon Bryant DB 5'11, 205 FR 54.5 6.9% 2.0 1.5 3 3 1 0
J.T. Gray LB 6'0, 196 SO 46.0 5.9% 3.5 1.5 0 0 0 0
A.J. Jefferson DL 6'3, 277 JR 37.0 4.7% 13.5 5.0 0 3 1 0
Tolando Cleveland DB 6'0, 190 JR 34.5 4.4% 4.5 1.0 0 3 1 0
Gerri Green LB 6'4, 243 FR 34.5 4.4% 2.5 0.0 2 1 0 0
Zach Jackson LB 6'2, 212 SR 32.0 4.1% 4.0 1.0 0 2 0 0
Taveze Calhoun DB 6'1, 180 SR 31.5 4.0% 6.5 0.0 2 8 0 0
Chris Jones DL 6'6, 308 JR 30.0 3.8% 7.5 2.5 0 4 0 0
Deontay Evans DB 5'10, 204 JR 26.5 3.4% 0.0 0.0 0 2 0 0
Ryan Brown DL 6'6, 266 SR 26.0 3.3% 8.0 2.5 0 5 0 0
Will Redmond DB 6'0, 186 SR 21.5 2.7% 0.0 0.0 2 1 0 0
Johnathan Calvin DL 6'3, 263 JR 19.5 2.5% 5.5 1.5 0 0 0 0
Jamoral Graham DB 5'10, 173 SO 19.5 2.5% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Jamal Peters DB 6'2, 206 FR 18.5 2.4% 1.5 1.0 0 2 0 0
Kendrick Market DB 5'10, 196 SR 18.0 2.3% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Nick James DL 6'5, 325 JR 17.5 2.2% 3.0 0.0 0 0 1 0
Nelson Adams DL 6'3, 310 JR 15.5 2.0% 1.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Mark McLaurin DB 6'2, 210 FR 15.0 1.9% 0.0 0.0 0 3 0 0
Cedric Jiles DB 5'10, 182 JR 11.5 1.5% 0.0 0.0 0 4 0 0
Will Coleman DL 6'5, 250 JR 11.0 1.4% 2.5 0.0 0 1 0 0
DeAndre Ward LB 6'1, 217 JR 11.0 1.4% 1.0 0.5 0 0 0 0
Torrey Dale DL 6'6, 252 JR 7.5 1.0% 0.5 0.0 0 1 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Special Teams

Rating Rank
Special Teams S&P+ 0.9 34
Category Rate Rank
FG Value (per kick) 0.23 39
Punt Success Rate 54.7% 69
Kickoff Success Rate 77.6% 38
Punt Return Success Rate 52.6% 51
Kick Return Success Rate 47.2% 59
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Westin Graves 6'0, 163 SO 52-54 15-18 83.3%
Devon Bell 6'2, 190 SR 2-2 0-1 0.0%
Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Logan Cooke 6'5, 216 SO 44 42.2 7 20 15 79.5%
Devon Bell 6'2, 190 SR 9 41.1 1 4 2 66.7%
Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Devon Bell 6'2, 190 SR 80 62.1 33 41.3% 0 2 0 0
Logan Cooke 6'5, 216 SO 4 49.3 2 50.0% 0 0 0 0
Westin Graves 6'0, 163 SO 1 71.0 0 0.0% 0 0 1 0
Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Fred Ross 6'2, 207 JR 15 10.5 1 25 2 (2)
Donald Gray 5'10, 193 SO 1 21.0 0 0 0 (0)
Fred Brown 6'1, 196 JR 1 -2.0 0 0 1 (0)
Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Brandon Holloway 5'8, 160 JR 24 23.6 1 0 1 (1)
Malik Dear 5'9, 220 FR 5 19.8 0 0 0 (0)
Gabe Myles 6'0, 192 SO 2 22.0 0 0 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics