Updated on 1/13/2017
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2015 | 2016
Mississippi State Bulldogs (SEC West)
2016 Schedule & Results
| Record: 6-7 | Second-order wins (diff.): 6.6 (0.6) | S&P+ Rk: 56 | |||||||||
| Date | Opponent | Opp. S&P+ Rk | Score | W-L | Win Expectancy |
Adj. Scoring Margin |
Percentile Performance |
Off. Percentile |
Def. Percentile |
| 3-Sep | South Alabama | 93 | 20-21 | L | 57% | 1.4 | 55% | 54% | 52% |
| 10-Sep | South Carolina | 79 | 27-14 | W | 100% | 28.1 | 92% | 83% | 85% |
| 17-Sep | at LSU | 4 | 20-23 | L | 8% | -10.9 | 61% | 39% | 60% |
| 24-Sep | at Massachusetts | 117 | 47-35 | W | 89% | 9.5 | 62% | 81% | 28% |
| 8-Oct | Auburn | 13 | 14-38 | L | 0% | -27.7 | 23% | 30% | 34% |
| 14-Oct | at BYU | 37 | 21-28 | L | 39% | -2.2 | 62% | 41% | 76% |
| 22-Oct | at Kentucky | 67 | 38-40 | L | 36% | -2.8 | 49% | 60% | 33% |
| 29-Oct | Samford | N/A | 56-41 | W | 97% | 15.1 | 65% | 86% | 9% |
| 5-Nov | Texas A&M | 24 | 35-28 | W | 93% | 11.6 | 89% | 87% | 72% |
| 12-Nov | at Alabama | 1 | 3-51 | L | 0% | -47.8 | 21% | 22% | 4% |
| 19-Nov | Arkansas | 48 | 42-58 | L | 7% | -11.6 | 33% | 73% | 5% |
| 26-Nov | at Ole Miss | 27 | 55-20 | W | 100% | 23.4 | 95% | 97% | 66% |
| 26-Dec | vs. Miami-OH | 98 | 17-16 | W | 37% | -2.6 | 46% | 46% | 44% |
| Category | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk |
| S&P+ | 34.7 | 31 | 30.1 | 73 |
| Points Per Game | 30.4 | 56 | 31.8 | 93 |
Five Factors
| Offense | Defense | |||||
| Category | Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Nat'l Avg. | |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | IsoPPP | 1.32 | 45 | 1.39 | 117 | 1.27 |
| EFFICIENCY | Success Rate | 44.4% | 39 | 42.4% | 61 | 40.9% |
| FIELD POSITION | Avg. FP | 30.6 | 44 | 27.2 | 22 | 29.7 |
| FINISHING DRIVES | Pts. Per Trip in 40 | 4.29 | 85 | 4.54 | 70 | 4.47 |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED | -4.54 | 102 | Turnover Luck (PPG): +4.44 |
||
| ACTUAL | 7 | 24 | ||||
Rushing
| Offense | Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Nat'l Avg. | |
| Rushing S&P+ | 126.5 | 7 | 102.1 | 57 | 100.0 |
| Rushing Success Rate | 47.1% | 26 | 41.4% | 49 | 43.1% |
| Rushing IsoPPP | 1.24 | 18 | 1.22 | 114 | 1.08 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 118.6 | 9 | 103.4 | 51 | 100.0 |
| Opportunity Rate | 44.8% | 12 | 39.8% | 73 | 39.7% |
| Power Success Rate | 72.5% | 39 | 64.3% | 37 | 67.9% |
| Stuff Rate | 16.4% | 26 | 20.1% | 48 | 18.9% |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Opp. |
Opp. Rate |
Fumbles (Lost) |
| Nick Fitzgerald | QB | 6'5, 230 | SO | 181 | 1454 | 16 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 49.2% | 6 (3) |
| Aeris Williams | RB | 6'1, 217 | SO | 137 | 720 | 4 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 45.3% | 1 (0) |
| Ashton Shumpert | RB | 6'2, 218 | SR | 56 | 257 | 1 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 35.7% | 1 (0) |
| Brandon Holloway | RB | 5'8, 165 | SR | 50 | 226 | 1 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 38.0% | 0 (0) |
| Keith Mixon | WR | 5'8, 175 | FR | 25 | 106 | 0 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 36.0% | 0 (0) |
| Malik Dear | WR | 5'9, 220 | SO | 17 | 124 | 1 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 47.1% | 0 (0) |
| Damian Williams | QB | 6'1, 229 | JR | 16 | 123 | 1 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 56.3% | 2 (1) |
| Nick Gibson | RB | 5'11, 204 | FR | 9 | 57 | 0 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 44.4% | 0 (0) |
| Dontavian Lee | RB | 6'1, 230 | SO | 7 | 27 | 0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 42.9% | 0 (0) |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Passing
| Offense | Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Nat'l Avg. | |
| Passing S&P+ | 103.3 | 58 | 90.2 | 104 | 100.0 |
| Passing Success Rate | 41.0% | 62 | 43.4% | 89 | 40.9% |
| Passing IsoPPP | 1.43 | 79 | 1.54 | 100 | 1.49 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 171.5 | 12 | 76.4 | 103 | 100 |
Individual Passing Stats
| Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate |
Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Nick Fitzgerald | 6'5, 230 | SO | 196 | 361 | 2423 | 21 | 10 | 54.3% | 14 | 3.7% | 6.3 |
| Damian Williams | 6'1, 229 | JR | 31 | 47 | 272 | 2 | 0 | 66.0% | 3 | 6.0% | 5.0 |
| Nick Tiano | 6'4, 239 | FR | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 5.0 |
Individual Receiving Stats
| Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch |
Yds/ Target |
Catch Rate | Success Rate | Target Rate |
| Fred Ross | WR | 6'2, 205 | SR | 118 | 72 | 917 | 12 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 61.0% | 45.8% | 29.6% |
| Donald Gray | WR | 5'10, 204 | JR | 71 | 41 | 709 | 5 | 17.3 | 10.0 | 57.7% | 49.3% | 17.8% |
| Malik Dear | WR | 5'9, 220 | SO | 36 | 22 | 265 | 2 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 61.1% | 50.0% | 9.0% |
| Keith Mixon | WR | 5'8, 175 | FR | 32 | 20 | 228 | 2 | 11.4 | 7.1 | 62.5% | 43.8% | 8.0% |
| Gabe Myles | WR | 6'0, 195 | JR | 26 | 8 | 63 | 0 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 30.8% | 23.1% | 6.5% |
| Farrod Green | TE | 6'3, 232 | FR | 19 | 11 | 121 | 1 | 11.0 | 6.4 | 57.9% | 52.6% | 4.8% |
| Brandon Holloway | RB | 5'8, 165 | SR | 18 | 15 | 90 | 0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 83.3% | 44.4% | 4.5% |
| Justin Johnson | TE | 6'3, 239 | SO | 18 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 27.8% | 16.7% | 4.5% |
| Jordan Thomas | TE | 6'5, 295 | JR | 17 | 9 | 48 | 1 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 52.9% | 35.3% | 4.3% |
| Jamal Couch | WR | 6'4, 223 | FR | 15 | 8 | 113 | 0 | 14.1 | 7.5 | 53.3% | 46.7% | 3.8% |
| Aeris Williams | RB | 6'1, 217 | SO | 9 | 7 | 45 | 0 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 77.8% | 55.6% | 2.3% |
| Deddrick Thomas | WR | 5'9, 188 | FR | 8 | 5 | 44 | 1 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 62.5% | 62.5% | 2.0% |
| Ashton Shumpert | RB | 6'2, 218 | SR | 5 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 60.0% | 20.0% | 1.3% |
| Jesse Jackson | WR | 6'2, 211 | SO | 4 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 7.0 | 1.8 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| Dontavian Lee | RB | 6'1, 230 | SO | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| Nick Fitzgerald | QB | 6'5, 230 | SO | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.3% |
Standard Downs
| Offense | Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Nat'l Avg. | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 115.7 | 18 | 98.7 | 66 | 100.0 |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 50.0% | 37 | 45.9% | 48 | 47.3% |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.18 | 41 | 1.22 | 112 | 1.12 |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.33 | 16 | 2.88 | 55 | 2.98 |
| SD Sack Rate | 2.4% | 11 | 4.4% | 79 | 5.1% |
Passing Downs
| Offense | Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Nat'l Avg. | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 107.1 | 52 | 89.2 | 100 | 100.0 |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 30.1% | 78 | 34.9% | 108 | 31.1% |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.89 | 26 | 1.86 | 104 | 1.76 |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 4.13 | 6 | 3.70 | 110 | 3.24 |
| PD Sack Rate | 5.6% | 32 | 6.6% | 83 | 7.9% |
Situational
| Offense | Defense | |||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | |
| Q1 S&P+ | 111.4 | 40 | 100.7 | 65 |
| Q2 S&P+ | 113.0 | 39 | 94.5 | 87 |
| Q3 S&P+ | 122.7 | 17 | 93.0 | 93 |
| Q4 S&P+ | 106.4 | 48 | 96.9 | 77 |
| 1st Down S&P+ | 112.6 | 31 | 97.8 | 73 |
| 2nd Down S&P+ | 110.0 | 37 | 96.1 | 81 |
| 3rd Down S&P+ | 118.3 | 26 | 97.9 | 75 |
Offensive Footprint
| Team | Rk | Nat'l Average | |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 63.0% | 45 | 60.2% |
| Pass Downs Run Rate | 35.2% | 51 | 34.6% |
| Adj. Pace | +1.3 | 50 | +0.0 |
| % of Solo Tackles | 62.8% | 123 | 74.2% |
Defensive Footprint
| Team | Rk | Nat'l Average | |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 54.9% | 109 | 60.2% |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 34.9% | 63 | 34.5% |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 14.8% | 82 | 15.8% |
| DL Havoc Rate | 5.9% | 35 | 5.0% |
| LB Havoc Rate | 4.4% | 55 | 4.3% |
| DB Havoc Rate | 4.5% | 122 | 6.4% |
| PD to INC | 27.1% | 118 | 33.1% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF |
| Richie Brown | LB | 6'2, 240 | SR | 76.5 | 10.0% | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Leo Lewis | LB | 6'2, 230 | FR | 57.0 | 7.5% | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| J.T. Gray | LB | 6'0, 197 | JR | 53.5 | 7.0% | 8.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bryant | DB | 6'0, 215 | SO | 48.5 | 6.3% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Kivon Coman | DB | 6'3, 205 | SR | 44.0 | 5.8% | 5.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| DeAndre Ward | LB | 6'1, 219 | SR | 43.5 | 5.7% | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Mark McLaurin | DB | 6'2, 218 | SO | 39.5 | 5.2% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Johnathan Calvin | DL | 6'3, 272 | SR | 39.0 | 5.1% | 11.5 | 7.0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Gerri Green | LB | 6'4, 248 | SO | 30.5 | 4.0% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dezmond Harris | LB | 6'4, 236 | JR | 29.0 | 3.8% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Cedric Jiles | DB | 5'10, 186 | SR | 27.0 | 3.5% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jeffery Simmons | DL | 6'4, 310 | FR | 25.5 | 3.3% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Jamoral Graham | DB | 5'10, 183 | JR | 25.0 | 3.3% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Traver Jung | LB | 6'3, 229 | JR | 21.5 | 2.8% | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
| A.J. Jefferson | DL | 6'3, 280 | SR | 21.0 | 2.7% | 10.5 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lashard Durr | DB | 5'11, 197 | JR | 21.0 | 2.7% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Rayford | DB | 6'0, 199 | SO | 19.5 | 2.5% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nelson Adams | DL | 6'3, 305 | SR | 18.5 | 2.4% | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Cory Thomas | DL | 6'5, 313 | SO | 16.0 | 2.1% | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Torrey Dale | DL | 6'6, 277 | SR | 15.0 | 2.0% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jamal Peters | DB | 6'2, 217 | SO | 15.0 | 2.0% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Marquiss Spencer | DL | 6'3, 270 | FR | 13.0 | 1.7% | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick James | DL | 6'5, 320 | SR | 12.5 | 1.6% | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Braxton Hoyett | DL | 6'3, 305 | SO | 10.5 | 1.4% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fletcher Adams | DL | 6'2, 274 | FR | 10.0 | 1.3% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Special Teams
| Rating | Rank | |
| Special Teams S&P+ | -1.1 | 104 |
| Category | Rate | Rank |
| FG Value (per kick) | -0.40 | 117 |
| Punt Success Rate | 52.4% | 87 |
| Kickoff Success Rate | 72.2% | 71 |
| Punt Return Success Rate | 52.6% | 52 |
| Kick Return Success Rate | 50.0% | 34 |
| Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Westin Graves | 6'0, 163 | JR | 48-49 | 11-19 | 57.9% |
| Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Logan Cooke | 6'5, 224 | JR | 44 | 40.0 | 3 | 20 | 20 | 90.9% |
| Kody Schexnayder | 5'10, 185 | FR | 18 | 36.9 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 83.3% |
| Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches |
Onside Att |
Onside Success |
| Brad Wall | 5'8, 175 | FR | 32 | 62.1 | 10 | 31.3% | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Logan Cooke | 6'5, 224 | JR | 25 | 63.3 | 14 | 56.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Westin Graves | 6'0, 163 | JR | 15 | 58.4 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Fred Ross | 6'2, 205 | SR | 15 | 5.7 | 0 | 24 | 2 (0) |
| Donald Gray | 5'10, 204 | JR | 2 | 5.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 (0) |
| Keith Mixon | 5'8, 175 | FR | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Brandon Holloway | 5'8, 165 | SR | 16 | 23.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Keith Mixon | 5'8, 175 | FR | 11 | 25.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Malik Dear | 5'9, 220 | SO | 10 | 12.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics