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2016 Mississippi State advanced statistical profile

Updated on 1/13/2017

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2015 | 2016

Mississippi State Bulldogs (SEC West)

2016 Schedule & Results
Record: 6-7 | Second-order wins (diff.): 6.6 (0.6) | S&P+ Rk: 56
Date Opponent Opp. S&P+ Rk Score W-L Win
Expectancy
Adj. Scoring
Margin
Percentile
Performance
Off.
Percentile
Def.
Percentile
3-Sep South Alabama 93 20-21 L 57% 1.4 55% 54% 52%
10-Sep South Carolina 79 27-14 W 100% 28.1 92% 83% 85%
17-Sep at LSU 4 20-23 L 8% -10.9 61% 39% 60%
24-Sep at Massachusetts 117 47-35 W 89% 9.5 62% 81% 28%
8-Oct Auburn 13 14-38 L 0% -27.7 23% 30% 34%
14-Oct at BYU 37 21-28 L 39% -2.2 62% 41% 76%
22-Oct at Kentucky 67 38-40 L 36% -2.8 49% 60% 33%
29-Oct Samford N/A 56-41 W 97% 15.1 65% 86% 9%
5-Nov Texas A&M 24 35-28 W 93% 11.6 89% 87% 72%
12-Nov at Alabama 1 3-51 L 0% -47.8 21% 22% 4%
19-Nov Arkansas 48 42-58 L 7% -11.6 33% 73% 5%
26-Nov at Ole Miss 27 55-20 W 100% 23.4 95% 97% 66%
26-Dec vs. Miami-OH 98 17-16 W 37% -2.6 46% 46% 44%
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
S&P+ 34.7 31 30.1 73
Points Per Game 30.4 56 31.8 93
Five Factors
Offense Defense
Category Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 1.32 45 1.39 117 1.27
EFFICIENCY Success Rate 44.4% 39 42.4% 61 40.9%
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 30.6 44 27.2 22 29.7
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 4.29 85 4.54 70 4.47
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED -4.54 102 Turnover Luck (PPG):
+4.44
ACTUAL 7 24
Rushing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Rushing S&P+ 126.5 7 102.1 57 100.0
Rushing Success Rate 47.1% 26 41.4% 49 43.1%
Rushing IsoPPP 1.24 18 1.22 114 1.08
Adj. Line Yards 118.6 9 103.4 51 100.0
Opportunity Rate 44.8% 12 39.8% 73 39.7%
Power Success Rate 72.5% 39 64.3% 37 67.9%
Stuff Rate 16.4% 26 20.1% 48 18.9%

Individual Rushing Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Fumbles
(Lost)
Nick Fitzgerald QB 6'5, 230 SO 181 1454 16 8.0 8.7 49.2% 6 (3)
Aeris Williams RB 6'1, 217 SO 137 720 4 5.3 3.3 45.3% 1 (0)
Ashton Shumpert RB 6'2, 218 SR 56 257 1 4.6 3.8 35.7% 1 (0)
Brandon Holloway RB 5'8, 165 SR 50 226 1 4.5 4.1 38.0% 0 (0)
Keith Mixon WR 5'8, 175 FR 25 106 0 4.2 3.3 36.0% 0 (0)
Malik Dear WR 5'9, 220 SO 17 124 1 7.3 8.4 47.1% 0 (0)
Damian Williams QB 6'1, 229 JR 16 123 1 7.7 5.4 56.3% 2 (1)
Nick Gibson RB 5'11, 204 FR 9 57 0 6.3 3.1 44.4% 0 (0)
Dontavian Lee RB 6'1, 230 SO 7 27 0 3.9 1.3 42.9% 0 (0)
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Passing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing S&P+ 103.3 58 90.2 104 100.0
Passing Success Rate 41.0% 62 43.4% 89 40.9%
Passing IsoPPP 1.43 79 1.54 100 1.49
Adj. Sack Rate 171.5 12 76.4 103 100

Individual Passing Stats

Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Nick Fitzgerald 6'5, 230 SO 196 361 2423 21 10 54.3% 14 3.7% 6.3
Damian Williams 6'1, 229 JR 31 47 272 2 0 66.0% 3 6.0% 5.0
Nick Tiano 6'4, 239 FR 1 1 5 0 0 100.0% 0 0.0% 5.0

Individual Receiving Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate Success Rate Target
Rate
Fred Ross WR 6'2, 205 SR 118 72 917 12 12.7 7.8 61.0% 45.8% 29.6%
Donald Gray WR 5'10, 204 JR 71 41 709 5 17.3 10.0 57.7% 49.3% 17.8%
Malik Dear WR 5'9, 220 SO 36 22 265 2 12.1 7.4 61.1% 50.0% 9.0%
Keith Mixon WR 5'8, 175 FR 32 20 228 2 11.4 7.1 62.5% 43.8% 8.0%
Gabe Myles WR 6'0, 195 JR 26 8 63 0 7.9 2.4 30.8% 23.1% 6.5%
Farrod Green TE 6'3, 232 FR 19 11 121 1 11.0 6.4 57.9% 52.6% 4.8%
Brandon Holloway RB 5'8, 165 SR 18 15 90 0 6.0 5.0 83.3% 44.4% 4.5%
Justin Johnson TE 6'3, 239 SO 18 5 34 0 6.8 1.9 27.8% 16.7% 4.5%
Jordan Thomas TE 6'5, 295 JR 17 9 48 1 5.3 2.8 52.9% 35.3% 4.3%
Jamal Couch WR 6'4, 223 FR 15 8 113 0 14.1 7.5 53.3% 46.7% 3.8%
Aeris Williams RB 6'1, 217 SO 9 7 45 0 6.4 5.0 77.8% 55.6% 2.3%
Deddrick Thomas WR 5'9, 188 FR 8 5 44 1 8.8 5.5 62.5% 62.5% 2.0%
Ashton Shumpert RB 6'2, 218 SR 5 3 28 0 9.3 5.6 60.0% 20.0% 1.3%
Jesse Jackson WR 6'2, 211 SO 4 1 7 0 7.0 1.8 25.0% 0.0% 1.0%
Dontavian Lee RB 6'1, 230 SO 2 2 5 0 2.5 2.5 100.0% 0.0% 0.5%
Nick Fitzgerald QB 6'5, 230 SO 1 1 9 0 9.0 9.0 100.0% 100.0% 0.3%
Standard Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Standard Downs S&P+ 115.7 18 98.7 66 100.0
Standard Downs Success Rate 50.0% 37 45.9% 48 47.3%
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.18 41 1.22 112 1.12
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.33 16 2.88 55 2.98
SD Sack Rate 2.4% 11 4.4% 79 5.1%
Passing Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing Downs S&P+ 107.1 52 89.2 100 100.0
Passing Downs Success Rate 30.1% 78 34.9% 108 31.1%
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.89 26 1.86 104 1.76
PD Line Yards per Carry 4.13 6 3.70 110 3.24
PD Sack Rate 5.6% 32 6.6% 83 7.9%
Situational
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk
Q1 S&P+ 111.4 40 100.7 65
Q2 S&P+ 113.0 39 94.5 87
Q3 S&P+ 122.7 17 93.0 93
Q4 S&P+ 106.4 48 96.9 77
1st Down S&P+ 112.6 31 97.8 73
2nd Down S&P+ 110.0 37 96.1 81
3rd Down S&P+ 118.3 26 97.9 75
Offensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 63.0% 45 60.2%
Pass Downs Run Rate 35.2% 51 34.6%
Adj. Pace +1.3 50 +0.0
% of Solo Tackles 62.8% 123 74.2%
Defensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 54.9% 109 60.2%
Pass. Downs Run Rate 34.9% 63 34.5%
Overall Havoc Rate 14.8% 82 15.8%
DL Havoc Rate 5.9% 35 5.0%
LB Havoc Rate 4.4% 55 4.3%
DB Havoc Rate 4.5% 122 6.4%
PD to INC 27.1% 118 33.1%
Individual Defensive Stats
Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF
Richie Brown LB 6'2, 240 SR 76.5 10.0% 4.0 1.5 0 2 1
Leo Lewis LB 6'2, 230 FR 57.0 7.5% 4.5 1.0 0 1 0
J.T. Gray LB 6'0, 197 JR 53.5 7.0% 8.0 1.0 0 0 0
Brandon Bryant DB 6'0, 215 SO 48.5 6.3% 1.0 0.0 1 2 0
Kivon Coman DB 6'3, 205 SR 44.0 5.8% 5.0 0.0 2 2 0
DeAndre Ward LB 6'1, 219 SR 43.5 5.7% 4.0 1.0 1 1 0
Mark McLaurin DB 6'2, 218 SO 39.5 5.2% 2.0 1.0 2 5 0
Johnathan Calvin DL 6'3, 272 SR 39.0 5.1% 11.5 7.0 1 1 2
Gerri Green LB 6'4, 248 SO 30.5 4.0% 0.5 0.0 0 1 0
Dezmond Harris LB 6'4, 236 JR 29.0 3.8% 2.5 0.0 0 0 2
Cedric Jiles DB 5'10, 186 SR 27.0 3.5% 1.0 0.0 1 1 0
Jeffery Simmons DL 6'4, 310 FR 25.5 3.3% 2.5 0.0 0 2 1
Jamoral Graham DB 5'10, 183 JR 25.0 3.3% 0.5 0.0 3 5 0
Traver Jung LB 6'3, 229 JR 21.5 2.8% 3.5 2.5 0 5 1
A.J. Jefferson DL 6'3, 280 SR 21.0 2.7% 10.5 4.0 0 0 1
Lashard Durr DB 5'11, 197 JR 21.0 2.7% 0.5 0.0 0 1 0
Chris Rayford DB 6'0, 199 SO 19.5 2.5% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0
Nelson Adams DL 6'3, 305 SR 18.5 2.4% 2.5 2.5 0 2 0
Cory Thomas DL 6'5, 313 SO 16.0 2.1% 5.5 0.0 0 1 1
Torrey Dale DL 6'6, 277 SR 15.0 2.0% 1.0 0.0 0 0 1
Jamal Peters DB 6'2, 217 SO 15.0 2.0% 1.0 0.0 2 2 2
Marquiss Spencer DL 6'3, 270 FR 13.0 1.7% 3.0 1.0 0 0 0
Nick James DL 6'5, 320 SR 12.5 1.6% 3.0 1.5 0 1 0
Braxton Hoyett DL 6'3, 305 SO 10.5 1.4% 2.0 0.0 0 0 0
Fletcher Adams DL 6'2, 274 FR 10.0 1.3% 0.5 0.0 0 0 0
Special Teams

Rating Rank
Special Teams S&P+ -1.1 104
Category Rate Rank
FG Value (per kick) -0.40 117
Punt Success Rate 52.4% 87
Kickoff Success Rate 72.2% 71
Punt Return Success Rate 52.6% 52
Kick Return Success Rate 50.0% 34
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Westin Graves 6'0, 163 JR 48-49 11-19 57.9%
Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Logan Cooke 6'5, 224 JR 44 40.0 3 20 20 90.9%
Kody Schexnayder 5'10, 185 FR 18 36.9 1 11 4 83.3%
Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Brad Wall 5'8, 175 FR 32 62.1 10 31.3% 1 2 1 0
Logan Cooke 6'5, 224 JR 25 63.3 14 56.0% 0 1 0 0
Westin Graves 6'0, 163 JR 15 58.4 0 0.0% 1 1 1 1
Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Fred Ross 6'2, 205 SR 15 5.7 0 24 2 (0)
Donald Gray 5'10, 204 JR 2 5.0 0 1 0 (0)
Keith Mixon 5'8, 175 FR 1 0.0 0 0 0 (0)
Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Brandon Holloway 5'8, 165 SR 16 23.1 0 0 0 (0)
Keith Mixon 5'8, 175 FR 11 25.2 0 0 0 (0)
Malik Dear 5'9, 220 SO 10 12.6 0 0 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics