clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

2015 Air Force advanced statistical profile

Updated on 8/21/2016

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Back to the index page.

Got position corrections? Note them here.

Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

2015 | 2016

Air Force Falcons (MWC Mountain)

2015 Schedule & Results
Record: 8-6 | Second-order wins (diff.): 8.7 (0.7) | S&P+ Rk: 52
Date Opponent Opp. S&P+ Rk Score W-L Win
Expectancy
Adj. Scoring
Margin
Percentile
Performance
Off.
Percentile
Def.
Percentile
5-Sep Morgan State N/A 63-7 W 100% 47.9 79% 85% 49%
12-Sep San Jose State 89 37-16 W 85% 8.2 86% 72% 58%
19-Sep at Michigan State 13 21-35 L 35% -3.0 87% 71% 41%
3-Oct at Navy 20 11-33 L 2% -16.3 74% 23% 75%
10-Oct Wyoming 114 31-17 W 93% 12.0 29% 12% 72%
17-Oct at Colorado State 81 23-38 L 1% -19.1 15% 46% 20%
24-Oct Fresno State 100 42-14 W 100% 21.0 65% 83% 43%
31-Oct at Hawaii 118 58-7 W 100% 53.2 87% 89% 93%
7-Nov Army 123 20-3 W 100% 25.7 84% 49% 86%
14-Nov Utah State 46 35-28 W 83% 7.8 63% 95% 27%
20-Nov at Boise State 41 37-30 W 98% 16.8 88% 89% 78%
28-Nov at New Mexico 101 35-47 L 17% -7.5 14% 63% 14%
5-Dec at San Diego State 45 24-27 L 52% 0.4 67% 88% 45%
29-Dec vs. California 34 36-55 L 2% -16.3 9% 47% 19%
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
S&P+ 34.6 34 28.7 71
Points Per Game 33.8 39 25.5 48
Five Factors
Offense Defense
Category Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 1.32 37 1.64 128 1.27
EFFICIENCY Success Rate 46.0% 22 35.2% 13 40.3%
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 29.1 88 29.3 58 29.9
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 5.31 19 4.82 83 4.67
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED 0.26 67 Turnover Luck (PPG):
-1.88
ACTUAL -5 98
Rushing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Rushing S&P+ 115.5 19 105.5 47 100.0
Rushing Success Rate 47.2% 22 32.6% 4 42.3%
Rushing IsoPPP 1.10 47 1.52 128 1.08
Adj. Line Yards 114.3 13 116.4 12 100.0
Opportunity Rate 42.1% 27 28.4% 2 38.9%
Power Success Rate 75.6% 20 67.4% 77 66.3%
Stuff Rate 14.2% 4 22.9% 30 19.6%

Individual Rushing Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Fumbles
(Lost)
Jacobi Owens RB 6'0, 202 JR 207 1096 7 5.3 4.8 39.6% 4 (2)
Karson Roberts QB 6'0, 195 SR 165 752 10 4.6 4.0 41.8% 7 (4)
D.J. Johnson RB 5'10, 235 JR 82 425 6 5.2 3.6 40.2% 2 (2)
Benton Washington RB 5'11, 205 SO 55 321 4 5.8 3.4 52.7% 1 (0)
Timothy McVey RB 5'9, 190 SO 51 435 9 8.5 11.9 39.2% 1 (0)
Bryan Driskell RB 5'8, 190 JR 50 363 0 7.3 7.1 48.0% 0 (0)
Shayne Davern RB 6'0, 240 JR 46 323 4 7.0 9.6 34.8% 0 (0)
Garrett Brown WR 5'9, 180 SR 35 259 1 7.4 7.6 51.4% 1 (1)
Tyler Williams WR 5'10, 185 SO 31 182 1 5.9 3.7 61.3% 1 (0)
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Passing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing S&P+ 130.0 7 95.8 79 100.0
Passing Success Rate 40.2% 70 38.1% 40 40.3%
Passing IsoPPP 2.51 1 1.75 121 1.49
Adj. Sack Rate 448.3 2 133.9 19 100

Individual Passing Stats

Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Karson Roberts 6'0, 195 SR 77 148 1595 11 11 52.0% 3 2.0% 10.5
Nate Romine 5'11, 195 JR 7 18 143 2 1 38.9% 0 0.0% 7.9

Individual Receiving Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate Success Rate Target
Rate
Jalen Robinette WR 6'4, 215 JR 58 26 641 5 24.7 11.1 44.8% 43.1% 37.7%
Garrett Brown WR 5'9, 180 SR 40 27 557 1 20.6 13.9 67.5% 52.5% 26.0%
Garrett Griffin TE 6'4, 240 SR 19 12 208 3 17.3 11.0 63.2% 57.9% 12.3%
Timothy McVey RB 5'9, 190 SO 12 10 307 4 30.7 25.6 83.3% 58.3% 7.8%
Ryan Reffitt TE 6'5, 230 SO 8 2 14 0 7.0 1.8 25.0% 12.5% 5.2%
Bryan Driskell RB 5'8, 190 JR 4 2 11 0 5.5 2.8 50.0% 25.0% 2.6%
Alex Ludowig WR 5'11, 170 SR 3 2 45 1 22.5 15.0 66.7% 66.7% 1.9%
Tyler Williams WR 5'10, 185 SO 3 2 10 0 5.0 3.3 66.7% 0.0% 1.9%
Benton Washington RB 5'11, 205 SO 3 2 1 0 0.5 0.3 66.7% 0.0% 1.9%
Shayne Davern RB 6'0, 240 JR 1 1 33 0 33.0 33.0 100.0% 100.0% 0.6%
Karson Roberts QB 6'0, 195 SR 1 1 20 1 20.0 20.0 100.0% 100.0% 0.6%
Jacobi Owens RB 6'0, 202 JR 1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%
Andrew Smith 0 , 0 1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%
Standard Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Standard Downs S&P+ 114.7 21 97.4 78 100.0
Standard Downs Success Rate 51.1% 22 39.3% 7 46.5%
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.20 26 1.52 128 1.11
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.29 15 2.48 16 2.90
SD Sack Rate 2.7% 22 5.0% 65 5.0%
Passing Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing Downs S&P+ 99.9 71 101.8 65 100.0
Passing Downs Success Rate 30.4% 65 28.1% 37 30.7%
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.89 32 1.92 110 1.77
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.56 33 2.59 11 3.20
PD Sack Rate 0.0% 1 11.1% 16 7.5%
Situational
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk
Q1 S&P+ 102.4 65 85.3 112
Q2 S&P+ 109.8 40 122.5 13
Q3 S&P+ 121.9 24 104.1 55
Q4 S&P+ 117.9 16 110.7 31
1st Down S&P+ 120.1 15 104.5 46
2nd Down S&P+ 106.2 53 105.6 52
3rd Down S&P+ 112.3 37 103.9 56
Offensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 87.3% 4 60.4%
Pass Downs Run Rate 67.5% 3 34.0%
Adj. Pace +4.3 24 +0.0
% of Solo Tackles 70.0% 104 74.9%
Defensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 64.3% 29 60.3%
Pass. Downs Run Rate 34.2% 65 33.9%
Overall Havoc Rate 17.7% 37 16.0%
DL Havoc Rate 4.2% 82 5.1%
LB Havoc Rate 5.9% 24 4.5%
DB Havoc Rate 7.5% 26 6.3%
PD to INC 30.8% 78 32.8%
Individual Defensive Stats
Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Roland Ladipo DB 5'10, 185 JR 65.5 10.0% 4.5 1.0 3 17 1 0
Weston Steelhammer DB 6'2, 200 JR 63.0 9.6% 10.5 1.0 5 7 0 0
Alex Hansen DL 6'3, 260 SR 53.0 8.1% 15.5 7.5 0 3 1 0
Brodie Hicks DB 6'2, 200 JR 52.5 8.0% 1.0 0.0 2 2 0 0
Grant Ross LB 6'0, 220 SO 45.5 7.0% 5.0 1.5 0 0 1 0
Claude Alexander III LB 6'1, 225 JR 45.0 6.9% 10.5 4.0 0 0 0 0
D.J. Dunn, Jr. LB 6'3, 240 JR 38.5 5.9% 12.5 6.0 0 2 0 0
Jesse Washington DB 6'0, 185 JR 33.5 5.1% 2.0 1.0 0 5 1 0
Patrick Healy LB 6'1, 225 JR 29.5 4.5% 1.5 1.0 0 0 0 0
Lochlin Deeks DL 6'4, 265 JR 23.0 3.5% 5.5 1.0 0 0 0 0
Connor Healy LB 6'0, 225 SR 23.0 3.5% 1.5 1.5 0 1 0 0
Jack Flor LB 6'2, 225 SO 23.0 3.5% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Jacob Onyechi LB 6'1, 195 JR 21.5 3.3% 4.0 0.0 0 2 0 0
Ryan Watson LB 6'3, 230 JR 17.5 2.7% 4.5 3.0 0 0 1 0
Hayes Linn DB 6'0, 185 JR 16.5 2.5% 0.0 0.0 0 2 0 0
Dexter Walker LB 6'0, 210 SR 15.5 2.4% 2.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Santo Coppola DL 6'4, 285 SO 13.0 2.0% 4.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Kalon Baker DB 6'0, 190 SR 12.5 1.9% 0.0 0.0 1 1 0 0
Samuel Byers DL 6'5, 275 JR 10.0 1.5% 3.0 2.0 0 0 0 0
David Harris DL 6'0, 269 JR 8.0 1.2% 2.5 2.0 0 1 0 0
Marquis Griffin DB 5'11, 185 SO 6.5 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Jalen Lacy DL 6'4, 250 JR 4.5 0.7% 1.0 0.5 0 0 0 0
Tyler Weaver DB 6'1, 210 JR 4.0 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Timothy McVey RB 5'9, 190 SO 3.5 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Karson Roberts QB 6'0, 195 SR 3.0 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Special Teams

Rating Rank
Special Teams S&P+ 0.8 36
Category Rate Rank
FG Value (per kick) 0.44 10
Punt Success Rate 42.4% 121
Kickoff Success Rate 75.6% 46
Punt Return Success Rate 26.7% 124
Kick Return Success Rate 59.4% 14
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Luke Strebel 5'10, 170 SO 37-37 10-11 90.9%
Drew Oehrle 6'0, 175 SR 18-20 3-5 60.0%
Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Steve Brosy , 0 33 37.0 3 12 11 69.7%
Luke Strebel 5'10, 170 SO 13 40.0 0 3 1 30.8%
Brett Dunn 5'10, 190 SR 13 41.5 0 7 3 76.9%
Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Luke Strebel 5'10, 170 SO 42 62.3 24 57.1% 0 3 1 0
Drew Oehrle 6'0, 175 SR 38 63.5 23 60.5% 0 0 1 0
Daniel Zivney , 0 3 64.3 2 66.7% 0 0 0 0
Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Garrett Brown 5'9, 180 SR 15 9.3 1 21 0 (0)
Andrew Smith , 0 0 0.0 0 1 0 (0)
Alex Ludowig 5'11, 170 SR 0 0.0 0 1 0 (0)
Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Tyler Williams 5'10, 185 SO 15 22.2 0 0 0 (0)
Bryan Driskell 5'8, 190 JR 8 19.5 0 0 0 (0)
Timothy McVey 5'9, 190 SO 5 27.8 0 0 1 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics