Updated on 8/21/2016
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2015 | 2016
Air Force Falcons (MWC Mountain)
2015 Schedule & Results
| Record: 8-6 | Second-order wins (diff.): 8.7 (0.7) | S&P+ Rk: 52 | |||||||||
| Date | Opponent | Opp. S&P+ Rk | Score | W-L | Win Expectancy |
Adj. Scoring Margin |
Percentile Performance |
Off. Percentile |
Def. Percentile |
| 5-Sep | Morgan State | N/A | 63-7 | W | 100% | 47.9 | 79% | 85% | 49% |
| 12-Sep | San Jose State | 89 | 37-16 | W | 85% | 8.2 | 86% | 72% | 58% |
| 19-Sep | at Michigan State | 13 | 21-35 | L | 35% | -3.0 | 87% | 71% | 41% |
| 3-Oct | at Navy | 20 | 11-33 | L | 2% | -16.3 | 74% | 23% | 75% |
| 10-Oct | Wyoming | 114 | 31-17 | W | 93% | 12.0 | 29% | 12% | 72% |
| 17-Oct | at Colorado State | 81 | 23-38 | L | 1% | -19.1 | 15% | 46% | 20% |
| 24-Oct | Fresno State | 100 | 42-14 | W | 100% | 21.0 | 65% | 83% | 43% |
| 31-Oct | at Hawaii | 118 | 58-7 | W | 100% | 53.2 | 87% | 89% | 93% |
| 7-Nov | Army | 123 | 20-3 | W | 100% | 25.7 | 84% | 49% | 86% |
| 14-Nov | Utah State | 46 | 35-28 | W | 83% | 7.8 | 63% | 95% | 27% |
| 20-Nov | at Boise State | 41 | 37-30 | W | 98% | 16.8 | 88% | 89% | 78% |
| 28-Nov | at New Mexico | 101 | 35-47 | L | 17% | -7.5 | 14% | 63% | 14% |
| 5-Dec | at San Diego State | 45 | 24-27 | L | 52% | 0.4 | 67% | 88% | 45% |
| 29-Dec | vs. California | 34 | 36-55 | L | 2% | -16.3 | 9% | 47% | 19% |
| Category | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk |
| S&P+ | 34.6 | 34 | 28.7 | 71 |
| Points Per Game | 33.8 | 39 | 25.5 | 48 |
Five Factors
| Offense | Defense | |||||
| Category | Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Nat'l Avg. | |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | IsoPPP | 1.32 | 37 | 1.64 | 128 | 1.27 |
| EFFICIENCY | Success Rate | 46.0% | 22 | 35.2% | 13 | 40.3% |
| FIELD POSITION | Avg. FP | 29.1 | 88 | 29.3 | 58 | 29.9 |
| FINISHING DRIVES | Pts. Per Trip in 40 | 5.31 | 19 | 4.82 | 83 | 4.67 |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED | 0.26 | 67 | Turnover Luck (PPG): -1.88 |
||
| ACTUAL | -5 | 98 | ||||
Rushing
| Offense | Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Nat'l Avg. | |
| Rushing S&P+ | 115.5 | 19 | 105.5 | 47 | 100.0 |
| Rushing Success Rate | 47.2% | 22 | 32.6% | 4 | 42.3% |
| Rushing IsoPPP | 1.10 | 47 | 1.52 | 128 | 1.08 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 114.3 | 13 | 116.4 | 12 | 100.0 |
| Opportunity Rate | 42.1% | 27 | 28.4% | 2 | 38.9% |
| Power Success Rate | 75.6% | 20 | 67.4% | 77 | 66.3% |
| Stuff Rate | 14.2% | 4 | 22.9% | 30 | 19.6% |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Opp. |
Opp. Rate |
Fumbles (Lost) |
| Jacobi Owens | RB | 6'0, 202 | JR | 207 | 1096 | 7 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 39.6% | 4 (2) |
| Karson Roberts | QB | 6'0, 195 | SR | 165 | 752 | 10 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 41.8% | 7 (4) |
| D.J. Johnson | RB | 5'10, 235 | JR | 82 | 425 | 6 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 40.2% | 2 (2) |
| Benton Washington | RB | 5'11, 205 | SO | 55 | 321 | 4 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 52.7% | 1 (0) |
| Timothy McVey | RB | 5'9, 190 | SO | 51 | 435 | 9 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 39.2% | 1 (0) |
| Bryan Driskell | RB | 5'8, 190 | JR | 50 | 363 | 0 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 48.0% | 0 (0) |
| Shayne Davern | RB | 6'0, 240 | JR | 46 | 323 | 4 | 7.0 | 9.6 | 34.8% | 0 (0) |
| Garrett Brown | WR | 5'9, 180 | SR | 35 | 259 | 1 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 51.4% | 1 (1) |
| Tyler Williams | WR | 5'10, 185 | SO | 31 | 182 | 1 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 61.3% | 1 (0) |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Passing
| Offense | Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Nat'l Avg. | |
| Passing S&P+ | 130.0 | 7 | 95.8 | 79 | 100.0 |
| Passing Success Rate | 40.2% | 70 | 38.1% | 40 | 40.3% |
| Passing IsoPPP | 2.51 | 1 | 1.75 | 121 | 1.49 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 448.3 | 2 | 133.9 | 19 | 100 |
Individual Passing Stats
| Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate |
Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Karson Roberts | 6'0, 195 | SR | 77 | 148 | 1595 | 11 | 11 | 52.0% | 3 | 2.0% | 10.5 |
| Nate Romine | 5'11, 195 | JR | 7 | 18 | 143 | 2 | 1 | 38.9% | 0 | 0.0% | 7.9 |
Individual Receiving Stats
| Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch |
Yds/ Target |
Catch Rate | Success Rate | Target Rate |
| Jalen Robinette | WR | 6'4, 215 | JR | 58 | 26 | 641 | 5 | 24.7 | 11.1 | 44.8% | 43.1% | 37.7% |
| Garrett Brown | WR | 5'9, 180 | SR | 40 | 27 | 557 | 1 | 20.6 | 13.9 | 67.5% | 52.5% | 26.0% |
| Garrett Griffin | TE | 6'4, 240 | SR | 19 | 12 | 208 | 3 | 17.3 | 11.0 | 63.2% | 57.9% | 12.3% |
| Timothy McVey | RB | 5'9, 190 | SO | 12 | 10 | 307 | 4 | 30.7 | 25.6 | 83.3% | 58.3% | 7.8% |
| Ryan Reffitt | TE | 6'5, 230 | SO | 8 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 7.0 | 1.8 | 25.0% | 12.5% | 5.2% |
| Bryan Driskell | RB | 5'8, 190 | JR | 4 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 2.6% |
| Alex Ludowig | WR | 5'11, 170 | SR | 3 | 2 | 45 | 1 | 22.5 | 15.0 | 66.7% | 66.7% | 1.9% |
| Tyler Williams | WR | 5'10, 185 | SO | 3 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 1.9% |
| Benton Washington | RB | 5'11, 205 | SO | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 1.9% |
| Shayne Davern | RB | 6'0, 240 | JR | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 | 33.0 | 33.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.6% |
| Karson Roberts | QB | 6'0, 195 | SR | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.6% |
| Jacobi Owens | RB | 6'0, 202 | JR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| Andrew Smith | 0 | , | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% |
Standard Downs
| Offense | Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Nat'l Avg. | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 114.7 | 21 | 97.4 | 78 | 100.0 |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 51.1% | 22 | 39.3% | 7 | 46.5% |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.20 | 26 | 1.52 | 128 | 1.11 |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.29 | 15 | 2.48 | 16 | 2.90 |
| SD Sack Rate | 2.7% | 22 | 5.0% | 65 | 5.0% |
Passing Downs
| Offense | Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Nat'l Avg. | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 99.9 | 71 | 101.8 | 65 | 100.0 |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 30.4% | 65 | 28.1% | 37 | 30.7% |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.89 | 32 | 1.92 | 110 | 1.77 |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.56 | 33 | 2.59 | 11 | 3.20 |
| PD Sack Rate | 0.0% | 1 | 11.1% | 16 | 7.5% |
Situational
| Offense | Defense | |||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | |
| Q1 S&P+ | 102.4 | 65 | 85.3 | 112 |
| Q2 S&P+ | 109.8 | 40 | 122.5 | 13 |
| Q3 S&P+ | 121.9 | 24 | 104.1 | 55 |
| Q4 S&P+ | 117.9 | 16 | 110.7 | 31 |
| 1st Down S&P+ | 120.1 | 15 | 104.5 | 46 |
| 2nd Down S&P+ | 106.2 | 53 | 105.6 | 52 |
| 3rd Down S&P+ | 112.3 | 37 | 103.9 | 56 |
Offensive Footprint
| Team | Rk | Nat'l Average | |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 87.3% | 4 | 60.4% |
| Pass Downs Run Rate | 67.5% | 3 | 34.0% |
| Adj. Pace | +4.3 | 24 | +0.0 |
| % of Solo Tackles | 70.0% | 104 | 74.9% |
Defensive Footprint
| Team | Rk | Nat'l Average | |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 64.3% | 29 | 60.3% |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 34.2% | 65 | 33.9% |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 17.7% | 37 | 16.0% |
| DL Havoc Rate | 4.2% | 82 | 5.1% |
| LB Havoc Rate | 5.9% | 24 | 4.5% |
| DB Havoc Rate | 7.5% | 26 | 6.3% |
| PD to INC | 30.8% | 78 | 32.8% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| Roland Ladipo | DB | 5'10, 185 | JR | 65.5 | 10.0% | 4.5 | 1.0 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 0 |
| Weston Steelhammer | DB | 6'2, 200 | JR | 63.0 | 9.6% | 10.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Hansen | DL | 6'3, 260 | SR | 53.0 | 8.1% | 15.5 | 7.5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Brodie Hicks | DB | 6'2, 200 | JR | 52.5 | 8.0% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Ross | LB | 6'0, 220 | SO | 45.5 | 7.0% | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Claude Alexander III | LB | 6'1, 225 | JR | 45.0 | 6.9% | 10.5 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Dunn, Jr. | LB | 6'3, 240 | JR | 38.5 | 5.9% | 12.5 | 6.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jesse Washington | DB | 6'0, 185 | JR | 33.5 | 5.1% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Patrick Healy | LB | 6'1, 225 | JR | 29.5 | 4.5% | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lochlin Deeks | DL | 6'4, 265 | JR | 23.0 | 3.5% | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Connor Healy | LB | 6'0, 225 | SR | 23.0 | 3.5% | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Flor | LB | 6'2, 225 | SO | 23.0 | 3.5% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Onyechi | LB | 6'1, 195 | JR | 21.5 | 3.3% | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Watson | LB | 6'3, 230 | JR | 17.5 | 2.7% | 4.5 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Hayes Linn | DB | 6'0, 185 | JR | 16.5 | 2.5% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Dexter Walker | LB | 6'0, 210 | SR | 15.5 | 2.4% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Santo Coppola | DL | 6'4, 285 | SO | 13.0 | 2.0% | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kalon Baker | DB | 6'0, 190 | SR | 12.5 | 1.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Samuel Byers | DL | 6'5, 275 | JR | 10.0 | 1.5% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Harris | DL | 6'0, 269 | JR | 8.0 | 1.2% | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquis Griffin | DB | 5'11, 185 | SO | 6.5 | 1.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Lacy | DL | 6'4, 250 | JR | 4.5 | 0.7% | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Weaver | DB | 6'1, 210 | JR | 4.0 | 0.6% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Timothy McVey | RB | 5'9, 190 | SO | 3.5 | 0.5% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Karson Roberts | QB | 6'0, 195 | SR | 3.0 | 0.5% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | |||||||||||
Special Teams
| Rating | Rank | |
| Special Teams S&P+ | 0.8 | 36 |
| Category | Rate | Rank |
| FG Value (per kick) | 0.44 | 10 |
| Punt Success Rate | 42.4% | 121 |
| Kickoff Success Rate | 75.6% | 46 |
| Punt Return Success Rate | 26.7% | 124 |
| Kick Return Success Rate | 59.4% | 14 |
| Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Luke Strebel | 5'10, 170 | SO | 37-37 | 10-11 | 90.9% |
| Drew Oehrle | 6'0, 175 | SR | 18-20 | 3-5 | 60.0% |
| Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Steve Brosy | , | 0 | 33 | 37.0 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 69.7% |
| Luke Strebel | 5'10, 170 | SO | 13 | 40.0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 30.8% |
| Brett Dunn | 5'10, 190 | SR | 13 | 41.5 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 76.9% |
| Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches |
Onside Att |
Onside Success |
| Luke Strebel | 5'10, 170 | SO | 42 | 62.3 | 24 | 57.1% | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Drew Oehrle | 6'0, 175 | SR | 38 | 63.5 | 23 | 60.5% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Daniel Zivney | , | 0 | 3 | 64.3 | 2 | 66.7% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Garrett Brown | 5'9, 180 | SR | 15 | 9.3 | 1 | 21 | 0 (0) |
| Andrew Smith | , | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 (0) |
| Alex Ludowig | 5'11, 170 | SR | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 (0) |
| Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Tyler Williams | 5'10, 185 | SO | 15 | 22.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Bryan Driskell | 5'8, 190 | JR | 8 | 19.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Timothy McVey | 5'9, 190 | SO | 5 | 27.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics