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2016 Air Force advanced statistical profile

Updated on 1/13/2017

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2015 | 2016

Air Force Falcons (MWC Mountain)

2016 Schedule & Results
Record: 10-3 | Second-order wins (diff.): 8.4 (-1.6) | S&P+ Rk: 62
Date Opponent Opp. S&P+ Rk Score W-L Win
Expectancy
Adj. Scoring
Margin
Percentile
Performance
Off.
Percentile
Def.
Percentile
3-Sep Abilene Christian N/A 37-21 W 97% 14.4 23% 30% 13%
10-Sep Georgia State 108 48-14 W 99% 19.2 73% 95% 56%
24-Sep at Utah State 70 27-20 W 65% 3.1 50% 37% 63%
1-Oct Navy 52 28-14 W 100% 23.1 88% 50% 96%
8-Oct at Wyoming 61 26-35 L 10% -9.9 23% 20% 52%
15-Oct vs. New Mexico 81 40-45 L 37% -2.6 35% 69% 42%
22-Oct Hawaii 97 27-34 L 17% -7.6 19% 16% 46%
28-Oct at Fresno State 116 31-21 W 84% 7.8 42% 47% 36%
5-Nov at Army 101 31-12 W 100% 28.1 89% 90% 88%
12-Nov Colorado State 38 49-46 W 60% 1.9 61% 86% 34%
19-Nov at San Jose State 112 41-38 W 71% 4.4 37% 69% 20%
25-Nov Boise State 19 27-20 W 16% -7.8 46% 57% 63%
30-Dec vs. South Alabama 93 45-21 W 87% 9.0 60% 87% 31%
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
S&P+ 31.6 52 31.6 85
Points Per Game 35.2 30 26.2 49
Five Factors
Offense Defense
Category Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 1.19 100 1.47 124 1.27
EFFICIENCY Success Rate 48.1% 11 37.3% 26 40.9%
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 31.6 27 28.5 44 29.7
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 4.80 37 4.69 87 4.47
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED 4.72 30 Turnover Luck (PPG):
+0.49
ACTUAL 6 28
Rushing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Rushing S&P+ 105.5 53 124.3 9 100.0
Rushing Success Rate 50.1% 11 35.3% 11 43.1%
Rushing IsoPPP 0.99 102 1.11 73 1.08
Adj. Line Yards 103 61 121.6 8 100.0
Opportunity Rate 43.4% 19 25.9% 1 39.7%
Power Success Rate 72.1% 40 66.7% 58 67.9%
Stuff Rate 12.9% 2 22.7% 25 18.9%

Individual Rushing Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Fumbles
(Lost)
D.J. Johnson RB 5'10, 235 SR 150 622 2 4.1 2.9 31.3% 4 (3)
Jacobi Owens RB 6'0, 202 SR 142 859 5 6.0 5.3 46.5% 3 (2)
Arion Worthman QB 5'11, 201 SO 123 716 6 5.8 4.8 46.3% 1 (0)
Shayne Davern RB 6'0, 240 SR 116 475 4 4.1 2.3 31.9% 1 (0)
Nate Romine QB 5'11, 190 SR 85 339 3 4.0 4.2 36.5% 6 (2)
Timothy McVey RB 5'9, 190 JR 84 708 10 8.4 5.7 67.9% 2 (0)
Tyler Williams WR 5'10, 185 JR 48 270 6 5.6 3.6 54.2% 1 (0)
Ronald Cleveland WR 5'9, 175 SO 22 160 2 7.3 5.6 59.1% 2 (1)
Parker Wilson RB 5'11, 203 SO 16 97 0 6.1 4.2 50.0% 1 (1)
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Passing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing S&P+ 123.7 15 91.7 99 100.0
Passing Success Rate 38.8% 84 39.4% 51 40.9%
Passing IsoPPP 2.42 1 1.82 125 1.49
Adj. Sack Rate 66 117 93 74 100

Individual Passing Stats

Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Nate Romine 5'11, 190 SR 45 108 1206 10 4 41.7% 10 8.5% 9.7
Arion Worthman 5'11, 201 SO 23 39 546 4 2 59.0% 7 15.2% 11.0

Individual Receiving Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate Success Rate Target
Rate
Jalen Robinette WR 6'4, 215 SR 66 35 959 6 27.4 14.5 53.0% 51.5% 47.1%
Ryan Reffitt TE 6'5, 240 JR 23 8 173 2 21.6 7.5 34.8% 34.8% 16.4%
Ronald Cleveland WR 5'9, 175 SO 17 4 162 3 40.5 9.5 23.5% 23.5% 12.1%
Timothy McVey RB 5'9, 190 JR 12 8 193 2 24.1 16.1 66.7% 58.3% 8.6%
Tyler Williams WR 5'10, 185 JR 10 6 136 0 22.7 13.6 60.0% 60.0% 7.1%
Shayne Davern RB 6'0, 240 SR 5 4 69 0 17.3 13.8 80.0% 80.0% 3.6%
Jacobi Owens RB 6'0, 202 SR 5 3 60 1 20.0 12.0 60.0% 40.0% 3.6%
Arion Worthman QB 5'11, 201 SO 1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%
Jake Matkovich WR 6'5, 185 SO 1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%
Standard Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Standard Downs S&P+ 103.7 55 112.9 20 100.0
Standard Downs Success Rate 53.1% 13 40.0% 9 47.3%
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.06 91 1.26 118 1.12
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.40 11 2.30 7 2.98
SD Sack Rate 6.3% 96 5.6% 48 5.1%
Passing Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing Downs S&P+ 107.7 50 86.3 110 100.0
Passing Downs Success Rate 32.4% 44 32.6% 85 31.1%
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.91 22 1.94 114 1.76
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.29 66 3.37 79 3.24
PD Sack Rate 12.4% 118 7.4% 72 7.9%
Situational
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk
Q1 S&P+ 99.6 76 91.5 99
Q2 S&P+ 111.1 44 107.2 44
Q3 S&P+ 113.1 31 114.2 24
Q4 S&P+ 98.7 78 113.1 26
1st Down S&P+ 105.4 50 113.1 25
2nd Down S&P+ 106.5 49 109.5 40
3rd Down S&P+ 106.1 61 88.4 106
Offensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 88.4% 2 60.2%
Pass Downs Run Rate 62.5% 3 34.6%
Adj. Pace +8.6 7 +0.0
% of Solo Tackles 69.3% 107 74.2%
Defensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 62.7% 41 60.2%
Pass. Downs Run Rate 30.4% 101 34.5%
Overall Havoc Rate 17.3% 34 15.8%
DL Havoc Rate 1.9% 123 5.0%
LB Havoc Rate 8.3% 6 4.3%
DB Havoc Rate 6.8% 41 6.4%
PD to INC 33.5% 57 33.1%
Individual Defensive Stats
Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF
Weston Steelhammer DB 6'2, 200 SR 63.5 10.4% 4.5 1.0 7 4 1
Brodie Hicks DB 6'2, 200 SR 55.0 9.0% 2.5 0.0 4 1 2
Grant Ross LB 6'0, 220 JR 48.5 8.0% 6.5 3.5 0 0 1
Haji Dunn, Jr. LB 6'3, 240 SR 43.0 7.1% 11.5 5.0 0 7 3
Jesse Washington DB 6'0, 190 SR 41.0 6.7% 2.0 0.0 2 11 0
Claude Alexander III LB 6'1, 225 SR 36.0 5.9% 4.5 1.5 0 2 0
Jacob Onyechi LB 6'1, 195 SR 32.5 5.3% 7.5 2.0 0 3 0
Roland Ladipo DB 5'10, 185 SR 31.5 5.2% 0.5 0.0 1 7 2
Ryan Watson LB 6'3, 230 SR 28.0 4.6% 10.0 8.0 0 1 0
Hayes Linn DB 6'0, 190 SR 27.5 4.5% 0.0 0.0 0 3 0
Samuel Byers DL 6'5, 285 SR 25.5 4.2% 4.5 1.5 0 0 0
Patrick Healy LB 6'1, 225 SR 25.5 4.2% 4.0 0.5 1 3 0
Lochlin Deeks DL 6'4, 280 SR 22.0 3.6% 2.0 0.0 0 1 0
Marquis Griffin DB 5'11, 195 JR 19.5 3.2% 0.5 0.0 0 1 0
Jack Flor LB 6'2, 225 JR 18.5 3.0% 3.0 2.0 0 0 0
Santo Coppola DL 6'4, 285 JR 18.5 3.0% 2.5 2.0 0 1 0
Shaquille Vereen DB 5'11, 200 JR 16.5 2.7% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0
Tyler Weaver DB 6'1, 210 SR 6.5 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0
David Harris DL 6'0, 280 SR 4.5 0.7% 1.0 0.0 0 1 0
Dailen Sutton DB 6'1, 172 SO 4.5 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0
Robert Bullard 0 , 0 4.0 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0
Bryan Driskell RB 5'8, 190 SR 4.0 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0
Brayden Hill DB 5'10, 210 SR 3.5 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0
Kyle Floyd DB 6'0, 197 SO 3.5 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0
Jalen Lacy DL 6'4, 250 SR 3.0 0.5% 3.0 2.0 0 0 0
Special Teams

Rating Rank
Special Teams S&P+ 1.1 23
Category Rate Rank
FG Value (per kick) 0.30 31
Punt Success Rate 58.3% 50
Kickoff Success Rate 76.1% 50
Punt Return Success Rate 77.8% 5
Kick Return Success Rate 45.0% 57
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Luke Strebel 5'10, 175 JR 51-51 22-25 88.0%
Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Steve Brosy 5'11, 200 SR 48 41.1 1 18 16 70.8%
Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Luke Strebel 5'10, 175 JR 88 61.2 45 51.1% 0 4 1 1
Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Ronald Cleveland 5'9, 175 SO 7 10.9 0 22 0 (0)
Brett Baldwin , 0 2 6.0 0 0 1 (0)
Jalen Robinette 6'4, 215 SR 0 0.0 0 2 0 (0)
Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Timothy McVey 5'9, 190 JR 17 26.3 1 0 1 (0)
Bryan Driskell 5'8, 190 SR 3 20.3 0 0 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics