Updated on 1/13/2017
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2015 | 2016
Air Force Falcons (MWC Mountain)
2016 Schedule & Results
| Record: 10-3 | Second-order wins (diff.): 8.4 (-1.6) | S&P+ Rk: 62 | |||||||||
| Date | Opponent | Opp. S&P+ Rk | Score | W-L | Win Expectancy |
Adj. Scoring Margin |
Percentile Performance |
Off. Percentile |
Def. Percentile |
| 3-Sep | Abilene Christian | N/A | 37-21 | W | 97% | 14.4 | 23% | 30% | 13% |
| 10-Sep | Georgia State | 108 | 48-14 | W | 99% | 19.2 | 73% | 95% | 56% |
| 24-Sep | at Utah State | 70 | 27-20 | W | 65% | 3.1 | 50% | 37% | 63% |
| 1-Oct | Navy | 52 | 28-14 | W | 100% | 23.1 | 88% | 50% | 96% |
| 8-Oct | at Wyoming | 61 | 26-35 | L | 10% | -9.9 | 23% | 20% | 52% |
| 15-Oct | vs. New Mexico | 81 | 40-45 | L | 37% | -2.6 | 35% | 69% | 42% |
| 22-Oct | Hawaii | 97 | 27-34 | L | 17% | -7.6 | 19% | 16% | 46% |
| 28-Oct | at Fresno State | 116 | 31-21 | W | 84% | 7.8 | 42% | 47% | 36% |
| 5-Nov | at Army | 101 | 31-12 | W | 100% | 28.1 | 89% | 90% | 88% |
| 12-Nov | Colorado State | 38 | 49-46 | W | 60% | 1.9 | 61% | 86% | 34% |
| 19-Nov | at San Jose State | 112 | 41-38 | W | 71% | 4.4 | 37% | 69% | 20% |
| 25-Nov | Boise State | 19 | 27-20 | W | 16% | -7.8 | 46% | 57% | 63% |
| 30-Dec | vs. South Alabama | 93 | 45-21 | W | 87% | 9.0 | 60% | 87% | 31% |
| Category | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk |
| S&P+ | 31.6 | 52 | 31.6 | 85 |
| Points Per Game | 35.2 | 30 | 26.2 | 49 |
Five Factors
| Offense | Defense | |||||
| Category | Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Nat'l Avg. | |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | IsoPPP | 1.19 | 100 | 1.47 | 124 | 1.27 |
| EFFICIENCY | Success Rate | 48.1% | 11 | 37.3% | 26 | 40.9% |
| FIELD POSITION | Avg. FP | 31.6 | 27 | 28.5 | 44 | 29.7 |
| FINISHING DRIVES | Pts. Per Trip in 40 | 4.80 | 37 | 4.69 | 87 | 4.47 |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED | 4.72 | 30 | Turnover Luck (PPG): +0.49 |
||
| ACTUAL | 6 | 28 | ||||
Rushing
| Offense | Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Nat'l Avg. | |
| Rushing S&P+ | 105.5 | 53 | 124.3 | 9 | 100.0 |
| Rushing Success Rate | 50.1% | 11 | 35.3% | 11 | 43.1% |
| Rushing IsoPPP | 0.99 | 102 | 1.11 | 73 | 1.08 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 103 | 61 | 121.6 | 8 | 100.0 |
| Opportunity Rate | 43.4% | 19 | 25.9% | 1 | 39.7% |
| Power Success Rate | 72.1% | 40 | 66.7% | 58 | 67.9% |
| Stuff Rate | 12.9% | 2 | 22.7% | 25 | 18.9% |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Opp. |
Opp. Rate |
Fumbles (Lost) |
| D.J. Johnson | RB | 5'10, 235 | SR | 150 | 622 | 2 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 31.3% | 4 (3) |
| Jacobi Owens | RB | 6'0, 202 | SR | 142 | 859 | 5 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 46.5% | 3 (2) |
| Arion Worthman | QB | 5'11, 201 | SO | 123 | 716 | 6 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 46.3% | 1 (0) |
| Shayne Davern | RB | 6'0, 240 | SR | 116 | 475 | 4 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 31.9% | 1 (0) |
| Nate Romine | QB | 5'11, 190 | SR | 85 | 339 | 3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 36.5% | 6 (2) |
| Timothy McVey | RB | 5'9, 190 | JR | 84 | 708 | 10 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 67.9% | 2 (0) |
| Tyler Williams | WR | 5'10, 185 | JR | 48 | 270 | 6 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 54.2% | 1 (0) |
| Ronald Cleveland | WR | 5'9, 175 | SO | 22 | 160 | 2 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 59.1% | 2 (1) |
| Parker Wilson | RB | 5'11, 203 | SO | 16 | 97 | 0 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 50.0% | 1 (1) |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Passing
| Offense | Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Nat'l Avg. | |
| Passing S&P+ | 123.7 | 15 | 91.7 | 99 | 100.0 |
| Passing Success Rate | 38.8% | 84 | 39.4% | 51 | 40.9% |
| Passing IsoPPP | 2.42 | 1 | 1.82 | 125 | 1.49 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 66 | 117 | 93 | 74 | 100 |
Individual Passing Stats
| Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate |
Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Nate Romine | 5'11, 190 | SR | 45 | 108 | 1206 | 10 | 4 | 41.7% | 10 | 8.5% | 9.7 |
| Arion Worthman | 5'11, 201 | SO | 23 | 39 | 546 | 4 | 2 | 59.0% | 7 | 15.2% | 11.0 |
Individual Receiving Stats
| Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch |
Yds/ Target |
Catch Rate | Success Rate | Target Rate |
| Jalen Robinette | WR | 6'4, 215 | SR | 66 | 35 | 959 | 6 | 27.4 | 14.5 | 53.0% | 51.5% | 47.1% |
| Ryan Reffitt | TE | 6'5, 240 | JR | 23 | 8 | 173 | 2 | 21.6 | 7.5 | 34.8% | 34.8% | 16.4% |
| Ronald Cleveland | WR | 5'9, 175 | SO | 17 | 4 | 162 | 3 | 40.5 | 9.5 | 23.5% | 23.5% | 12.1% |
| Timothy McVey | RB | 5'9, 190 | JR | 12 | 8 | 193 | 2 | 24.1 | 16.1 | 66.7% | 58.3% | 8.6% |
| Tyler Williams | WR | 5'10, 185 | JR | 10 | 6 | 136 | 0 | 22.7 | 13.6 | 60.0% | 60.0% | 7.1% |
| Shayne Davern | RB | 6'0, 240 | SR | 5 | 4 | 69 | 0 | 17.3 | 13.8 | 80.0% | 80.0% | 3.6% |
| Jacobi Owens | RB | 6'0, 202 | SR | 5 | 3 | 60 | 1 | 20.0 | 12.0 | 60.0% | 40.0% | 3.6% |
| Arion Worthman | QB | 5'11, 201 | SO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| Jake Matkovich | WR | 6'5, 185 | SO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
Standard Downs
| Offense | Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Nat'l Avg. | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 103.7 | 55 | 112.9 | 20 | 100.0 |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 53.1% | 13 | 40.0% | 9 | 47.3% |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.06 | 91 | 1.26 | 118 | 1.12 |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.40 | 11 | 2.30 | 7 | 2.98 |
| SD Sack Rate | 6.3% | 96 | 5.6% | 48 | 5.1% |
Passing Downs
| Offense | Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Nat'l Avg. | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 107.7 | 50 | 86.3 | 110 | 100.0 |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 32.4% | 44 | 32.6% | 85 | 31.1% |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.91 | 22 | 1.94 | 114 | 1.76 |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.29 | 66 | 3.37 | 79 | 3.24 |
| PD Sack Rate | 12.4% | 118 | 7.4% | 72 | 7.9% |
Situational
| Offense | Defense | |||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | |
| Q1 S&P+ | 99.6 | 76 | 91.5 | 99 |
| Q2 S&P+ | 111.1 | 44 | 107.2 | 44 |
| Q3 S&P+ | 113.1 | 31 | 114.2 | 24 |
| Q4 S&P+ | 98.7 | 78 | 113.1 | 26 |
| 1st Down S&P+ | 105.4 | 50 | 113.1 | 25 |
| 2nd Down S&P+ | 106.5 | 49 | 109.5 | 40 |
| 3rd Down S&P+ | 106.1 | 61 | 88.4 | 106 |
Offensive Footprint
| Team | Rk | Nat'l Average | |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 88.4% | 2 | 60.2% |
| Pass Downs Run Rate | 62.5% | 3 | 34.6% |
| Adj. Pace | +8.6 | 7 | +0.0 |
| % of Solo Tackles | 69.3% | 107 | 74.2% |
Defensive Footprint
| Team | Rk | Nat'l Average | |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 62.7% | 41 | 60.2% |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 30.4% | 101 | 34.5% |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 17.3% | 34 | 15.8% |
| DL Havoc Rate | 1.9% | 123 | 5.0% |
| LB Havoc Rate | 8.3% | 6 | 4.3% |
| DB Havoc Rate | 6.8% | 41 | 6.4% |
| PD to INC | 33.5% | 57 | 33.1% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF |
| Weston Steelhammer | DB | 6'2, 200 | SR | 63.5 | 10.4% | 4.5 | 1.0 | 7 | 4 | 1 |
| Brodie Hicks | DB | 6'2, 200 | SR | 55.0 | 9.0% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Grant Ross | LB | 6'0, 220 | JR | 48.5 | 8.0% | 6.5 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Haji Dunn, Jr. | LB | 6'3, 240 | SR | 43.0 | 7.1% | 11.5 | 5.0 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| Jesse Washington | DB | 6'0, 190 | SR | 41.0 | 6.7% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Claude Alexander III | LB | 6'1, 225 | SR | 36.0 | 5.9% | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Jacob Onyechi | LB | 6'1, 195 | SR | 32.5 | 5.3% | 7.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Roland Ladipo | DB | 5'10, 185 | SR | 31.5 | 5.2% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 7 | 2 |
| Ryan Watson | LB | 6'3, 230 | SR | 28.0 | 4.6% | 10.0 | 8.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Hayes Linn | DB | 6'0, 190 | SR | 27.5 | 4.5% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Samuel Byers | DL | 6'5, 285 | SR | 25.5 | 4.2% | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Healy | LB | 6'1, 225 | SR | 25.5 | 4.2% | 4.0 | 0.5 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Lochlin Deeks | DL | 6'4, 280 | SR | 22.0 | 3.6% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Marquis Griffin | DB | 5'11, 195 | JR | 19.5 | 3.2% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jack Flor | LB | 6'2, 225 | JR | 18.5 | 3.0% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Santo Coppola | DL | 6'4, 285 | JR | 18.5 | 3.0% | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Shaquille Vereen | DB | 5'11, 200 | JR | 16.5 | 2.7% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Weaver | DB | 6'1, 210 | SR | 6.5 | 1.1% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Harris | DL | 6'0, 280 | SR | 4.5 | 0.7% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dailen Sutton | DB | 6'1, 172 | SO | 4.5 | 0.7% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Bullard | 0 | , | 0 | 4.0 | 0.7% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Driskell | RB | 5'8, 190 | SR | 4.0 | 0.7% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brayden Hill | DB | 5'10, 210 | SR | 3.5 | 0.6% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Floyd | DB | 6'0, 197 | SO | 3.5 | 0.6% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Lacy | DL | 6'4, 250 | SR | 3.0 | 0.5% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Special Teams
| Rating | Rank | |
| Special Teams S&P+ | 1.1 | 23 |
| Category | Rate | Rank |
| FG Value (per kick) | 0.30 | 31 |
| Punt Success Rate | 58.3% | 50 |
| Kickoff Success Rate | 76.1% | 50 |
| Punt Return Success Rate | 77.8% | 5 |
| Kick Return Success Rate | 45.0% | 57 |
| Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Luke Strebel | 5'10, 175 | JR | 51-51 | 22-25 | 88.0% |
| Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Steve Brosy | 5'11, 200 | SR | 48 | 41.1 | 1 | 18 | 16 | 70.8% |
| Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches |
Onside Att |
Onside Success |
| Luke Strebel | 5'10, 175 | JR | 88 | 61.2 | 45 | 51.1% | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Ronald Cleveland | 5'9, 175 | SO | 7 | 10.9 | 0 | 22 | 0 (0) |
| Brett Baldwin | , | 0 | 2 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 (0) |
| Jalen Robinette | 6'4, 215 | SR | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 (0) |
| Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Timothy McVey | 5'9, 190 | JR | 17 | 26.3 | 1 | 0 | 1 (0) |
| Bryan Driskell | 5'8, 190 | SR | 3 | 20.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics