clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

2015 Michigan State advanced statistical profile

Updated on 8/20/2016

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Back to the index page.

Got position corrections? Note them here.

Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

2015 | 2016

Michigan State Spartans (Big Ten East)

2015 Schedule & Results
Record: 12-2 | Second-order wins (diff.): 9.8 (-2.2) | S&P+ Rk: 13
Date Opponent Opp. S&P+ Rk Score W-L Win
Expectancy
Adj. Scoring
Margin
Percentile
Performance
Off.
Percentile
Def.
Percentile
4-Sep at Western Michigan 53 37-24 W 100% 22.8 94% 80% 95%
12-Sep Oregon 25 31-28 W 81% 7.1 95% 51% 89%
19-Sep Air Force 52 35-21 W 65% 3.0 92% 65% 73%
26-Sep Central Michigan 78 30-10 W 99% 19.6 93% 80% 93%
3-Oct Purdue 86 24-21 W 81% 7.0 81% 45% 47%
10-Oct at Rutgers 105 31-24 W 77% 6.0 41% 46% 40%
17-Oct at Michigan 6 27-23 W 32% -3.8 72% 64% 89%
24-Oct Indiana 60 52-26 W 79% 6.5 70% 67% 67%
7-Nov at Nebraska 48 38-39 L 34% -3.4 38% 77% 20%
14-Nov Maryland 65 24-7 W 99% 19.4 76% 24% 86%
21-Nov at Ohio State 3 17-14 W 64% 2.9 94% 62% 96%
28-Nov Penn State 30 55-16 W 99% 19.6 91% 96% 56%
5-Dec vs. Iowa 47 16-13 W 74% 5.1 79% 49% 88%
31-Dec vs. Alabama 1 0-38 L 0% -31.6 17% 28% 27%
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
S&P+ 35.1 28 19.2 12
Points Per Game 29.8 60 21.7 25
Five Factors
Offense Defense
Category Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 1.24 77 1.22 44 1.27
EFFICIENCY Success Rate 42.4% 60 39.4% 51 40.3%
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 32.0 28 27.6 25 29.9
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 5.02 42 4.41 43 4.67
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED 3.7 35 Turnover Luck (PPG):
+3.68
ACTUAL 14 4
Rushing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Rushing S&P+ 95.7 91 119.2 15 100.0
Rushing Success Rate 42.0% 73 41.4% 59 42.3%
Rushing IsoPPP 0.94 115 0.95 16 1.08
Adj. Line Yards 104.3 49 117.4 10 100.0
Opportunity Rate 36.0% 100 36.2% 43 38.9%
Power Success Rate 76.1% 14 57.1% 20 66.3%
Stuff Rate 19.3% 66 23.0% 26 19.6%

Individual Rushing Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Fumbles
(Lost)
LJ Scott RB 6'0, 233 FR 147 699 11 4.8 4.9 33.3% 3 (1)
Madre London RB 6'1, 216 FR 119 500 3 4.2 4.6 31.9% 0 (0)
Gerald Holmes RB 6'0, 216 SO 110 540 8 4.9 3.8 41.8% 0 (0)
Connor Cook QB 6'4, 220 SR 34 173 0 5.1 4.2 38.2% 1 (0)
Delton Williams RB 6'1, 228 JR 26 56 1 2.2 0.9 23.1% 0 (0)
R.J. Shelton WR 5'11, 195 JR 24 127 0 5.3 4.4 45.8% 3 (1)
Damion Terry QB 6'3, 235 SO 20 80 0 4.0 3.3 35.0% 1 (1)
Tyler O'Connor QB 6'3, 222 JR 12 56 0 4.7 1.8 50.0% 1 (0)
Aaron Burbridge WR 6'1, 208 SR 11 56 0 5.1 3.0 54.5% 2 (0)
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Passing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing S&P+ 114.4 30 123.5 12 100.0
Passing Success Rate 42.8% 44 37.6% 35 40.3%
Passing IsoPPP 1.56 37 1.47 68 1.49
Adj. Sack Rate 129.9 34 134 18 100

Individual Passing Stats

Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Connor Cook 6'4, 220 SR 229 408 3131 24 7 56.1% 18 4.2% 7.1
Tyler O'Connor 6'3, 222 JR 13 24 133 2 1 54.2% 2 7.7% 4.8
Damion Terry 6'3, 235 SO 2 7 15 0 0 28.6% 1 12.5% 0.4

Individual Receiving Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate Success Rate Target
Rate
Aaron Burbridge WR 6'1, 208 SR 146 85 1258 7 14.8 8.6 58.2% 50.0% 34.1%
Macgarrett Kings Jr. WR 5'10, 192 SR 83 40 519 5 13.0 6.3 48.2% 32.5% 19.4%
R.J. Shelton WR 5'11, 195 JR 64 43 503 4 11.7 7.9 67.2% 51.6% 15.0%
Josiah Price TE 6'4, 252 JR 39 23 267 6 11.6 6.9 59.0% 46.2% 9.1%
Paul Lang TE 6'5, 260 SR 16 11 129 0 11.7 8.1 68.8% 56.2% 3.7%
Jamal Lyles TE 6'3, 263 JR 15 8 133 1 16.6 8.9 53.3% 53.3% 3.5%
Gerald Holmes RB 6'0, 216 SO 12 10 92 0 9.2 7.7 83.3% 50.0% 2.8%
DeAnthony Arnett WR 5'11, 184 SR 10 6 106 2 17.7 10.6 60.0% 60.0% 2.3%
Monty Madaris WR 6'1, 202 JR 8 2 47 0 23.5 5.9 25.0% 12.5% 1.9%
AJ Troup WR 6'2, 218 SR 8 2 28 0 14.0 3.5 25.0% 25.0% 1.9%
LJ Scott RB 6'0, 233 FR 8 3 15 0 5.0 1.9 37.5% 12.5% 1.9%
Trevon Pendleton FB 6'0, 250 SR 6 4 94 1 23.5 15.7 66.7% 66.7% 1.4%
Delton Williams RB 6'1, 228 JR 5 2 15 0 7.5 3.0 40.0% 20.0% 1.2%
Felton Davis III WR 6'4, 181 FR 4 2 50 0 25.0 12.5 50.0% 50.0% 0.9%
Madre London RB 6'1, 216 FR 4 3 23 0 7.7 5.8 75.0% 50.0% 0.9%
Standard Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Standard Downs S&P+ 95.1 96 124.6 4 100.0
Standard Downs Success Rate 45.3% 84 43.4% 42 46.5%
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.06 88 0.99 15 1.11
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.73 93 2.63 29 2.90
SD Sack Rate 4.1% 47 6.6% 20 5.0%
Passing Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing Downs S&P+ 125.5 15 109.0 41 100.0
Passing Downs Success Rate 36.3% 22 31.3% 72 30.7%
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.71 82 1.84 84 1.77
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.26 65 3.42 86 3.20
PD Sack Rate 5.6% 27 9.3% 27 7.5%
Situational
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk
Q1 S&P+ 100.0 75 121.0 22
Q2 S&P+ 102.0 70 127.5 9
Q3 S&P+ 109.6 41 102.4 63
Q4 S&P+ 105.4 54 109.0 37
1st Down S&P+ 90.4 104 106.5 40
2nd Down S&P+ 107.1 49 127.8 8
3rd Down S&P+ 129.5 8 116.8 22
Offensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 68.3% 21 60.4%
Pass Downs Run Rate 22.0% 121 34.0%
Adj. Pace -0.5 66 +0.0
% of Solo Tackles 62.8% 125 74.9%
Defensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 57.0% 101 60.3%
Pass. Downs Run Rate 26.0% 121 33.9%
Overall Havoc Rate 18.8% 22 16.0%
DL Havoc Rate 7.4% 13 5.1%
LB Havoc Rate 4.7% 53 4.5%
DB Havoc Rate 6.4% 59 6.3%
PD to INC 34.1% 52 32.8%
Individual Defensive Stats
Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Riley Bullough LB 6'2, 230 JR 77.0 11.0% 7.5 4.0 2 2 2 1
Montae Nicholson S 6'2, 220 SO 67.5 9.7% 2.5 0.0 3 2 1 0
Darien Harris LB 6'0, 220 SR 66.0 9.4% 9.0 0.0 0 3 0 0
Demetrious Cox DB 6'1, 200 JR 63.5 9.1% 2.0 0.0 3 7 0 1
Jon Reschke LB 6'2, 228 SO 53.0 7.6% 5.5 2.0 0 2 0 0
Arjen Colquhoun CB 6'1, 202 SR 38.0 5.4% 1.5 1.0 2 10 2 0
Shilique Calhoun DE 6'5, 250 SR 35.5 5.1% 15.0 10.5 0 3 1 0
Malik McDowell DL 6'6, 275 SO 31.0 4.4% 13.0 4.5 1 0 2 0
Darian Hicks CB 5'10, 180 JR 25.5 3.6% 0.5 0.0 0 3 0 0
Lawrence Thomas DL 6'4, 305 SR 24.5 3.5% 5.0 3.0 0 5 0 0
Joel Heath DL 6'6, 293 SR 22.0 3.1% 5.5 2.0 0 1 1 0
Grayson Miller S 6'3, 200 FR 20.0 2.9% 1.0 0.0 1 0 0 0
Jermaine Edmondson CB 6'0, 182 JR 19.5 2.8% 2.5 0.0 0 3 0 0
Chris Frey LB 6'2, 235 SO 17.5 2.5% 5.0 2.5 0 0 0 0
RJ Williamson S 6'0, 216 SR 17.5 2.5% 2.0 0.0 2 1 0 1
Shane Jones LB 6'1, 234 SO 17.5 2.5% 1.5 0.0 0 0 2 0
Demetrius Cooper DE 6'5, 245 SO 16.5 2.4% 6.5 5.0 0 0 2 0
Andrew Dowell LB 6'0, 216 FR 15.5 2.2% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 1
Craig Evans DT 6'2, 318 FR 15.0 2.1% 3.5 1.0 0 0 0 0
Damon Knox DL 6'5, 276 SR 10.0 1.4% 1.5 0.5 0 0 0 0
Vayante Copeland CB 6'0, 195 FR 6.5 0.9% 2.0 0.0 1 1 0 0
Khari Willis S 5'11, 202 FR 6.5 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Evan Jones DE 6'5, 248 JR 4.5 0.6% 0.5 0.0 0 0 0 0
Gerald Holmes RB 6'0, 216 SO 4.0 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Matt Morrissey S 6'2, 203 FR 4.0 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Special Teams

Rating Rank
Special Teams S&P+ -1.1 108
Category Rate Rank
FG Value (per kick) -0.24 103
Punt Success Rate 50.0% 96
Kickoff Success Rate 67.9% 78
Punt Return Success Rate 38.5% 102
Kick Return Success Rate 56.5% 19
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Michael Geiger 5'8, 186 JR 51-53 12-19 63.2%
Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Jake Hartbarger 6'4, 210 FR 57 42.7 8 13 19 56.1%
Tyler O'Connor 6'3, 222 JR 5 38.4 1 0 1 20.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Kevin Cronin 6'1, 225 JR 76 60.1 23 30.3% 0 2 0 0
Michael Geiger 5'8, 186 JR 2 45.0 0 0.0% 0 1 0 0
Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Macgarrett Kings Jr. 5'10, 192 SR 10 3.8 0 13 1 (1)
R.J. Shelton 5'11, 195 JR 3 2.0 0 5 1 (0)
Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
R.J. Shelton 5'11, 195 JR 19 21.8 0 0 1 (0)
Delton Williams 6'1, 228 JR 2 15.5 0 0 0 (0)
LJ Scott 6'0, 233 FR 1 25.0 0 0 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics