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Study Hall: Oregon State 36, Colorado 31

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Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon State 36, Colorado 31

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Colorado Oregon State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 77 69
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 26.8 28.3 29.7
Possessions 12 13
Scoring Opportunities*
5 7
Points Per Opportunity 6.20 5.29 4.69
Leverage Rate** 72.7% 71.0% 68.4%
Close S&P*** 0.578 0.551 0.508
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Colorado Oregon State
Total 28.2 27.9
Rushing 8.9 14.2
Passing 19.3 13.7
Success Rate (what's this?) Colorado Oregon State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 55.8% 47.8% 42.2%
Rushing (close) 73.1% 50.0% 43.6%
Passing (close) 47.1% 46.2% 40.7%
Standard Downs 57.1% 59.2% 47.5%
Passing Downs 52.4% 20.0% 30.7%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Colorado Oregon State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.66 0.84 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.47 0.95 0.73
Passing (close) 0.80 0.76 0.99
Standard Downs 0.57 0.83 0.77
Passing Downs 0.90 0.98 1.14
Line Stats Colorado Oregon State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 4.04 3.57 2.93
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 6.5% 8.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 7.3%
Turnovers Colorado Oregon State
Turnovers 1 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 6.2 0.0
Turnover Margin Oregon State +1
Exp. TO Margin Oregon State +0.44
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Oregon State +0.56
TO Points Margin Oregon State +6.2 points
Situational Colorado Oregon State
Q1 S&P 0.589 0.693
Q2 S&P 0.679 0.395
Q3 S&P 0.408 0.504
Q4 S&P 0.530 0.585
1st Down S&P 0.558 0.627
2nd Down S&P 0.695 0.483
3rd Down S&P 0.459 0.463
Projected Scoring Margin: Oregon State by 5.9
Actual Scoring Margin: Oregon State by 5

Somehow this was just about the least compelling Pac-12 game of the day...

Oregon State needed turnovers to get ahead in this one; Colorado was incredibly efficient (anything over a 50% success rate is quite good), especially on the ground -- Michael Adkins and Phillip Lindsay had 18 carries for 108 yards. But while they were really good at carving out five to six yards at a time, the successful plays weren't huge, and Oregon State was able to prevent seven of 12 possessions from becoming scoring opportunities. (That's a good thing, as Colorado cashed in on almost every opportunity.)