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California 60, Washington State 59
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | California | Washington State | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 71 | 95 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 23.3 | 28.9 | 29.7 |
| Possessions | 13 | 15 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
8 | 11 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 6.00 | 5.36 | 4.69 |
| Leverage Rate** | 69.0% | 69.5% | 68.4% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.621 | 0.632 | 0.508 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | California | Washington State | |
| Total | 39.6 | 54.7 | |
| Rushing | 5.0 | 6.5 | |
| Passing | 34.6 | 48.2 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | California | Washington State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 49.3% | 50.5% | 42.2% |
| Rushing (close) | 47.1% | 40.0% | 43.6% |
| Passing (close) | 50.0% | 54.3% | 40.7% |
| Standard Downs | 51.0% | 51.5% | 47.5% |
| Passing Downs | 45.5% | 48.3% | 30.7% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | California | Washington State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.13 | 1.14 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.62 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| Passing (close) | 1.28 | 1.27 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 0.89 | 1.12 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 1.73 | 1.18 | 1.14 |
| Line Stats | California | Washington State | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.85 | 1.94 | 2.93 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 5.0% | 0.0% | 7.3% |
| Turnovers | California | Washington State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Turnover Margin | +0 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Washington State +1.32 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | California +1.32 | |
| TO Points Margin | +0 | |
| Situational | California | Washington State |
| Q1 S&P | 0.351 | 0.626 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.518 | 0.610 |
| Q3 S&P | 1.003 | 0.711 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.700 | 0.582 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.540 | 0.599 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.728 | 0.683 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.594 | 0.614 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Washington State by 15.1 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: California by 1 | ||
Twenty-eight possessions! Nineteen combined scoring opportunities! This game was played on a different planet than the one that produced Miami-Georgia Tech or Florida-Tennessee. This was a different sport.
And yeah, Wazzu was projected to have won by 15 points; what accounts for the 16-point difference there? Maybe two Cal kick-return scores and a missed chipshot field goal? Maybe?
At some point, Sonny Dykes will have to figure out the whole "defense" thing if he's going to win big at Cal; for now, however, his offense is good enough to make games ridiculous and entertaining. I'll take it.