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Since I've been talking about pace adjustments in my F/+ picks the last couple of weeks, I thought it might be interesting go ahead and share the pace numbers I've been using. They're imperfect (isn't everything), but I like them quite a bit.
Instead of focusing on plays per minute or simply plays per game, I've always looked at pace at least partially as a function of run-pass ratio. Running plays are less likely, on average, to result in a stopped clock, simply because of the lack of incomplete passes. So in theory, if you run a lot, even if you go at mach speed you're not going to end up with as many plays per game as a pass-happy team like Washington State.
So basically, I use run-pass ratio to create what is basically an Expected Plays Per Game figure, then compare it to the actual plays. You could go much further with this if you take incomplete passes into account, or charting data that talks about runs to the edge, or whatever. But this works perfectly fine for my needs.
Here are your pace figures for college football in 2014 through four weeks. Teams are ranked in order of the difference between expected and actual plays. Who is actually the most up-tempo team in college football?
Yeah, it's still Baylor. And Vanderbilt is the slowest. Advanced stats sometimes do give you the answer you're expecting.
Offense | Plays Per Game | Rk | % Run | Expected Plays Per Game | Diff | Rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baylor | 86.4 | 3 | 56.7% | 72.3 | 14.1 | 1 |
West Virginia | 86.6 | 2 | 47.6% | 73.4 | 13.2 | 2 |
Colorado | 86.8 | 1 | 41.7% | 74.2 | 12.7 | 3 |
Arizona | 85.8 | 4 | 48.7% | 73.3 | 12.5 | 4 |
Tulsa | 85.6 | 6 | 42.3% | 74.1 | 11.5 | 5 |
Western Kentucky | 85.8 | 4 | 37.8% | 74.6 | 11.2 | 6 |
Arkansas State | 83.6 | 8 | 54.3% | 72.6 | 11.0 | 7 |
Bowling Green | 84.0 | 7 | 43.5% | 73.9 | 10.1 | 8 |
Hawaii | 83.4 | 9 | 46.8% | 73.5 | 9.9 | 9 |
Memphis | 81.6 | 14 | 59.6% | 72.0 | 9.6 | 10 |
UAB | 81.2 | 15 | 61.6% | 71.7 | 9.5 | 11 |
USC | 82.0 | 13 | 52.4% | 72.9 | 9.1 | 12 |
Indiana | 81.0 | 16 | 59.3% | 72.0 | 9.0 | 13 |
TCU | 82.8 | 11 | 44.4% | 73.8 | 8.9 | 14 |
Idaho | 83.4 | 9 | 36.9% | 74.7 | 8.7 | 15 |
Clemson | 81.0 | 16 | 53.3% | 72.7 | 8.3 | 16 |
Fresno State | 81.0 | 16 | 46.3% | 73.6 | 7.4 | 17 |
Texas State | 79.2 | 20 | 57.3% | 72.3 | 6.9 | 18 |
Virginia Tech | 79.3 | 19 | 51.5% | 73.0 | 6.4 | 19 |
Air Force | 76.0 | 41 | 77.9% | 69.8 | 6.2 | 20 |
Ohio State | 77.8 | 26 | 61.2% | 71.8 | 6.0 | 21 |
Boise State | 79.2 | 22 | 48.8% | 73.3 | 5.9 | 22 |
Washington State | 82.2 | 12 | 22.3% | 76.5 | 5.7 | 23 |
BYU | 78.2 | 24 | 55.0% | 72.5 | 5.7 | 24 |
New Mexico State | 78.7 | 23 | 48.7% | 73.3 | 5.4 | 25 |
Nebraska | 77.0 | 33 | 61.7% | 71.7 | 5.3 | 26 |
Mississippi State | 77.0 | 33 | 61.3% | 71.8 | 5.2 | 27 |
Alabama | 77.4 | 31 | 57.4% | 72.3 | 5.1 | 28 |
Buffalo | 77.8 | 25 | 53.3% | 72.7 | 5.1 | 29 |
Michigan State | 76.2 | 39 | 62.7% | 71.6 | 4.6 | 30 |
Florida | 77.5 | 29 | 51.3% | 73.0 | 4.5 | 31 |
Rice | 76.4 | 37 | 60.2% | 71.9 | 4.5 | 32 |
Arizona State | 77.8 | 26 | 46.8% | 73.5 | 4.3 | 33 |
Middle Tennessee | 76.3 | 38 | 58.7% | 72.1 | 4.2 | 34 |
Northern Illinois | 75.5 | 44 | 63.6% | 71.5 | 4.0 | 35 |
Duke | 77.2 | 32 | 47.7% | 73.4 | 3.8 | 36 |
Marshall | 76.2 | 39 | 55.1% | 72.5 | 3.7 | 37 |
Tennessee | 77.6 | 28 | 42.5% | 74.1 | 3.5 | 38 |
Virginia | 76.0 | 41 | 53.9% | 72.7 | 3.3 | 39 |
Nevada | 75.8 | 43 | 55.1% | 72.5 | 3.3 | 40 |
Washington | 74.8 | 50 | 63.1% | 71.6 | 3.2 | 41 |
Utah | 75.2 | 47 | 58.8% | 72.1 | 3.1 | 42 |
Texas A&M | 77.5 | 29 | 39.4% | 74.4 | 3.1 | 43 |
North Carolina | 76.8 | 35 | 44.0% | 73.9 | 2.9 | 44 |
Boston College | 73.6 | 61 | 69.3% | 70.8 | 2.8 | 45 |
San Jose State | 75.4 | 45 | 53.1% | 72.8 | 2.6 | 46 |
East Carolina | 76.8 | 35 | 38.0% | 74.6 | 2.2 | 47 |
Louisville | 75.2 | 48 | 51.4% | 73.0 | 2.2 | 48 |
Oklahoma State | 75.0 | 49 | 52.8% | 72.8 | 2.2 | 49 |
Northwestern | 75.4 | 45 | 49.3% | 73.2 | 2.2 | 50 |
Appalachian State | 74.6 | 52 | 49.3% | 73.2 | 1.4 | 51 |
Auburn | 72.6 | 75 | 65.3% | 71.3 | 1.3 | 52 |
California | 74.8 | 50 | 46.5% | 73.6 | 1.2 | 53 |
South Alabama | 74.0 | 54 | 51.4% | 73.0 | 1.0 | 54 |
Ole Miss | 74.2 | 53 | 49.6% | 73.2 | 1.0 | 55 |
Iowa | 74.0 | 54 | 50.8% | 73.1 | 0.9 | 56 |
UCLA | 73.8 | 57 | 51.2% | 73.0 | 0.8 | 57 |
Toledo | 73.7 | 59 | 52.0% | 72.9 | 0.8 | 58 |
Kansas | 73.0 | 67 | 57.3% | 72.3 | 0.7 | 59 |
Kentucky | 73.6 | 61 | 50.8% | 73.0 | 0.6 | 60 |
South Carolina | 73.7 | 59 | 49.1% | 73.3 | 0.4 | 61 |
Utah State | 73.6 | 61 | 48.6% | 73.3 | 0.3 | 62 |
Oklahoma | 72.8 | 74 | 51.9% | 72.9 | -0.1 | 63 |
Georgia State | 73.6 | 61 | 44.3% | 73.8 | -0.2 | 64 |
Penn State | 73.6 | 61 | 40.2% | 74.3 | -0.7 | 65 |
Akron | 74.0 | 54 | 35.9% | 74.8 | -0.8 | 66 |
Syracuse | 72.0 | 75 | 52.2% | 72.9 | -0.9 | 67 |
Kansas State | 71.6 | 76 | 55.3% | 72.5 | -0.9 | 68 |
Pittsburgh | 70.7 | 81 | 62.7% | 71.6 | -0.9 | 69 |
Notre Dame | 72.4 | 72 | 48.3% | 73.3 | -0.9 | 70 |
LSU | 70.3 | 86 | 64.5% | 71.4 | -1.1 | 71 |
Miami-OH | 73.3 | 60 | 38.9% | 74.5 | -1.2 | 72 |
Texas Tech | 73.8 | 51 | 34.1% | 75.1 | -1.3 | 73 |
Wisconsin | 70.0 | 90 | 65.1% | 71.3 | -1.3 | 74 |
UL-Monroe | 72.6 | 69 | 39.7% | 74.4 | -1.8 | 75 |
Tulane | 71.6 | 76 | 47.8% | 73.4 | -1.8 | 76 |
Houston | 72.4 | 72 | 40.6% | 74.3 | -1.9 | 77 |
NC State | 71.0 | 78 | 52.1% | 72.9 | -1.9 | 78 |
Ball State | 70.8 | 80 | 52.5% | 72.8 | -2.0 | 79 |
Army | 66.8 | 106 | 85.6% | 68.8 | -2.0 | 80 |
Massachusetts | 72.5 | 71 | 38.4% | 74.6 | -2.1 | 81 |
Temple | 71.0 | 78 | 50.0% | 73.1 | -2.1 | 82 |
Navy | 67.5 | 102 | 78.5% | 69.7 | -2.2 | 83 |
Missouri | 70.4 | 85 | 52.6% | 72.8 | -2.4 | 84 |
UTSA | 70.2 | 88 | 53.6% | 72.7 | -2.5 | 85 |
Purdue | 70.5 | 84 | 48.7% | 73.3 | -2.8 | 86 |
Georgia Tech | 67.0 | 104 | 77.0% | 69.9 | -2.9 | 87 |
Texas | 70.2 | 88 | 49.6% | 73.2 | -3.0 | 88 |
UNLV | 70.3 | 86 | 48.3% | 73.3 | -3.0 | 89 |
SMU | 72.2 | 74 | 31.9% | 75.3 | -3.1 | 90 |
Arkansas | 67.8 | 99 | 68.1% | 71.0 | -3.2 | 91 |
UTEP | 68.2 | 96 | 63.3% | 71.5 | -3.3 | 92 |
Oregon | 69.4 | 93 | 52.7% | 72.8 | -3.4 | 93 |
Old Dominion | 70.7 | 81 | 41.3% | 74.2 | -3.5 | 94 |
UL-Lafayette | 69.6 | 92 | 47.1% | 73.5 | -3.9 | 95 |
Southern Miss | 70.7 | 81 | 38.2% | 74.6 | -3.9 | 96 |
Georgia Southern | 65.7 | 110 | 79.2% | 69.6 | -4.0 | 97 |
Florida State | 69.8 | 91 | 41.8% | 74.1 | -4.3 | 98 |
Western Michigan | 68.4 | 95 | 51.8% | 72.9 | -4.5 | 99 |
Oregon State | 69.4 | 93 | 43.2% | 74.0 | -4.6 | 100 |
Maryland | 68.2 | 97 | 47.9% | 73.4 | -5.2 | 101 |
New Mexico | 64.2 | 120 | 80.7% | 69.4 | -5.2 | 102 |
Florida International | 67.3 | 103 | 50.2% | 73.1 | -5.8 | 103 |
Rutgers | 66.0 | 108 | 58.8% | 72.1 | -6.1 | 104 |
Troy | 67.6 | 100 | 45.6% | 73.7 | -6.1 | 105 |
Colorado State | 67.6 | 100 | 44.1% | 73.9 | -6.3 | 106 |
Minnesota | 64.4 | 119 | 70.5% | 70.7 | -6.3 | 107 |
San Diego State | 66.4 | 107 | 53.6% | 72.7 | -6.3 | 108 |
North Texas | 65.2 | 114 | 60.7% | 71.9 | -6.7 | 109 |
Eastern Michigan | 65.6 | 112 | 55.5% | 72.5 | -6.9 | 110 |
Illinois | 68.0 | 98 | 35.0% | 75.0 | -7.0 | 111 |
Iowa State | 67.0 | 104 | 43.3% | 74.0 | -7.0 | 112 |
Georgia | 64.6 | 118 | 61.9% | 71.7 | -7.1 | 113 |
Louisiana Tech | 65.7 | 110 | 49.0% | 73.3 | -7.6 | 114 |
Wyoming | 65.0 | 115 | 50.8% | 73.1 | -8.1 | 115 |
Stanford | 64.8 | 126 | 50.3% | 73.1 | -8.3 | 116 |
Central Michigan | 64.2 | 121 | 54.3% | 72.6 | -8.5 | 117 |
Kent State | 66.0 | 108 | 39.1% | 74.5 | -8.5 | 118 |
Connecticut | 64.8 | 116 | 47.5% | 73.4 | -8.6 | 119 |
Ohio | 63.3 | 122 | 55.0% | 72.5 | -9.2 | 120 |
Cincinnati | 65.3 | 113 | 38.7% | 74.5 | -9.3 | 121 |
Michigan | 62.3 | 124 | 54.0% | 72.7 | -10.3 | 122 |
Florida Atlantic | 62.7 | 123 | 50.3% | 73.1 | -10.4 | 123 |
Central Florida | 59.5 | 127 | 58.4% | 72.1 | -12.6 | 124 |
Miami-FL | 60.7 | 126 | 46.2% | 73.6 | -12.9 | 125 |
Wake Forest | 61.2 | 125 | 39.5% | 74.4 | -13.2 | 126 |
South Florida | 58.0 | 128 | 55.9% | 72.4 | -14.4 | 127 |
Vanderbilt | 58.0 | 128 | 49.7% | 73.2 | -15.2 | 128 |
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