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Pace in college football (through six weeks of 2014)

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Who are most up-tempo offenses in college football in 2014?

By Bill C.
21 comments / new
Brendan Maloney-USA TODAY Sports

Since I've been talking about pace adjustments in my F/+ picks the last couple of weeks, I thought it might be interesting go ahead and share the pace numbers I've been using. They're imperfect (isn't everything), but I like them quite a bit.

Instead of focusing on plays per minute or simply plays per game, I've always looked at pace at least partially as a function of run-pass ratio. Running plays are less likely, on average, to result in a stopped clock, simply because of the lack of incomplete passes. So in theory, if you run a lot, even if you go at mach speed you're not going to end up with as many plays per game as a pass-happy team like Washington State.

So basically, I use run-pass ratio to create what is basically an Expected Plays Per Game figure, then compare it to the actual plays. You could go much further with this if you take incomplete passes into account, or charting data that talks about runs to the edge, or whatever. But this works perfectly fine for my needs.

Here are your pace figures for college football in 2014 through four weeks. Teams are ranked in order of the difference between expected and actual plays. Who is actually the most up-tempo team in college football?

Yeah, it's still Baylor. And Vanderbilt is the slowest. Advanced stats sometimes do give you the answer you're expecting.

Offense Plays Per Game Rk % Run Expected Plays Per Game Diff Rk
Baylor 86.4 3 56.7% 72.3 14.1 1
West Virginia 86.6 2 47.6% 73.4 13.2 2
Colorado 86.8 1 41.7% 74.2 12.7 3
Arizona 85.8 4 48.7% 73.3 12.5 4
Tulsa 85.6 6 42.3% 74.1 11.5 5
Western Kentucky 85.8 4 37.8% 74.6 11.2 6
Arkansas State 83.6 8 54.3% 72.6 11.0 7
Bowling Green 84.0 7 43.5% 73.9 10.1 8
Hawaii 83.4 9 46.8% 73.5 9.9 9
Memphis 81.6 14 59.6% 72.0 9.6 10
UAB 81.2 15 61.6% 71.7 9.5 11
USC 82.0 13 52.4% 72.9 9.1 12
Indiana 81.0 16 59.3% 72.0 9.0 13
TCU 82.8 11 44.4% 73.8 8.9 14
Idaho 83.4 9 36.9% 74.7 8.7 15
Clemson 81.0 16 53.3% 72.7 8.3 16
Fresno State 81.0 16 46.3% 73.6 7.4 17
Texas State 79.2 20 57.3% 72.3 6.9 18
Virginia Tech 79.3 19 51.5% 73.0 6.4 19
Air Force 76.0 41 77.9% 69.8 6.2 20
Ohio State 77.8 26 61.2% 71.8 6.0 21
Boise State 79.2 22 48.8% 73.3 5.9 22
Washington State 82.2 12 22.3% 76.5 5.7 23
BYU 78.2 24 55.0% 72.5 5.7 24
New Mexico State 78.7 23 48.7% 73.3 5.4 25
Nebraska 77.0 33 61.7% 71.7 5.3 26
Mississippi State 77.0 33 61.3% 71.8 5.2 27
Alabama 77.4 31 57.4% 72.3 5.1 28
Buffalo 77.8 25 53.3% 72.7 5.1 29
Michigan State 76.2 39 62.7% 71.6 4.6 30
Florida 77.5 29 51.3% 73.0 4.5 31
Rice 76.4 37 60.2% 71.9 4.5 32
Arizona State 77.8 26 46.8% 73.5 4.3 33
Middle Tennessee 76.3 38 58.7% 72.1 4.2 34
Northern Illinois 75.5 44 63.6% 71.5 4.0 35
Duke 77.2 32 47.7% 73.4 3.8 36
Marshall 76.2 39 55.1% 72.5 3.7 37
Tennessee 77.6 28 42.5% 74.1 3.5 38
Virginia 76.0 41 53.9% 72.7 3.3 39
Nevada 75.8 43 55.1% 72.5 3.3 40
Washington 74.8 50 63.1% 71.6 3.2 41
Utah 75.2 47 58.8% 72.1 3.1 42
Texas A&M 77.5 29 39.4% 74.4 3.1 43
North Carolina 76.8 35 44.0% 73.9 2.9 44
Boston College 73.6 61 69.3% 70.8 2.8 45
San Jose State 75.4 45 53.1% 72.8 2.6 46
East Carolina 76.8 35 38.0% 74.6 2.2 47
Louisville 75.2 48 51.4% 73.0 2.2 48
Oklahoma State 75.0 49 52.8% 72.8 2.2 49
Northwestern 75.4 45 49.3% 73.2 2.2 50
Appalachian State 74.6 52 49.3% 73.2 1.4 51
Auburn 72.6 75 65.3% 71.3 1.3 52
California 74.8 50 46.5% 73.6 1.2 53
South Alabama 74.0 54 51.4% 73.0 1.0 54
Ole Miss 74.2 53 49.6% 73.2 1.0 55
Iowa 74.0 54 50.8% 73.1 0.9 56
UCLA 73.8 57 51.2% 73.0 0.8 57
Toledo 73.7 59 52.0% 72.9 0.8 58
Kansas 73.0 67 57.3% 72.3 0.7 59
Kentucky 73.6 61 50.8% 73.0 0.6 60
South Carolina 73.7 59 49.1% 73.3 0.4 61
Utah State 73.6 61 48.6% 73.3 0.3 62
Oklahoma 72.8 74 51.9% 72.9 -0.1 63
Georgia State 73.6 61 44.3% 73.8 -0.2 64
Penn State 73.6 61 40.2% 74.3 -0.7 65
Akron 74.0 54 35.9% 74.8 -0.8 66
Syracuse 72.0 75 52.2% 72.9 -0.9 67
Kansas State 71.6 76 55.3% 72.5 -0.9 68
Pittsburgh 70.7 81 62.7% 71.6 -0.9 69
Notre Dame 72.4 72 48.3% 73.3 -0.9 70
LSU 70.3 86 64.5% 71.4 -1.1 71
Miami-OH 73.3 60 38.9% 74.5 -1.2 72
Texas Tech 73.8 51 34.1% 75.1 -1.3 73
Wisconsin 70.0 90 65.1% 71.3 -1.3 74
UL-Monroe 72.6 69 39.7% 74.4 -1.8 75
Tulane 71.6 76 47.8% 73.4 -1.8 76
Houston 72.4 72 40.6% 74.3 -1.9 77
NC State 71.0 78 52.1% 72.9 -1.9 78
Ball State 70.8 80 52.5% 72.8 -2.0 79
Army 66.8 106 85.6% 68.8 -2.0 80
Massachusetts 72.5 71 38.4% 74.6 -2.1 81
Temple 71.0 78 50.0% 73.1 -2.1 82
Navy 67.5 102 78.5% 69.7 -2.2 83
Missouri 70.4 85 52.6% 72.8 -2.4 84
UTSA 70.2 88 53.6% 72.7 -2.5 85
Purdue 70.5 84 48.7% 73.3 -2.8 86
Georgia Tech 67.0 104 77.0% 69.9 -2.9 87
Texas 70.2 88 49.6% 73.2 -3.0 88
UNLV 70.3 86 48.3% 73.3 -3.0 89
SMU 72.2 74 31.9% 75.3 -3.1 90
Arkansas 67.8 99 68.1% 71.0 -3.2 91
UTEP 68.2 96 63.3% 71.5 -3.3 92
Oregon 69.4 93 52.7% 72.8 -3.4 93
Old Dominion 70.7 81 41.3% 74.2 -3.5 94
UL-Lafayette 69.6 92 47.1% 73.5 -3.9 95
Southern Miss 70.7 81 38.2% 74.6 -3.9 96
Georgia Southern 65.7 110 79.2% 69.6 -4.0 97
Florida State 69.8 91 41.8% 74.1 -4.3 98
Western Michigan 68.4 95 51.8% 72.9 -4.5 99
Oregon State 69.4 93 43.2% 74.0 -4.6 100
Maryland 68.2 97 47.9% 73.4 -5.2 101
New Mexico 64.2 120 80.7% 69.4 -5.2 102
Florida International 67.3 103 50.2% 73.1 -5.8 103
Rutgers 66.0 108 58.8% 72.1 -6.1 104
Troy 67.6 100 45.6% 73.7 -6.1 105
Colorado State 67.6 100 44.1% 73.9 -6.3 106
Minnesota 64.4 119 70.5% 70.7 -6.3 107
San Diego State 66.4 107 53.6% 72.7 -6.3 108
North Texas 65.2 114 60.7% 71.9 -6.7 109
Eastern Michigan 65.6 112 55.5% 72.5 -6.9 110
Illinois 68.0 98 35.0% 75.0 -7.0 111
Iowa State 67.0 104 43.3% 74.0 -7.0 112
Georgia 64.6 118 61.9% 71.7 -7.1 113
Louisiana Tech 65.7 110 49.0% 73.3 -7.6 114
Wyoming 65.0 115 50.8% 73.1 -8.1 115
Stanford 64.8 126 50.3% 73.1 -8.3 116
Central Michigan 64.2 121 54.3% 72.6 -8.5 117
Kent State 66.0 108 39.1% 74.5 -8.5 118
Connecticut 64.8 116 47.5% 73.4 -8.6 119
Ohio 63.3 122 55.0% 72.5 -9.2 120
Cincinnati 65.3 113 38.7% 74.5 -9.3 121
Michigan 62.3 124 54.0% 72.7 -10.3 122
Florida Atlantic 62.7 123 50.3% 73.1 -10.4 123
Central Florida 59.5 127 58.4% 72.1 -12.6 124
Miami-FL 60.7 126 46.2% 73.6 -12.9 125
Wake Forest 61.2 125 39.5% 74.4 -13.2 126
South Florida 58.0 128 55.9% 72.4 -14.4 127
Vanderbilt 58.0 128 49.7% 73.2 -15.2 128

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