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It's a BRAND NEW GAME, FOLKS. NEW DAY. Wipe the records clean! (No, please, wipe the records clean.)
Last week, I finally came up with a pace adjustment that I liked, and *POOF*, F/+ had its best week against the spread all season. And in the craziest weekend of the year, no less. In fact, I'm adding a new row to this table just so I can pretend the first five weeks of the season didn't actually happen!
| Week 6 | 2014 Season | |
| "NEW" Method | 33-23-1 (59%) | 162-168-5 (49%) |
| "OLD" Method | 29-27-1 (52%) | 141-144-4 (49%) |
| When Both Methods Agree | 27-21 (56%) | 90-94-2 (49%) |
| "NEW" Method w/Pace Adjustment | 33-23-1 (59%) | 33-23-1 (59%) |
59% for the season! Doesn't it feel great?? EVERYTHING'S COMING UP F/+.
(Shut up, let me enjoy this.)
Meanwhile, the win probability numbers did well, too, despite the weekend craziness. I was hoping for some regression-to-the-mean, both for the close picks (teams with a 50-70% chance of winning were winning a bit less than I'd like) and the blowout picks (teams with a 70%+ chance of winning were winning a bit too much), and I more or less got it. And for the season as a whole, teams in each range below are fitting about where they're supposed to.
| Week 6 | 2014 Season | |
| Teams with 50-60% chance of winning | 5-2 (71%) | 17-13 (57%) |
| Teams with 60-70% chance of winning | 11-6 (65%) | 54-33 (62%) |
| Teams with 70-80% chance of winning | 16-4 (80%) | 84-19 (82%) |
| Teams with 80-90% chance of winning | 5-4 (56%) | 77-13 (86%) |
| Teams with 90-100% chance of winning | 4-0 (100%) | 63-2 (97%) |
FBS vs. FBS
Okay, so after last week's semi-intentional ridiculousness in terms of score projections, I decided to actually be sane with them this week. They are still pace-adjusted, but there aren't many 67-40 games in there this time around.
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | ESPN | BYU at Central Florida | -3 | BYU by 5.3 (36.3 - 31.0) | 63.6% | BYU | BYU by 5.7 | BYU | |
| Fri | 9:00 PM | ESPN | Washington State at Stanford | -17 | Stanford by 20.2 (27.2 - 6.9) | 81.8% | Stanford | Stanford by 17.1 | Stanford | |
| Fri | 9:30 PM | ESPNU | San Diego State at New Mexico | 4.5 | New Mexico by 2.6 (29.8 - 27.3) | 59.9% | New Mexico | New Mexico by 1.5 | New Mexico | |
| Fri | 10:00 PM | CBSSN | Fresno State at UNLV | 10 | Fresno State by 3.6 (33.0 - 29.3) | 60.7% | UNLV | Fresno State by 3.8 | UNLV | |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN | Florida State at Syracuse | 23.5 | Florida State by 21.7 (40.3 - 18.6) | 83.0% | Syracuse | Florida State by 20.1 | Syracuse | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | CBSSN | Rice at Army | -1 | Army by 1.7 (40.7 - 39.0) | 58.2% | Army | Army by 0.5 | Rice | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Indiana at Iowa | -3.5 | Iowa by 14.3 (36.9 - 22.6) | 73.2% | Iowa | Iowa by 10.1 | Iowa | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | Northwestern at Minnesota | -4 | Minnesota by 6.3 (19.5 - 13.2) | 65.0% | Minnesota | Minnesota by 4.6 | Minnesota | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Cincinnati at Miami-FL | -14.5 | Miami-FL by 18.2 (36.6 - 18.4) | 82.1% | Miami-FL | Miami-FL by 17.3 | Miami-FL | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ABC | Texas vs. Oklahoma | -14.5 | Oklahoma by 31.8 (40.4 - 8.6) | 91.5% | Oklahoma | Oklahoma by 28.6 | Oklahoma | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN News | Tulsa at Temple | -17.5 | Temple by 28.1 (45.2 - 17.1) | 85.9% | Temple | Temple by 21.0 | Temple | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | FSN | Middle Tennessee at Marshall | -24.5 | Marshall by 44.0 (56.0 - 12.0) | 95.3% | Marshall | Marshall by 33.8 | Marshall | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Illinois at Wisconsin | -26 | Wisconsin by 22.2 (37.6 - 15.4) | 84.3% | Illinois | Wisconsin by 19.4 | Illinois | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | CBS | Georgia at Missouri | 3 | Georgia by 0.2 (27.9 - 27.7) | 55.9% | Missouri | Georgia by 1.1 | Missouri | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | SECN | UL-Monroe at Kentucky | -21.5 | Kentucky by 33.8 (43.7 - 9.9) | 91.5% | Kentucky | Kentucky by 27.5 | Kentucky | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | FS1 | West Virginia at Texas Tech | 6 | West Virginia by 17.8 (50.5 - 32.8) | 76.0% | West Virginia | West Virginia by 14.2 | West Virginia | |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Duke at Georgia Tech | -3 | Georgia Tech by 21.4 (44.4 - 23.0) | 82.1% | Georgia Tech | Georgia Tech by 17.4 | Georgia Tech | |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Buffalo at Eastern Michigan | 14.5 | Buffalo by 16.2 (34.7 - 18.4) | 76.9% | Buffalo | Buffalo by 14.9 | Buffalo | |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Massachusetts at Kent State | 2 | Kent State by 4.2 (23.9 - 19.7) | 62.8% | Kent State | Kent State by 3.2 | Kent State | |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Miami-OH at Akron | -14.5 | Akron by 17.2 (32.7 - 15.5) | 78.7% | Akron | Akron by 14.4 | Miami-OH | XXX |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Arkansas State at Georgia State | 9.5 | Arkansas State by 7.5 (39.1 - 31.5) | 65.5% | Georgia State | Arkansas State by 6.8 | Georgia State | |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Bowling Green at Ohio | 0 | Ohio by 5.2 (36.1 - 30.9) | 62.8% | Ohio | Ohio by 3.3 | Ohio | |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | New Mexico State at Troy | -7.5 | New Mexico State by 0.7 (30.3 - 29.6) | 56.7% | New Mexico State | New Mexico State by 1.5 | New Mexico State | |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Western Michigan at Ball State | 0 | Western Michigan by 7.6 (30.2 - 22.6) | 66.6% | Western Michigan | Western Michigan by 7.5 | Western Michigan | |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Michigan State at Purdue | 21 | Michigan State by 28.3 (44.4 - 16.0) | 87.3% | Michigan State | Michigan State by 24.4 | Michigan State | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Boston College at NC State | -3.5 | Boston College by 5.3 (39.1 - 33.7) | 63.2% | Boston College | Boston College by 5.4 | Boston College | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBS | Auburn at Mississippi State | 3 | Mississippi State by 7.8 (35.6 - 27.9) | 66.2% | Mississippi State | Mississippi State by 5.4 | Mississippi State | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPNU | Louisville at Clemson | -10 | Clemson by 3.9 (20.9 - 17.0) | 60.9% | Louisville | Clemson by 2.1 | Louisville | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | NBC | North Carolina at Notre Dame | -17 | Notre Dame by 37.1 (50.6 - 13.5) | 92.8% | Notre Dame | Notre Dame by 29.5 | Notre Dame | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CSCN+ | North Texas at UAB | -6.5 | UAB by 27.5 (42.8 - 15.3) | 87.3% | UAB | UAB by 22.5 | UAB | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Fox | Oregon at UCLA | 3 | UCLA by 1.1 (34.4 - 33.3) | 57.3% | UCLA | UCLA by 0.0 | UCLA | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | TCU at Baylor | -8 | Baylor by 6.2 (36.7 - 30.5) | 63.1% | TCU | Baylor by 3.4 | TCU | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Toledo at Iowa State | -3 | Iowa State by 5.7 (36.5 - 30.8) | 64.3% | Iowa State | Iowa State by 4.2 | Iowa State | ||
| Sat | 4:00 PM | FS1 | Oklahoma State at Kansas | 21 | Oklahoma State by 26.6 (36.4 - 9.9) | 85.9% | Oklahoma State | Oklahoma State by 22.9 | Oklahoma State | |
| Sat | 5:00 PM | ESPN3 | Central Michigan at Northern Illinois | -9 | Northern Illinois by 13.9 (32.2 - 18.3) | 74.7% | Northern Illinois | Northern Illinois by 11.3 | Northern Illinois | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | ESPN | Alabama at Arkansas | 10.5 | Alabama by 14.2 (41.9 - 27.7) | 74.2% | Alabama | Alabama by 12.8 | Alabama | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | Idaho at Georgia Southern | -23 | Georgia Southern by 27.8 (45.2 - 17.5) | 88.0% | Georgia Southern | Georgia Southern by 23.2 | Georgia Southern | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | Pac-12 | Washington at California | -3.5 | California by 18.9 (49.8 - 30.8) | 78.7% | California | California by 14.4 | California | |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPNU | East Carolina at South Florida | 15 | East Carolina by 26.4 (40.3 - 13.9) | 88.6% | East Carolina | East Carolina by 25.9 | East Carolina | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | FCS | Florida International at UTSA | -12 | UTSA by 10.2 (23.3 - 13.2) | 70.5% | Florida International | UTSA by 8.2 | Florida International | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | CBSSN | Houston at Memphis | -9 | Memphis by 25.0 (35.9 - 11.0) | 84.6% | Memphis | Memphis by 19.7 | Memphis | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | Penn State at Michigan | -1 | Penn State by 4.9 (22.3 - 17.4) | 63.4% | Penn State | Penn State by 5.5 | Penn State | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | SECN | LSU at Florida | 2 | LSU by 5.0 (31.3 - 26.3) | 62.6% | LSU | LSU by 5.0 | LSU | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ESPN News | Connecticut at Tulane | -3 | Tulane by 7.7 (23.1 - 15.4) | 67.6% | Tulane | Tulane by 6.3 | Tulane | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | CSCN+ | Old Dominion at UTEP | -3 | UTEP by 3.5 (31.7 - 28.2) | 61.1% | UTEP | UTEP by 2.2 | Old Dominion | XXX |
| Sat | 9:00 PM | ESPN | Ole Miss at Texas A&M | -2 | Ole Miss by 10.1 (32.6 - 22.5) | 69.3% | Ole Miss | Ole Miss by 9.3 | Ole Miss | |
| Sat | 10:15 PM | ESPNU | Air Force at Utah State | -7 | Air Force by 0.5 (24.7 - 24.2) | 56.4% | Air Force | Air Force by 1.4 | Air Force | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | CBSSN | Colorado State at Nevada | 2 | Nevada by 2.2 (33.2 - 31.0) | 59.0% | Nevada | Nevada by 0.9 | Nevada | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | ESPN2 | USC at Arizona | 3 | Arizona by 8.6 (41.7 - 33.2) | 66.2% | Arizona | Arizona by 5.4 | Arizona | |
| Sun | 12:00 AM | MWC Video | Wyoming at Hawaii | -5 | Hawaii by 12.8 (27.0 - 14.2) | 72.4% | Hawaii | Hawaii by 9.6 | Hawaii |
FBS vs. FCS
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Prediction | Chance of winning |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Liberty at Appalachian State | Liberty by 8.9 (31.4 - 22.5) | 67.9% |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBSSN | VMI at Navy | Navy by 71.9 (61.5 - -10.4) | 98.6% |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | SECN | Chattanooga at Tennessee | Tennessee by 29.6 (37.4 - 7.8) | 87.7% |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | ESPN3 | Charleston S'ern at Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt by 12.8 (24.7 - 11.8) | 75.4% |
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