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College football projections: Week 7 F/+ picks

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Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

It's a BRAND NEW GAME, FOLKS. NEW DAY. Wipe the records clean! (No, please, wipe the records clean.)

Last week, I finally came up with a pace adjustment that I liked, and *POOF*, F/+ had its best week against the spread all season. And in the craziest weekend of the year, no less. In fact, I'm adding a new row to this table just so I can pretend the first five weeks of the season didn't actually happen!

Week 6 2014 Season
"NEW" Method 33-23-1 (59%) 162-168-5 (49%)
"OLD" Method 29-27-1 (52%) 141-144-4 (49%)
When Both Methods Agree 27-21 (56%) 90-94-2 (49%)
"NEW" Method w/Pace Adjustment 33-23-1 (59%) 33-23-1 (59%)

59% for the season! Doesn't it feel great?? EVERYTHING'S COMING UP F/+.

(Shut up, let me enjoy this.)

Meanwhile, the win probability numbers did well, too, despite the weekend craziness. I was hoping for some regression-to-the-mean, both for the close picks (teams with a 50-70% chance of winning were winning a bit less than I'd like) and the blowout picks (teams with a 70%+ chance of winning were winning a bit too much), and I more or less got it. And for the season as a whole, teams in each range below are fitting about where they're supposed to.

Week 6 2014 Season
Teams with 50-60% chance of winning 5-2 (71%) 17-13 (57%)
Teams with 60-70% chance of winning 11-6 (65%) 54-33 (62%)
Teams with 70-80% chance of winning 16-4 (80%) 84-19 (82%)
Teams with 80-90% chance of winning 5-4 (56%) 77-13 (86%)
Teams with 90-100% chance of winning 4-0 (100%) 63-2 (97%)

FBS vs. FBS

Okay, so after last week's semi-intentional ridiculousness in terms of score projections, I decided to actually be sane with them this week. They are still pace-adjusted, but there aren't many 67-40 games in there this time around.

Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Thu 7:30 PM ESPN BYU at Central Florida -3 BYU by 5.3 (36.3 - 31.0) 63.6% BYU BYU by 5.7 BYU
Fri 9:00 PM ESPN Washington State at Stanford -17 Stanford by 20.2 (27.2 - 6.9) 81.8% Stanford Stanford by 17.1 Stanford
Fri 9:30 PM ESPNU San Diego State at New Mexico 4.5 New Mexico by 2.6 (29.8 - 27.3) 59.9% New Mexico New Mexico by 1.5 New Mexico
Fri 10:00 PM CBSSN Fresno State at UNLV 10 Fresno State by 3.6 (33.0 - 29.3) 60.7% UNLV Fresno State by 3.8 UNLV
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN Florida State at Syracuse 23.5 Florida State by 21.7 (40.3 - 18.6) 83.0% Syracuse Florida State by 20.1 Syracuse
Sat 12:00 PM CBSSN Rice at Army -1 Army by 1.7 (40.7 - 39.0) 58.2% Army Army by 0.5 Rice XXX
Sat 12:00 PM ESPNU Indiana at Iowa -3.5 Iowa by 14.3 (36.9 - 22.6) 73.2% Iowa Iowa by 10.1 Iowa
Sat 12:00 PM BTN Northwestern at Minnesota -4 Minnesota by 6.3 (19.5 - 13.2) 65.0% Minnesota Minnesota by 4.6 Minnesota
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 Cincinnati at Miami-FL -14.5 Miami-FL by 18.2 (36.6 - 18.4) 82.1% Miami-FL Miami-FL by 17.3 Miami-FL
Sat 12:00 PM ABC Texas vs. Oklahoma -14.5 Oklahoma by 31.8 (40.4 - 8.6) 91.5% Oklahoma Oklahoma by 28.6 Oklahoma
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN News Tulsa at Temple -17.5 Temple by 28.1 (45.2 - 17.1) 85.9% Temple Temple by 21.0 Temple
Sat 12:00 PM FSN Middle Tennessee at Marshall -24.5 Marshall by 44.0 (56.0 - 12.0) 95.3% Marshall Marshall by 33.8 Marshall
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN2 Illinois at Wisconsin -26 Wisconsin by 22.2 (37.6 - 15.4) 84.3% Illinois Wisconsin by 19.4 Illinois
Sat 12:00 PM CBS Georgia at Missouri 3 Georgia by 0.2 (27.9 - 27.7) 55.9% Missouri Georgia by 1.1 Missouri
Sat 12:00 PM SECN UL-Monroe at Kentucky -21.5 Kentucky by 33.8 (43.7 - 9.9) 91.5% Kentucky Kentucky by 27.5 Kentucky
Sat 12:00 PM FS1 West Virginia at Texas Tech 6 West Virginia by 17.8 (50.5 - 32.8) 76.0% West Virginia West Virginia by 14.2 West Virginia
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 Duke at Georgia Tech -3 Georgia Tech by 21.4 (44.4 - 23.0) 82.1% Georgia Tech Georgia Tech by 17.4 Georgia Tech
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN3 Buffalo at Eastern Michigan 14.5 Buffalo by 16.2 (34.7 - 18.4) 76.9% Buffalo Buffalo by 14.9 Buffalo
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Massachusetts at Kent State 2 Kent State by 4.2 (23.9 - 19.7) 62.8% Kent State Kent State by 3.2 Kent State
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Miami-OH at Akron -14.5 Akron by 17.2 (32.7 - 15.5) 78.7% Akron Akron by 14.4 Miami-OH XXX
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Arkansas State at Georgia State 9.5 Arkansas State by 7.5 (39.1 - 31.5) 65.5% Georgia State Arkansas State by 6.8 Georgia State
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Bowling Green at Ohio 0 Ohio by 5.2 (36.1 - 30.9) 62.8% Ohio Ohio by 3.3 Ohio
Sat 3:00 PM ESPN3 New Mexico State at Troy -7.5 New Mexico State by 0.7 (30.3 - 29.6) 56.7% New Mexico State New Mexico State by 1.5 New Mexico State
Sat 3:00 PM ESPN3 Western Michigan at Ball State 0 Western Michigan by 7.6 (30.2 - 22.6) 66.6% Western Michigan Western Michigan by 7.5 Western Michigan
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Michigan State at Purdue 21 Michigan State by 28.3 (44.4 - 16.0) 87.3% Michigan State Michigan State by 24.4 Michigan State
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Boston College at NC State -3.5 Boston College by 5.3 (39.1 - 33.7) 63.2% Boston College Boston College by 5.4 Boston College
Sat 3:30 PM CBS Auburn at Mississippi State 3 Mississippi State by 7.8 (35.6 - 27.9) 66.2% Mississippi State Mississippi State by 5.4 Mississippi State
Sat 3:30 PM ESPNU Louisville at Clemson -10 Clemson by 3.9 (20.9 - 17.0) 60.9% Louisville Clemson by 2.1 Louisville
Sat 3:30 PM NBC North Carolina at Notre Dame -17 Notre Dame by 37.1 (50.6 - 13.5) 92.8% Notre Dame Notre Dame by 29.5 Notre Dame
Sat 3:30 PM CSCN+ North Texas at UAB -6.5 UAB by 27.5 (42.8 - 15.3) 87.3% UAB UAB by 22.5 UAB
Sat 3:30 PM Fox Oregon at UCLA 3 UCLA by 1.1 (34.4 - 33.3) 57.3% UCLA UCLA by 0.0 UCLA
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 TCU at Baylor -8 Baylor by 6.2 (36.7 - 30.5) 63.1% TCU Baylor by 3.4 TCU
Sat 3:30 PM Toledo at Iowa State -3 Iowa State by 5.7 (36.5 - 30.8) 64.3% Iowa State Iowa State by 4.2 Iowa State
Sat 4:00 PM FS1 Oklahoma State at Kansas 21 Oklahoma State by 26.6 (36.4 - 9.9) 85.9% Oklahoma State Oklahoma State by 22.9 Oklahoma State
Sat 5:00 PM ESPN3 Central Michigan at Northern Illinois -9 Northern Illinois by 13.9 (32.2 - 18.3) 74.7% Northern Illinois Northern Illinois by 11.3 Northern Illinois
Sat 6:00 PM ESPN Alabama at Arkansas 10.5 Alabama by 14.2 (41.9 - 27.7) 74.2% Alabama Alabama by 12.8 Alabama
Sat 6:00 PM ESPN3 Idaho at Georgia Southern -23 Georgia Southern by 27.8 (45.2 - 17.5) 88.0% Georgia Southern Georgia Southern by 23.2 Georgia Southern
Sat 6:00 PM Pac-12 Washington at California -3.5 California by 18.9 (49.8 - 30.8) 78.7% California California by 14.4 California
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Sat 7:00 PM ESPNU East Carolina at South Florida 15 East Carolina by 26.4 (40.3 - 13.9) 88.6% East Carolina East Carolina by 25.9 East Carolina
Sat 7:00 PM FCS Florida International at UTSA -12 UTSA by 10.2 (23.3 - 13.2) 70.5% Florida International UTSA by 8.2 Florida International
Sat 7:00 PM CBSSN Houston at Memphis -9 Memphis by 25.0 (35.9 - 11.0) 84.6% Memphis Memphis by 19.7 Memphis
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN2 Penn State at Michigan -1 Penn State by 4.9 (22.3 - 17.4) 63.4% Penn State Penn State by 5.5 Penn State
Sat 7:30 PM SECN LSU at Florida 2 LSU by 5.0 (31.3 - 26.3) 62.6% LSU LSU by 5.0 LSU
Sat 8:00 PM ESPN News Connecticut at Tulane -3 Tulane by 7.7 (23.1 - 15.4) 67.6% Tulane Tulane by 6.3 Tulane
Sat 8:00 PM CSCN+ Old Dominion at UTEP -3 UTEP by 3.5 (31.7 - 28.2) 61.1% UTEP UTEP by 2.2 Old Dominion XXX
Sat 9:00 PM ESPN Ole Miss at Texas A&M -2 Ole Miss by 10.1 (32.6 - 22.5) 69.3% Ole Miss Ole Miss by 9.3 Ole Miss
Sat 10:15 PM ESPNU Air Force at Utah State -7 Air Force by 0.5 (24.7 - 24.2) 56.4% Air Force Air Force by 1.4 Air Force
Sat 10:30 PM CBSSN Colorado State at Nevada 2 Nevada by 2.2 (33.2 - 31.0) 59.0% Nevada Nevada by 0.9 Nevada
Sat 10:30 PM ESPN2 USC at Arizona 3 Arizona by 8.6 (41.7 - 33.2) 66.2% Arizona Arizona by 5.4 Arizona
Sun 12:00 AM MWC Video Wyoming at Hawaii -5 Hawaii by 12.8 (27.0 - 14.2) 72.4% Hawaii Hawaii by 9.6 Hawaii

FBS vs. FCS

Day Time (ET) TV Game Prediction Chance of winning
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Liberty at Appalachian State Liberty by 8.9 (31.4 - 22.5) 67.9%
Sat 3:30 PM CBSSN VMI at Navy Navy by 71.9 (61.5 - -10.4) 98.6%
Sat 4:00 PM SECN Chattanooga at Tennessee Tennessee by 29.6 (37.4 - 7.8) 87.7%
Sat 7:30 PM ESPN3 Charleston S'ern at Vanderbilt Vanderbilt by 12.8 (24.7 - 11.8) 75.4%