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Study Hall: Louisville 28, Syracuse 6

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Brett Carlsen

Louisville 28, Syracuse 6

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Louisville Syracuse Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 70 65
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 85.9%
Avg Starting FP 38.9 24.2 29.7
Possessions 14 14
Scoring Opportunities*
7 2
Points Per Opportunity 3.43 3.00 4.69
Leverage Rate** 51.4% 61.5% 68.4%
Close S&P*** 0.492 0.400 0.508
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Louisville Syracuse
Total 22.2 14.1
Rushing 12.8 2.8
Passing 9.4 11.4
Success Rate (what's this?) Louisville Syracuse Nat'l Avg
All (close) 40.0% 28.6% 42.2%
Rushing (close) 38.9% 38.1% 43.6%
Passing (close) 41.7% 22.9% 40.7%
Standard Downs 47.2% 35.0% 47.5%
Passing Downs 29.2% 12.5% 30.7%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Louisville Syracuse Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.86 0.86 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.80 0.34 0.73
Passing (close) 0.94 1.37 0.99
Standard Downs 0.70 0.65 0.77
Passing Downs 1.26 2.34 1.14
Line Stats Louisville Syracuse Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.34 2.39 2.93
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 4.4% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 23.1% 0.0% 7.3%
Turnovers Louisville Syracuse
Turnovers 2 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 7.3 8.3
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Syracuse +0.14
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Louisville +0.14
TO Points Margin Louisville +1.0 points
Situational Louisville Syracuse
Q1 S&P 0.578 0.433
Q2 S&P 0.322 0.415
Q3 S&P 0.514 0.472
Q4 S&P 0.493 0.234
1st Down S&P 0.452 0.360
2nd Down S&P 0.472 0.426
3rd Down S&P 0.552 0.442
Projected Scoring Margin: Louisville by 9.1
Actual Scoring Margin: Louisville by 22

Strange game. Well, I guess any game with two safeties is weird. Still. If Louisville could have actually taken advantage of scoring opportunities, they wouldn't have had to wait until the fourth quarter to pull away. But if Syracuse had been just a little bit better through the air (particularly on passing downs) -- "below average" instead of "train wreck" -- the Orange could have stuck around even longer.

In the end, Louisville proved one specific thing: it's a lot easier to start a freshman quarterback and get away with it when your defense is really good.