Louisville 28, Syracuse 6
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|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||85.9%|
|Avg Starting FP||38.9||24.2||29.7|
|Points Per Opportunity||3.43||3.00||4.69|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Louisville||Syracuse|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Louisville||Syracuse||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Louisville||Syracuse||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Louisville||Syracuse||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||3.34||2.39||2.93|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||4.4%||4.7%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||23.1%||0.0%||7.3%|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||7.3||8.3|
|Exp. TO Margin||Syracuse +0.14|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Louisville +0.14|
|TO Points Margin||Louisville +1.0 points|
|1st Down S&P||0.452||0.360|
|2nd Down S&P||0.472||0.426|
|3rd Down S&P||0.552||0.442|
|Projected Scoring Margin: Louisville by 9.1|
|Actual Scoring Margin: Louisville by 22|
Strange game. Well, I guess any game with two safeties is weird. Still. If Louisville could have actually taken advantage of scoring opportunities, they wouldn't have had to wait until the fourth quarter to pull away. But if Syracuse had been just a little bit better through the air (particularly on passing downs) -- "below average" instead of "train wreck" -- the Orange could have stuck around even longer.
In the end, Louisville proved one specific thing: it's a lot easier to start a freshman quarterback and get away with it when your defense is really good.