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Study Hall: Arizona 31, Oregon 24

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Jonathan Ferrey

Arizona 31, Oregon 24

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Arizona Oregon Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 86 74
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 29.1 21.8 29.7
Possessions 12 12
Scoring Opportunities*
7 6
Points Per Opportunity 4.43 4.00 4.69
Leverage Rate** 74.4% 66.2% 68.4%
Close S&P*** 0.484 0.495 0.508
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Arizona Oregon
Total 29.8 26.9
Rushing 13.9 7.0
Passing 15.9 19.9
Success Rate (what's this?) Arizona Oregon Nat'l Avg
All (close) 37.2% 37.8% 42.2%
Rushing (close) 33.3% 25.0% 43.6%
Passing (close) 42.9% 50.0% 40.7%
Standard Downs 37.5% 36.7% 47.5%
Passing Downs 36.4% 40.0% 30.7%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Arizona Oregon Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.93 0.96 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.82 0.78 0.73
Passing (close) 1.06 1.05 0.99
Standard Downs 0.73 0.89 0.77
Passing Downs 1.55 1.10 1.14
Line Stats Arizona Oregon Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.97 3.15 2.93
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 5.3% 12.5% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 18.8% 14.3% 7.3%
Turnovers Arizona Oregon
Turnovers 2 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 7.1 8.2
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Oregon +0.15
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Arizona +0.15
TO Points Margin Arizona +1.1 points
Situational Arizona Oregon
Q1 S&P 0.392 0.365
Q2 S&P 0.399 0.514
Q3 S&P 0.689 0.596
Q4 S&P 0.396 0.538
1st Down S&P 0.413 0.456
2nd Down S&P 0.475 0.575
3rd Down S&P 0.653 0.390
Projected Scoring Margin: Arizona by 4.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Arizona by 7

Describe to me all of the offensive line issues Oregon is having at the moment, and I'd still assume there's no way the Ducks end a game with a 25 percent rushing success rate. It's Oregon! That boggles the mind.

And while the narrative I had going in my head was that Oregon's offense got rolling a bit in the second half while Arizona's offense simply rolled more, that's not necessarily the case. Oregon's offense improved a BIT in the second half, and Arizona's offense perked up in the third quarter. Otherwise it was mostly the same.