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Study Hall: Ohio State 52, Maryland 24

Jonathan Ernst

Ohio State 52, Maryland 24

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Maryland Ohio State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 64 77
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 72.3%
Avg Starting FP 19.7 44.6 29.7
Possessions 14 14
Scoring Opportunities*
4 11
Points Per Opportunity 6.00 4.09 4.69
Leverage Rate** 43.8% 61.0% 68.4%
Close S&P*** 0.395 0.654 0.508
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Maryland Ohio State
Total 18.7 38.8
Rushing 6.5 18.7
Passing 12.2 20.1
Success Rate (what's this?) Maryland Ohio State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 34.1% 58.6% 42.2%
Rushing (close) 42.9% 60.0% 43.6%
Passing (close) 30.0% 56.5% 40.7%
Standard Downs 42.9% 61.7% 47.5%
Passing Downs 18.8% 45.5% 30.7%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Maryland Ohio State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.61 0.93 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.70 0.57 0.73
Passing (close) 0.56 1.51 0.99
Standard Downs 0.51 0.86 0.77
Passing Downs 1.03 1.30 1.14
Line Stats Maryland Ohio State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.00 3.83 2.93
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 11.8% 18.8% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 7.7% 0.0% 7.3%
Turnovers Maryland Ohio State
Turnovers 4 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 20.5 0.0
Turnover Margin Ohio State +4
Exp. TO Margin Maryland +0.14
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Ohio State +4.14
TO Points Margin Ohio State +20.5 points
Situational Maryland Ohio State
Q1 S&P 0.334 0.701
Q2 S&P 0.400 0.603
Q3 S&P 0.576 0.656
Q4 S&P 0.540 0.496
1st Down S&P 0.492 0.648
2nd Down S&P 0.378 0.572
3rd Down S&P 0.517 0.653
Projected Scoring Margin: Ohio State by 40.6
Actual Scoring Margin: Ohio State by 28

This was a popular game among the handicappers, mainly because no set of numbers was going to be too high on Ohio State, and after wrecking an Indiana team that had just beaten Missouri (and after narrowly falling to a WVU team the numbers also like), Maryland's stats were plumped up a little bit.

Yeah, Ohio State was apparently a little offended by this. They jumped on the Terps early, they started picking off every pass late, they outran Maryland, outpassed Maryland, out-efficiency'd Maryland, out-(while we're making up words)bigplayed Maryland. They domoinated on the lines, they dominated on first down, they dominated in the first half. They were a little bit lucky from a turnovers perspective -- they recovered both of the game's fumbles, and they had four picks to only two break-ups (usually the ratio for six passes defensed would be closer to one pick and five breakups) -- but they were the far better team.

Oh, and J.T. Barrett is starting to look GOOD. He takes a Braxton Millerian level of sacks (four in 27 attempts on Saturday), but when you're otherwise completing 78 percent of your passes at 14.8 yards per completion, you're allowed a few takedowns.