clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Study Hall: Mississippi State 48, Texas A&M 31

New, 2 comments
Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Mississippi State 48, Texas A&M 31

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Mississippi State Texas A&M Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 77 93
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 68.8%
Avg Starting FP 31.3 29.2 29.7
Possessions 14 16
Scoring Opportunities*
8 8
Points Per Opportunity 6.12 3.88 4.69
Leverage Rate** 67.5% 41.9% 68.4%
Close S&P*** 0.689 0.478 0.508
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Mississippi State Texas A&M
Total 40.3 31.3
Rushing 23.7 8.3
Passing 16.6 23.0
Success Rate (what's this?) Mississippi State Texas A&M Nat'l Avg
All (close) 63.5% 46.3% 42.2%
Rushing (close) 65.8% 56.3% 43.6%
Passing (close) 60.0% 42.1% 40.7%
Standard Downs 67.3% 53.9% 47.5%
Passing Downs 45.5% 26.7% 30.7%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Mississippi State Texas A&M Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.91 0.54 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.78 0.41 0.73
Passing (close) 1.12 0.61 0.99
Standard Downs 0.76 0.51 0.77
Passing Downs 1.91 0.68 1.14
Line Stats Mississippi State Texas A&M Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.86 4.31 2.93
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 10.5% 8.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 7.3%
Turnovers Mississippi State Texas A&M
Turnovers 2 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 8.3 15.3
Turnover Margin Mississippi State +1
Exp. TO Margin Mississippi State +1.03
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Texas A&M +0.03
TO Points Margin Mississippi State +7.0 points
Situational Mississippi State Texas A&M
Q1 S&P 0.669 0.499
Q2 S&P 0.659 0.528
Q3 S&P 0.738 0.453
Q4 S&P 0.430 0.578
1st Down S&P 0.596 0.530
2nd Down S&P 0.729 0.524
3rd Down S&P 0.565 0.457
Projected Scoring Margin: Mississippi State by 16.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Mississippi State by 17

The element of surprise was certainly involved -- MSU knew A&M wasn't going to run and was geared to stop the pass, and besides, when it's 28-7 in the second quarter, the other team's going to pass a lot -- but ... yeah, A&M maybe should have run more on Saturday. It worked when the Aggies tried it (Tra Carson, Tray Williams, and Brandon Williams: 19 carries, 126 yards), and it would have eased the pressure on a freshman quarterback who was losing the plot.

Kenny Hill is good and will probably be awesome soon, but asking him to shoulder the load of a huge comeback probably wasn't the greatest thing in the world. (Neither was the fact that his receivers had the dropsies again.) And in the end, there was a lot of good and bad on his stat line: 37-for-62 (60%), 365 yards, 4 TD, 3 INT, 4 sacks for 33, 5.0 yards per attempt.

Meanwhile, anything over 50% is a pretty good success rate. Mississippi State's success rates were obscene. 64% would have been pretty good had MSU been playing Texas A&M-Kingsville. This offense is just humming.