Mississippi State 48, Texas A&M 31
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|Basics||Mississippi State||Texas A&M||Nat'l Avg|
|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||68.8%|
|Avg Starting FP||31.3||29.2||29.7|
|Points Per Opportunity||6.12||3.88||4.69|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Mississippi State||Texas A&M|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Mississippi State||Texas A&M||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Mississippi State||Texas A&M||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Mississippi State||Texas A&M||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||3.86||4.31||2.93|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||10.5%||8.0%||4.7%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||0.0%||7.3%|
|Turnovers||Mississippi State||Texas A&M|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||8.3||15.3|
|Turnover Margin||Mississippi State +1|
|Exp. TO Margin||Mississippi State +1.03|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Texas A&M +0.03|
|TO Points Margin||Mississippi State +7.0 points|
|Situational||Mississippi State||Texas A&M|
|1st Down S&P||0.596||0.530|
|2nd Down S&P||0.729||0.524|
|3rd Down S&P||0.565||0.457|
|Projected Scoring Margin: Mississippi State by 16.0|
|Actual Scoring Margin: Mississippi State by 17|
The element of surprise was certainly involved -- MSU knew A&M wasn't going to run and was geared to stop the pass, and besides, when it's 28-7 in the second quarter, the other team's going to pass a lot -- but ... yeah, A&M maybe should have run more on Saturday. It worked when the Aggies tried it (Tra Carson, Tray Williams, and Brandon Williams: 19 carries, 126 yards), and it would have eased the pressure on a freshman quarterback who was losing the plot.
Kenny Hill is good and will probably be awesome soon, but asking him to shoulder the load of a huge comeback probably wasn't the greatest thing in the world. (Neither was the fact that his receivers had the dropsies again.) And in the end, there was a lot of good and bad on his stat line: 37-for-62 (60%), 365 yards, 4 TD, 3 INT, 4 sacks for 33, 5.0 yards per attempt.
Meanwhile, anything over 50% is a pretty good success rate. Mississippi State's success rates were obscene. 64% would have been pretty good had MSU been playing Texas A&M-Kingsville. This offense is just humming.