clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

2015 Ball State advanced statistical profile

Updated on 8/21/2016

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Back to the index page.

Got position corrections? Note them here.

Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

2015 | 2016

Ball State Cardinals (MAC West)

2015 Schedule & Results
Record: 3-9 | Second-order wins (diff.): 3.0 (0.0) | S&P+ Rk: 111
Date Opponent Opp. S&P+ Rk Score W-L Win
Expectancy
Adj. Scoring
Margin
Percentile
Performance
Off.
Percentile
Def.
Percentile
3-Sep VMI N/A 48-36 W 95% 13.3 7% 34% 7%
12-Sep at Texas A&M 42 23-56 L 1% -20.2 25% 42% 15%
19-Sep at Eastern Michigan 121 28-17 W 75% 5.3 67% 8% 60%
26-Sep at Northwestern 56 19-24 L 37% -2.7 71% 73% 13%
3-Oct Toledo 21 10-24 L 0% -21.7 48% 16% 48%
10-Oct at Northern Illinois 69 41-59 L 3% -15.0 17% 76% 14%
17-Oct Georgia State 91 19-31 L 9% -10.7 20% 32% 32%
24-Oct Central Michigan 78 21-23 L 13% -9.0 23% 38% 42%
31-Oct Massachusetts 97 20-10 W 64% 2.8 30% 44% 48%
5-Nov at Western Michigan 53 7-54 L 0% -40.8 15% 2% 12%
17-Nov at Ohio 66 31-48 L 5% -12.8 16% 58% 9%
24-Nov Bowling Green 19 10-48 L 0% -32.9 15% 13% 31%
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
S&P+ 23.2 103 37.5 114
Points Per Game 23.1 102 35.8 108
Five Factors
Offense Defense
Category Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 1.12 121 1.29 83 1.27
EFFICIENCY Success Rate 39.8% 90 47.2% 116 40.3%
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 30.2 57 28.6 42 29.9
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 4.01 115 4.94 95 4.67
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED -3.91 102 Turnover Luck (PPG):
+2.05
ACTUAL 1 58
Rushing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Rushing S&P+ 92.3 105 93.9 86 100.0
Rushing Success Rate 41.0% 81 43.5% 79 42.3%
Rushing IsoPPP 1.00 98 1.03 46 1.08
Adj. Line Yards 95.4 95 91.1 101 100.0
Opportunity Rate 32.9% 119 39.2% 76 38.9%
Power Success Rate 67.2% 56 69.6% 92 66.3%
Stuff Rate 17.6% 35 17.8% 93 19.6%

Individual Rushing Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Fumbles
(Lost)
James Gilbert RB 5'8, 191 FR 152 608 8 4.0 3.9 29.6% 1 (0)
Darian Green RB 5'8, 176 SO 145 730 5 5.0 6.7 29.7% 0 (0)
Riley Neal QB 6'5, 217 FR 78 466 2 6.0 4.9 47.4% 5 (4)
Teddy Williamson RB 5'9, 205 JR 40 136 0 3.4 1.6 30.0% 0 (0)
Jack Milas QB 6'1, 210 SO 5 23 0 4.6 3.0 40.0% 0 (0)
KeVonn Mabon WR 6'1, 219 JR 2 -4 0 -2.0 0.0 0.0% 1 (1)
Alex Egan PK 5'10, 203 JR 1 -17 0 -17.0 0.0 0.0% 1 (0)
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Passing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing S&P+ 90.8 92 75.2 127 100.0
Passing Success Rate 38.9% 79 51.3% 128 40.3%
Passing IsoPPP 1.24 122 1.53 86 1.49
Adj. Sack Rate 209.2 9 62.2 120 100

Individual Passing Stats

Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Riley Neal 6'5, 217 FR 228 391 2276 16 6 58.3% 10 2.5% 5.5
Jack Milas 6'1, 210 SO 35 67 343 1 3 52.2% 1 1.5% 4.9

Individual Receiving Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate Success Rate Target
Rate
Jordan Williams WR 6'3, 228 SR 141 73 935 8 12.8 6.6 51.8% 42.6% 31.7%
KeVonn Mabon WR 6'1, 219 JR 113 70 745 2 10.6 6.6 61.9% 38.9% 25.4%
Corey Lacanaria WR 5'8, 165 SO 64 45 374 2 8.3 5.8 70.3% 46.9% 14.4%
Chris Shillings WR 6'1, 205 SR 43 26 186 1 7.2 4.3 60.5% 44.2% 9.7%
Jordan Hogue WR 6'0, 178 SO 26 11 81 1 7.4 3.1 42.3% 19.2% 5.8%
Dylan Curry TE 6'5, 268 SR 20 9 51 1 5.7 2.6 45.0% 30.0% 4.5%
Darian Green RB 5'8, 176 SO 16 14 84 1 6.0 5.3 87.5% 31.2% 3.6%
Sam Brunner TE 6'2, 240 JR 10 7 73 0 10.4 7.3 70.0% 60.0% 2.2%
Cywettnie Brown WR 6'0, 162 JR 4 3 61 1 20.3 15.3 75.0% 50.0% 0.9%
James Gilbert RB 5'8, 191 FR 4 3 35 0 11.7 8.8 75.0% 50.0% 0.9%
Teddy Williamson RB 5'9, 205 JR 2 2 3 0 1.5 1.5 100.0% 50.0% 0.4%
Morgan Hagee PK 5'11, 158 FR 1 1 4 0 4.0 4.0 100.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Spencer Gilbert RB 6'1, 204 FR 1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Standard Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Standard Downs S&P+ 93.2 99 87.8 114 100.0
Standard Downs Success Rate 44.8% 92 49.5% 100 46.5%
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.01 108 1.16 90 1.11
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.77 84 2.92 75 2.90
SD Sack Rate 1.7% 9 2.4% 120 5.0%
Passing Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing Downs S&P+ 86.8 100 76.9 126 100.0
Passing Downs Success Rate 29.3% 76 41.4% 128 30.7%
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.51 121 1.69 43 1.77
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.48 40 3.84 123 3.20
PD Sack Rate 2.5% 3 5.8% 92 7.5%
Situational
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk
Q1 S&P+ 79.2 120 95.7 82
Q2 S&P+ 99.6 74 75.8 126
Q3 S&P+ 91.3 98 78.1 125
Q4 S&P+ 101.2 72 88.9 111
1st Down S&P+ 98.5 81 86.1 116
2nd Down S&P+ 87.6 104 78.2 123
3rd Down S&P+ 86.2 112 88.5 109
Offensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 53.4% 99 60.4%
Pass Downs Run Rate 31.0% 75 34.0%
Adj. Pace +2.0 37 +0.0
% of Solo Tackles 63.9% 123 74.9%
Defensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 59.7% 68 60.3%
Pass. Downs Run Rate 34.3% 64 33.9%
Overall Havoc Rate 12.0% 122 16.0%
DL Havoc Rate 4.3% 81 5.1%
LB Havoc Rate 3.3% 93 4.5%
DB Havoc Rate 4.1% 122 6.3%
PD to INC 37.8% 25 32.8%
Individual Defensive Stats
Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Ben Ingle LB 6'1, 237 SR 74.0 9.9% 6.0 1.0 1 4 1 0
Sean Wiggins LB 6'3, 228 JR 71.5 9.6% 4.5 2.0 2 4 1 0
Martez Hester S 6'3, 207 JR 60.5 8.1% 0.0 0.0 0 3 0 0
Dedrick Cromartie S 5'10, 179 SO 51.0 6.8% 1.5 0.0 1 2 0 0
Zack Ryan LB 5'11, 224 JR 50.0 6.7% 3.0 0.0 0 2 1 0
Michael Ayers DE 6'1, 252 SR 48.5 6.5% 4.0 2.0 0 0 0 0
David Moore DB 5'9, 171 SO 47.0 6.3% 2.0 0.0 0 3 1 0
Joshua Posley DE 6'1, 252 JR 42.0 5.6% 9.0 2.5 0 1 2 0
Lamont McPhatter CB 5'10, 183 FR 32.5 4.4% 1.0 1.0 0 3 1 0
Darius Conaway CB 6'1, 189 JR 29.0 3.9% 2.5 0.0 0 6 0 0
Aaron Taylor S 5'11, 205 JR 23.0 3.1% 2.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
John Whitman III DL 6'1, 298 JR 22.0 3.0% 2.5 0.0 0 1 0 0
Tyree Holder CB 6'1, 170 JR 21.5 2.9% 0.0 0.0 2 2 1 0
Kevin Willis DT 6'2, 305 SO 18.5 2.5% 3.5 1.0 0 0 0 0
Avery Bailey LB 6'1, 208 SR 14.5 1.9% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Marc Walton DB 5'9, 177 FR 13.0 1.7% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Anthony Winbush DL 6'1, 228 SO 12.0 1.6% 5.5 5.0 0 0 1 0
Julian Jackson DL 6'1, 298 SR 10.5 1.4% 0.5 0.0 0 2 0 0
Osazuwamen Igbinosun DE 6'2, 255 SR 10.0 1.3% 2.5 0.5 0 0 0 0
Damon Singleton OLB 6'2, 234 FR 10.0 1.3% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Rontrell Peyton DB 5'11, 184 JR 9.5 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0 0 1 0
Kevin Thurmon DL 6'0, 282 FR 8.5 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Jeremiah Jackson ILB 5'11, 219 FR 7.0 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Corey Hall DB 5'9, 189 JR 6.5 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0 0 1 0
Terin Solomon DB 5'11, 179 JR 6.0 0.8% 0.0 0.0 1 0 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Special Teams

Rating Rank
Special Teams S&P+ 0.1 62
Category Rate Rank
FG Value (per kick) 0.07 60
Punt Success Rate 52.3% 86
Kickoff Success Rate 67.2% 81
Punt Return Success Rate 76.9% 1
Kick Return Success Rate 52.0% 35
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Morgan Hagee 5'11, 158 FR 31-32 16-21 76.2%
Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Kyle Schmidt 6'2, 215 JR 58 39.7 0 15 20 60.3%
Alex Egan 5'10, 203 JR 8 39.0 0 2 2 50.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Kyle Schmidt 6'2, 215 JR 39 61.4 14 35.9% 0 3 0 0
Morgan Hagee 5'11, 158 FR 14 51.0 0 0.0% 0 1 0 0
Steve Drida 6'1, 201 SO 5 59.0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0
Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Corey Lacanaria 5'8, 165 SO 11 10.5 0 10 1 (1)
Jordan Hogue 6'0, 178 SO 1 0.0 0 0 0 (0)
Aaron Hepp 6'1, 189 JR 1 12.0 0 1 0 (0)
Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Darian Green 5'8, 176 SO 25 25.7 0 0 0 (0)
KeVonn Mabon 6'1, 219 JR 19 27.2 1 0 0 (0)
Cywettnie Brown 6'0, 162 JR 4 22.0 0 0 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics