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2015 Northwestern advanced statistical profile

Updated on 8/21/2016

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2015 | 2016

Northwestern Wildcats (Big Ten West)

2015 Schedule & Results
Record: 10-3 | Second-order wins (diff.): 7.2 (-2.8) | S&P+ Rk: 56
Date Opponent Opp. S&P+ Rk Score W-L Win
Expectancy
Adj. Scoring
Margin
Percentile
Performance
Off.
Percentile
Def.
Percentile
5-Sep Stanford 10 16-6 W 71% 4.4 97% 28% 99%
12-Sep Eastern Illinois N/A 41-0 W 100% 38.9 79% 32% 97%
19-Sep at Duke 75 19-10 W 30% -4.2 75% 32% 91%
26-Sep Ball State 111 24-19 W 63% 2.7 68% 25% 35%
3-Oct Minnesota 37 27-0 W 100% 21.7 94% 43% 98%
10-Oct at Michigan 6 0-38 L 0% -37.3 14% 21% 30%
17-Oct Iowa 47 10-40 L 0% -24.6 12% 15% 41%
24-Oct at Nebraska 48 30-28 W 73% 5.0 59% 52% 80%
7-Nov Penn State 30 23-21 W 43% -1.5 39% 50% 61%
14-Nov Purdue 86 21-14 W 63% 2.6 21% 17% 56%
21-Nov at Wisconsin 31 13-7 W 87% 8.9 85% 43% 98%
28-Nov vs. Illinois 61 24-14 W 88% 9.3 59% 60% 69%
1-Jan vs. Tennessee 22 6-45 L 0% -29.9 15% 10% 44%
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
S&P+ 21.0 111 15.5 5
Points Per Game 19.5 114 18.6 12
Five Factors
Offense Defense
Category Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 1.21 93 1.14 15 1.27
EFFICIENCY Success Rate 34.2% 124 35.7% 18 40.3%
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 27.7 112 31.0 94 29.9
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 3.97 116 3.67 6 4.67
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED 4.19 28 Turnover Luck (PPG):
-1.23
ACTUAL 1 58
Rushing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Rushing S&P+ 94.7 99 116.3 22 100.0
Rushing Success Rate 35.4% 120 38.4% 36 42.3%
Rushing IsoPPP 1.20 19 0.95 18 1.08
Adj. Line Yards 97.3 84 111.6 26 100.0
Opportunity Rate 35.2% 106 34.0% 23 38.9%
Power Success Rate 58.7% 110 78.0% 116 66.3%
Stuff Rate 21.1% 89 20.6% 53 19.6%

Individual Rushing Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Fumbles
(Lost)
Justin Jackson RB 5'11, 190 SO 313 1418 5 4.5 4.4 33.2% 4 (2)
Clayton Thorson QB 6'4, 220 FR 79 542 5 6.9 7.6 44.3% 9 (3)
Warren Long RB 6'0, 210 JR 60 329 5 5.5 7.7 31.7% 0 (0)
Solomon Vault RB 5'10, 190 SO 56 159 0 2.8 2.6 30.4% 1 (1)
Auston Anderson RB 5'9, 180 FR 13 56 0 4.3 6.4 30.8% 1 (1)
Jelani Roberts WR 5'8, 160 FR 10 36 0 3.6 2.4 60.0% 1 (0)
Corey Acker WR 5'9, 170 SO 8 82 0 10.3 8.3 62.5% 0 (0)
Tom Hruby LB 6'3, 240 JR 8 25 0 3.1 1.3 37.5% 1 (0)
Miles Shuler WR 5'10, 180 SR 2 30 0 15.0 18.5 50.0% 1 (0)
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Passing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing S&P+ 79.0 113 124.7 9 100.0
Passing Success Rate 32.2% 118 33.6% 13 40.3%
Passing IsoPPP 1.22 124 1.33 23 1.49
Adj. Sack Rate 77.1 102 111.2 45 100

Individual Passing Stats

Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Clayton Thorson 6'4, 220 FR 150 295 1522 7 9 50.8% 22 6.9% 4.3
Zack Oliver 6'4, 230 SR 23 53 267 1 4 43.4% 6 10.2% 4.0
Matt Alviti 6'0, 200 SO 1 3 12 0 0 33.3% 1 25.0% 1.3

Individual Receiving Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate Success Rate Target
Rate
Dan Vitale SB 6'2, 235 SR 64 33 355 4 10.8 5.6 51.6% 39.1% 19.4%
Christian Jones WR 6'3, 235 SR 49 23 234 2 10.2 4.8 46.9% 44.9% 14.8%
Mike McHugh WR 6'3, 195 JR 32 16 160 0 10.0 5.0 50.0% 31.2% 9.7%
Miles Shuler WR 5'10, 180 SR 31 15 149 0 9.9 4.8 48.4% 32.3% 9.4%
Justin Jackson RB 5'11, 190 SO 28 21 162 0 7.7 5.8 75.0% 32.1% 8.5%
Austin Carr WR 6'1, 195 JR 25 16 302 2 18.9 12.1 64.0% 56.0% 7.6%
Garrett Dickerson SB 6'3, 245 SO 21 12 124 0 10.3 5.9 57.1% 52.4% 6.4%
Solomon Vault RB 5'10, 190 SO 21 11 95 0 8.6 4.5 52.4% 28.6% 6.4%
Cameron Dickerson WR 6'3, 225 SR 15 5 38 0 7.6 2.5 33.3% 20.0% 4.5%
Jelani Roberts WR 5'8, 160 FR 10 8 48 0 6.0 4.8 80.0% 40.0% 3.0%
Flynn Nagel WR 5'11, 190 FR 8 4 47 0 11.8 5.9 50.0% 37.5% 2.4%
Warren Long RB 6'0, 210 JR 5 3 27 0 9.0 5.4 60.0% 40.0% 1.5%
Stephen Buckley WR 6'0, 185 JR 5 2 12 0 6.0 2.4 40.0% 20.0% 1.5%
Pierre Youngblood-Ary WR 6'3, 190 SR 4 2 33 0 16.5 8.3 50.0% 50.0% 1.2%
Garrett Kidd WR 6'2, 195 SR 4 2 15 0 7.5 3.8 50.0% 50.0% 1.2%
Macan Wilson WR 6'0, 180 SO 2 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%
Standard Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Standard Downs S&P+ 86.5 115 113.9 21 100.0
Standard Downs Success Rate 38.4% 124 43.1% 38 46.5%
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.08 74 0.92 2 1.11
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.74 90 2.45 12 2.90
SD Sack Rate 8.2% 116 5.6% 46 5.0%
Passing Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing Downs S&P+ 87.4 98 130.7 10 100.0
Passing Downs Success Rate 25.9% 105 23.0% 7 30.7%
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.57 109 1.86 93 1.77
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.02 85 3.50 93 3.20
PD Sack Rate 7.1% 59 5.5% 98 7.5%
Situational
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk
Q1 S&P+ 86.4 110 113.1 34
Q2 S&P+ 86.3 111 137.6 4
Q3 S&P+ 94.1 92 117.3 23
Q4 S&P+ 83.5 119 107.3 42
1st Down S&P+ 80.9 119 116.2 21
2nd Down S&P+ 81.2 118 122.8 14
3rd Down S&P+ 111.7 39 116.5 23
Offensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 69.5% 17 60.4%
Pass Downs Run Rate 45.8% 13 34.0%
Adj. Pace +3.3 31 +0.0
% of Solo Tackles 73.0% 82 74.9%
Defensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 56.7% 104 60.3%
Pass. Downs Run Rate 24.4% 125 33.9%
Overall Havoc Rate 18.8% 21 16.0%
DL Havoc Rate 6.3% 35 5.1%
LB Havoc Rate 5.3% 38 4.5%
DB Havoc Rate 6.9% 39 6.3%
PD to INC 35.1% 42 32.8%
Individual Defensive Stats
Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Anthony Walker LB 6'1, 235 SO 91.5 13.2% 20.5 4.0 1 4 1 2
Godwin Igwebuike S 6'0, 200 SO 69.0 10.0% 4.5 0.0 0 5 1 0
Traveon Henry S 6'1, 215 SR 61.0 8.8% 3.0 1.0 2 4 0 0
Drew Smith LB 6'1, 230 SR 47.0 6.8% 10.5 2.0 0 1 1 0
Dean Lowry DL 6'6, 290 SR 41.5 6.0% 13.5 3.0 1 6 0 1
Nate Hall LB 6'2, 230 FR 41.5 6.0% 2.5 0.0 0 2 0 0
Matthew Harris CB 5'11, 180 JR 39.0 5.6% 1.0 0.0 4 13 1 0
Jaylen Prater LB 6'0, 230 JR 35.5 5.1% 1.0 1.0 0 1 0 0
Keith Watkins II CB 5'11, 180 SO 35.0 5.1% 1.0 0.0 0 6 0 0
Nick VanHoose CB 6'0, 190 SR 34.5 5.0% 1.0 0.0 3 12 1 0
Deonte Gibson DL 6'3, 265 SR 29.0 4.2% 12.5 9.0 0 0 0 0
Tyler Lancaster DL 6'3, 300 SO 25.5 3.7% 5.5 1.5 0 2 2 0
Joseph Jones LB 6'1, 225 JR 16.0 2.3% 2.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Ifeadi Odenigbo DL 6'3, 250 JR 15.5 2.2% 5.0 5.0 0 0 0 0
Xavier Washington DL 6'1, 235 SO 12.0 1.7% 3.5 1.0 0 1 0 0
Jordan Thompson DL 6'3, 275 FR 11.0 1.6% 0.5 0.0 0 1 0 0
C.J. Robbins DL 6'5, 300 SR 11.0 1.6% 0.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Marcus McShepard CB 5'11, 200 SO 11.0 1.6% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Greg Kuhar DL 6'3, 305 JR 8.0 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Cameron Queiro LB 6'1, 225 FR 6.5 0.9% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Terrance Brown S 6'1, 210 JR 6.5 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Kyle Queiro S 6'3, 200 SO 6.5 0.9% 0.0 0.0 1 0 0 0
Jared McGee S 6'1, 215 FR 4.0 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Warren Long RB 6'0, 210 JR 3.5 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0 0 1 0
Montre Hartage DB 6'0, 180 FR 3.5 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Special Teams

Rating Rank
Special Teams S&P+ -1.5 127
Category Rate Rank
FG Value (per kick) -0.27 108
Punt Success Rate 48.8% 102
Kickoff Success Rate 61.0% 104
Punt Return Success Rate 30.8% 116
Kick Return Success Rate 43.8% 70
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Jack Mitchell 6'3, 210 JR 25-28 18-27 66.7%
Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Hunter Niswander 6'5, 235 SO 85 38.0 2 30 21 60.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Matt Micucci 5'11, 185 JR 32 57.5 7 21.9% 0 1 0 0
Jack Mitchell 6'3, 210 JR 26 61.3 13 50.0% 0 0 0 0
Arthur Omilian 5'11, 180 SR 1 45.0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0
Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Miles Shuler 5'10, 180 SR 11 10.0 0 20 1 (0)
Flynn Nagel 5'11, 190 FR 2 -1.0 0 1 0 (0)
Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Solomon Vault 5'10, 190 SO 25 26.3 2 0 0 (0)
Miles Shuler 5'10, 180 SR 4 23.3 0 0 0 (0)
Dan Vitale 6'2, 235 SR 1 16.0 0 0 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics