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2015 Arkansas State advanced statistical profile

Updated on 8/21/2016

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2015 | 2016

Arkansas State Red Wolves (Sun Belt)

2015 Schedule & Results
Record: 9-4 | Second-order wins (diff.): 8.8 (-0.2) | S&P+ Rk: 79
Date Opponent Opp. S&P+ Rk Score W-L Win
Expectancy		 Adj. Scoring
Margin		 Percentile
Performance		 Off.
Percentile		 Def.
Percentile
5-Sep at USC 17 6-55 L 0% -41.7 8% 3% 10%
12-Sep Missouri 85 20-27 L 28% -4.7 33% 14% 51%
19-Sep Missouri State N/A 70-7 W 100% 44.7 66% 83% 60%
26-Sep at Toledo 21 7-37 L 0% -23.3 35% 3% 82%
3-Oct Idaho 109 49-35 W 97% 15.3 83% 62% 64%
13-Oct at South Alabama 103 49-31 W 93% 11.9 42% 37% 72%
20-Oct UL-Lafayette 107 37-27 W 94% 12.6 52% 72% 59%
31-Oct Georgia State 91 48-34 W 93% 12.0 68% 87% 59%
5-Nov at Appalachian State 43 40-27 W 74% 5.1 82% 97% 59%
14-Nov at UL-Monroe 122 59-21 W 98% 16.8 47% 60% 50%
28-Nov at New Mexico State 116 52-28 W 97% 15.0 45% 63% 39%
5-Dec Texas State 112 55-17 W 100% 26.1 72% 77% 69%
19-Dec vs. Louisiana Tech 54 28-47 L 1% -19.5 21% 55% 27%
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
S&P+ 29.2 61 30.2 81
Points Per Game 40.0 12 30.2 86
Five Factors
Offense Defense
Category Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 1.23 80 1.48 124 1.27
EFFICIENCY Success Rate 44.4% 32 35.5% 15 40.3%
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 34.7 2 26.3 6 29.9
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 5.25 26 5.04 100 4.67
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED 2.37 51 Turnover Luck (PPG):
+2.17
ACTUAL 8 22
Rushing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Rushing S&P+ 112.9 25 99.8 68 100.0
Rushing Success Rate 46.7% 25 38.1% 33 42.3%
Rushing IsoPPP 1.10 46 1.15 98 1.08
Adj. Line Yards 104.4 46 104.8 43 100.0
Opportunity Rate 42.6% 23 34.9% 29 38.9%
Power Success Rate 66.0% 65 65.5% 59 66.3%
Stuff Rate 21.4% 91 23.0% 26 19.6%

Individual Rushing Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry		 Hlt Yds/
Opp.		 Opp.
Rate		 Fumbles
(Lost)
Michael Gordon RB 5'9, 187 SR 167 1063 9 6.4 6.6 43.1% 3 (2)
Fredi Knighten QB 5'11, 189 SR 123 544 5 4.4 3.8 44.7% 5 (2)
Warren Wand RB 5'5, 174 FR 117 707 5 6.0 6.3 43.6% 2 (1)
Johnston White RB 5'11, 180 SO 99 616 14 6.2 6.7 41.4% 1 (1)
Logan Moragne RB 5'9, 195 FR 20 203 1 10.2 12.6 50.0% 1 (1)
J.D. McKissic WR 5'11, 193 SR 18 112 0 6.2 6.1 44.4% 2 (2)
James Tabary QB 6'2, 195 FR 8 -15 0 -1.9 0.0 0.0% 5 (1)
DeKeathan Williams RB 6'1, 212 JR 6 31 0 5.2 1.3 66.7% 0 (0)
Tyler Trosin WR 5'11, 180 SR 4 4 0 1.0 0.0 0.0% 1 (0)
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Passing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing S&P+ 95.0 83 103.6 58 100.0
Passing Success Rate 40.9% 57 33.6% 14 40.3%
Passing IsoPPP 1.45 76 1.76 122 1.49
Adj. Sack Rate 93.2 72 111.1 46 100

Individual Passing Stats

Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate		 Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Fredi Knighten 5'11, 189 SR 136 251 1835 19 9 54.2% 15 5.6% 6.3
James Tabary 6'2, 195 FR 65 105 788 4 6 61.9% 10 8.7% 6.2
Cameron Birse 6'2, 213 SO 4 4 37 0 0 100.0% 0 0.0% 9.3

Individual Receiving Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch		 Yds/
Target		 Catch Rate Success Rate Target
Rate
J.D. McKissic WR 5'11, 193 SR 65 52 525 2 10.1 8.1 80.0% 64.6% 19.8%
Tres Houston WR 6'2, 188 SR 55 36 615 10 17.1 11.2 65.5% 60.0% 16.7%
Dijon Paschal WR 6'1, 196 SO 50 28 541 3 19.3 10.8 56.0% 48.0% 15.2%
Tyler Trosin WR 5'11, 180 SR 23 8 113 0 14.1 4.9 34.8% 34.8% 7.0%
Warren Wand RB 5'5, 174 FR 22 18 135 0 7.5 6.1 81.8% 40.9% 6.7%
Michael Gordon RB 5'9, 187 SR 20 13 81 2 6.2 4.1 65.0% 30.0% 6.1%
Darion Griswold TE 6'5, 264 SR 19 13 187 2 14.4 9.8 68.4% 57.9% 5.8%
Booker Mays WR 5'11, 170 SR 17 7 74 0 10.6 4.4 41.2% 35.3% 5.2%
Chris Murray WR 5'9, 178 JR 16 11 187 3 17.0 11.7 68.8% 56.2% 4.9%
Blake Mack WR 6'3, 200 SO 16 7 86 0 12.3 5.4 43.8% 25.0% 4.9%
Warren Leapheart TE 6'5, 242 JR 11 5 77 0 15.4 7.0 45.5% 45.5% 3.3%
Sterling Stowers WR 5'10, 198 JR 7 5 51 1 10.2 7.3 71.4% 71.4% 2.1%
Johnston White RB 5'11, 180 SO 4 3 12 0 4.0 3.0 75.0% 0.0% 1.2%
Fredi Knighten QB 5'11, 189 SR 3 1 9 0 9.0 3.0 33.3% 33.3% 0.9%
Rocky Hayes DB 5'11, 177 SR 1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Standard Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Standard Downs S&P+ 104.2 51 97.8 74 100.0
Standard Downs Success Rate 49.4% 30 41.5% 19 46.5%
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.11 63 1.36 127 1.11
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.88 66 2.51 17 2.90
SD Sack Rate 3.0% 24 5.1% 62 5.0%
Passing Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing Downs S&P+ 102.3 63 108.9 42 100.0
Passing Downs Success Rate 32.9% 47 25.6% 21 30.7%
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.66 90 1.82 79 1.77
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.18 71 2.77 27 3.20
PD Sack Rate 9.2% 94 7.7% 61 7.5%
Situational
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk
Q1 S&P+ 104.0 64 107.9 38
Q2 S&P+ 98.4 77 93.1 90
Q3 S&P+ 105.7 57 98.4 73
Q4 S&P+ 106.8 48 103.8 53
1st Down S&P+ 100.8 66 95.4 88
2nd Down S&P+ 114.2 31 103.2 61
3rd Down S&P+ 95.3 86 110.4 40
Offensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 67.6% 25 60.4%
Pass Downs Run Rate 42.2% 20 34.0%
Adj. Pace +4.4 22 +0.0
% of Solo Tackles 80.0% 26 74.9%
Defensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 50.3% 125 60.3%
Pass. Downs Run Rate 30.5% 96 33.9%
Overall Havoc Rate 18.4% 27 16.0%
DL Havoc Rate 6.5% 30 5.1%
LB Havoc Rate 3.4% 90 4.5%
DB Havoc Rate 8.2% 14 6.3%
PD to INC 33.9% 53 32.8%
Individual Defensive Stats
Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Khari Lain LB 5'10, 185 SO 64.5 9.5% 7.5 2.0 1 2 0 0
Xavier Woodson LB 6'1, 214 JR 56.0 8.2% 5.5 1.0 2 3 2 0
Cody Brown DB 6'2, 204 JR 52.5 7.7% 2.5 0.0 3 9 0 0
Rocky Hayes DB 5'11, 177 SR 41.5 6.1% 2.5 0.0 6 4 0 0
Chris Humes DB 5'11, 207 SR 41.0 6.0% 0.5 0.0 2 6 0 0
Money Hunter DB 6'1, 193 JR 35.5 5.2% 1.0 0.0 3 4 1 0
Ja'Von Rolland-Jones DE 6'2, 224 SO 30.0 4.4% 12.5 8.5 1 1 4 0
Charleston Girley DB 6'0, 196 SR 29.0 4.3% 2.5 0.5 0 0 0 0
Austin Copeland LB 6'1, 200 SR 28.5 4.2% 4.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Waylon Roberson DL 6'2, 338 JR 26.0 3.8% 2.5 0.0 0 0 1 0
Chris Stone DE 6'3, 252 SR 23.5 3.4% 7.5 1.5 1 2 0 2
Justin Clifton DB 6'0, 207 FR 23.5 3.4% 4.5 1.0 1 1 1 0
Quanterio Heath LB 6'2, 210 JR 23.5 3.4% 1.0 0.5 1 0 0 0
Blaise Taylor DB 5'9, 170 SO 21.5 3.2% 1.0 0.0 1 7 0 0
Jamaris Hart DB 5'9, 163 SO 20.5 3.0% 1.5 1.5 1 6 0 0
Robert Mondie DL 6'2, 321 SR 18.0 2.6% 4.5 0.0 0 0 0 0
Chase Robison DL 6'4, 234 JR 13.5 2.0% 7.5 2.0 0 0 0 0
Nehemiah Wagner DB 6'0, 170 SO 11.5 1.7% 0.0 0.0 1 3 0 0
Chuks Ota DL 6'2, 285 SO 10.0 1.5% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Caleb Caston DE 6'2, 210 SO 9.0 1.3% 2.0 0.5 0 1 0 0
Darrius Rosser DL 6'3, 284 JR 8.0 1.2% 6.5 3.5 0 1 0 0
Tajhea Chambers LB 6'2, 215 FR 8.0 1.2% 2.5 2.5 0 0 0 0
Bo Sentimore DB 6'0, 181 JR 8.0 1.2% 0.0 0.0 1 0 0 0
Jarrod Chandler LB 6'2, 205 FR 7.5 1.1% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Brandon Byner RB 5'11, 177 SO 7.0 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Special Teams

 Rating Rank
Special Teams S&P+ 1.2 19
Category Rate Rank
FG Value (per kick) -0.06 80
Punt Success Rate 69.0% 12
Kickoff Success Rate 81.9% 26
Punt Return Success Rate 63.9% 23
Kick Return Success Rate 65.9% 7
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
JD Houston 5'11, 165 JR 43-45 12-14 85.7%
Drew White 5'8, 195 JR 19-20 1-3 33.3%
Luke Ferguson 6'0, 210 SR 1-1 0-0 #DIV/0!
Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Luke Ferguson 6'0, 210 SR 72 42.7 6 23 33 77.8%
Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches		 Onside
Att		 Onside
Success
Luke Ferguson 6'0, 210 SR 93 62.4 37 39.8% 0 3 1 0
Tres Houston 6'2, 188 SR 1 70.0 1 100.0% 0 0 0 0
Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Blaise Taylor 5'9, 170 SO 24 13.4 1 15 1 (0)
Chris Murray 5'9, 178 JR 10 9.1 0 5 3 (0)
Brandon Byner 5'11, 177 SO 1 0.0 0 0 1 (1)
Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
J.D. McKissic 5'11, 193 SR 25 26.2 1 0 1 (1)
Tyler Trosin 5'11, 180 SR 5 10.8 0 0 1 (0)
Blaise Taylor 5'9, 170 SO 4 43.5 1 0 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics