Updated on 8/21/2016
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2015 | 2016
Arkansas State Red Wolves (Sun Belt)
2015 Schedule & Results
| Record: 9-4 | Second-order wins (diff.): 8.8 (-0.2) | S&P+ Rk: 79 | |||||||||
| Date | Opponent | Opp. S&P+ Rk | Score | W-L | Win Expectancy |
Adj. Scoring Margin |
Percentile Performance |
Off. Percentile |
Def. Percentile |
| 5-Sep | at USC | 17 | 6-55 | L | 0% | -41.7 | 8% | 3% | 10% |
| 12-Sep | Missouri | 85 | 20-27 | L | 28% | -4.7 | 33% | 14% | 51% |
| 19-Sep | Missouri State | N/A | 70-7 | W | 100% | 44.7 | 66% | 83% | 60% |
| 26-Sep | at Toledo | 21 | 7-37 | L | 0% | -23.3 | 35% | 3% | 82% |
| 3-Oct | Idaho | 109 | 49-35 | W | 97% | 15.3 | 83% | 62% | 64% |
| 13-Oct | at South Alabama | 103 | 49-31 | W | 93% | 11.9 | 42% | 37% | 72% |
| 20-Oct | UL-Lafayette | 107 | 37-27 | W | 94% | 12.6 | 52% | 72% | 59% |
| 31-Oct | Georgia State | 91 | 48-34 | W | 93% | 12.0 | 68% | 87% | 59% |
| 5-Nov | at Appalachian State | 43 | 40-27 | W | 74% | 5.1 | 82% | 97% | 59% |
| 14-Nov | at UL-Monroe | 122 | 59-21 | W | 98% | 16.8 | 47% | 60% | 50% |
| 28-Nov | at New Mexico State | 116 | 52-28 | W | 97% | 15.0 | 45% | 63% | 39% |
| 5-Dec | Texas State | 112 | 55-17 | W | 100% | 26.1 | 72% | 77% | 69% |
| 19-Dec | vs. Louisiana Tech | 54 | 28-47 | L | 1% | -19.5 | 21% | 55% | 27% |
| Category | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk |
| S&P+ | 29.2 | 61 | 30.2 | 81 |
| Points Per Game | 40.0 | 12 | 30.2 | 86 |
Five Factors
| Offense | Defense | |||||
| Category | Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Nat'l Avg. | |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | IsoPPP | 1.23 | 80 | 1.48 | 124 | 1.27 |
| EFFICIENCY | Success Rate | 44.4% | 32 | 35.5% | 15 | 40.3% |
| FIELD POSITION | Avg. FP | 34.7 | 2 | 26.3 | 6 | 29.9 |
| FINISHING DRIVES | Pts. Per Trip in 40 | 5.25 | 26 | 5.04 | 100 | 4.67 |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED | 2.37 | 51 | Turnover Luck (PPG): +2.17 |
||
| ACTUAL | 8 | 22 | ||||
Rushing
| Offense | Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Nat'l Avg. | |
| Rushing S&P+ | 112.9 | 25 | 99.8 | 68 | 100.0 |
| Rushing Success Rate | 46.7% | 25 | 38.1% | 33 | 42.3% |
| Rushing IsoPPP | 1.10 | 46 | 1.15 | 98 | 1.08 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 104.4 | 46 | 104.8 | 43 | 100.0 |
| Opportunity Rate | 42.6% | 23 | 34.9% | 29 | 38.9% |
| Power Success Rate | 66.0% | 65 | 65.5% | 59 | 66.3% |
| Stuff Rate | 21.4% | 91 | 23.0% | 26 | 19.6% |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Opp. |
Opp. Rate |
Fumbles (Lost) |
| Michael Gordon | RB | 5'9, 187 | SR | 167 | 1063 | 9 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 43.1% | 3 (2) |
| Fredi Knighten | QB | 5'11, 189 | SR | 123 | 544 | 5 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 44.7% | 5 (2) |
| Warren Wand | RB | 5'5, 174 | FR | 117 | 707 | 5 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 43.6% | 2 (1) |
| Johnston White | RB | 5'11, 180 | SO | 99 | 616 | 14 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 41.4% | 1 (1) |
| Logan Moragne | RB | 5'9, 195 | FR | 20 | 203 | 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 50.0% | 1 (1) |
| J.D. McKissic | WR | 5'11, 193 | SR | 18 | 112 | 0 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 44.4% | 2 (2) |
| James Tabary | QB | 6'2, 195 | FR | 8 | -15 | 0 | -1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 5 (1) |
| DeKeathan Williams | RB | 6'1, 212 | JR | 6 | 31 | 0 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 66.7% | 0 (0) |
| Tyler Trosin | WR | 5'11, 180 | SR | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 1 (0) |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Passing
| Offense | Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Nat'l Avg. | |
| Passing S&P+ | 95.0 | 83 | 103.6 | 58 | 100.0 |
| Passing Success Rate | 40.9% | 57 | 33.6% | 14 | 40.3% |
| Passing IsoPPP | 1.45 | 76 | 1.76 | 122 | 1.49 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 93.2 | 72 | 111.1 | 46 | 100 |
Individual Passing Stats
| Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate |
Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Fredi Knighten | 5'11, 189 | SR | 136 | 251 | 1835 | 19 | 9 | 54.2% | 15 | 5.6% | 6.3 |
| James Tabary | 6'2, 195 | FR | 65 | 105 | 788 | 4 | 6 | 61.9% | 10 | 8.7% | 6.2 |
| Cameron Birse | 6'2, 213 | SO | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 9.3 |
Individual Receiving Stats
| Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch |
Yds/ Target |
Catch Rate | Success Rate | Target Rate |
| J.D. McKissic | WR | 5'11, 193 | SR | 65 | 52 | 525 | 2 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 80.0% | 64.6% | 19.8% |
| Tres Houston | WR | 6'2, 188 | SR | 55 | 36 | 615 | 10 | 17.1 | 11.2 | 65.5% | 60.0% | 16.7% |
| Dijon Paschal | WR | 6'1, 196 | SO | 50 | 28 | 541 | 3 | 19.3 | 10.8 | 56.0% | 48.0% | 15.2% |
| Tyler Trosin | WR | 5'11, 180 | SR | 23 | 8 | 113 | 0 | 14.1 | 4.9 | 34.8% | 34.8% | 7.0% |
| Warren Wand | RB | 5'5, 174 | FR | 22 | 18 | 135 | 0 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 81.8% | 40.9% | 6.7% |
| Michael Gordon | RB | 5'9, 187 | SR | 20 | 13 | 81 | 2 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 65.0% | 30.0% | 6.1% |
| Darion Griswold | TE | 6'5, 264 | SR | 19 | 13 | 187 | 2 | 14.4 | 9.8 | 68.4% | 57.9% | 5.8% |
| Booker Mays | WR | 5'11, 170 | SR | 17 | 7 | 74 | 0 | 10.6 | 4.4 | 41.2% | 35.3% | 5.2% |
| Chris Murray | WR | 5'9, 178 | JR | 16 | 11 | 187 | 3 | 17.0 | 11.7 | 68.8% | 56.2% | 4.9% |
| Blake Mack | WR | 6'3, 200 | SO | 16 | 7 | 86 | 0 | 12.3 | 5.4 | 43.8% | 25.0% | 4.9% |
| Warren Leapheart | TE | 6'5, 242 | JR | 11 | 5 | 77 | 0 | 15.4 | 7.0 | 45.5% | 45.5% | 3.3% |
| Sterling Stowers | WR | 5'10, 198 | JR | 7 | 5 | 51 | 1 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 71.4% | 71.4% | 2.1% |
| Johnston White | RB | 5'11, 180 | SO | 4 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 75.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% |
| Fredi Knighten | QB | 5'11, 189 | SR | 3 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 33.3% | 33.3% | 0.9% |
| Rocky Hayes | DB | 5'11, 177 | SR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
Standard Downs
| Offense | Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Nat'l Avg. | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 104.2 | 51 | 97.8 | 74 | 100.0 |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 49.4% | 30 | 41.5% | 19 | 46.5% |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.11 | 63 | 1.36 | 127 | 1.11 |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.88 | 66 | 2.51 | 17 | 2.90 |
| SD Sack Rate | 3.0% | 24 | 5.1% | 62 | 5.0% |
Passing Downs
| Offense | Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Nat'l Avg. | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 102.3 | 63 | 108.9 | 42 | 100.0 |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 32.9% | 47 | 25.6% | 21 | 30.7% |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.66 | 90 | 1.82 | 79 | 1.77 |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.18 | 71 | 2.77 | 27 | 3.20 |
| PD Sack Rate | 9.2% | 94 | 7.7% | 61 | 7.5% |
Situational
| Offense | Defense | |||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | |
| Q1 S&P+ | 104.0 | 64 | 107.9 | 38 |
| Q2 S&P+ | 98.4 | 77 | 93.1 | 90 |
| Q3 S&P+ | 105.7 | 57 | 98.4 | 73 |
| Q4 S&P+ | 106.8 | 48 | 103.8 | 53 |
| 1st Down S&P+ | 100.8 | 66 | 95.4 | 88 |
| 2nd Down S&P+ | 114.2 | 31 | 103.2 | 61 |
| 3rd Down S&P+ | 95.3 | 86 | 110.4 | 40 |
Offensive Footprint
| Team | Rk | Nat'l Average | |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 67.6% | 25 | 60.4% |
| Pass Downs Run Rate | 42.2% | 20 | 34.0% |
| Adj. Pace | +4.4 | 22 | +0.0 |
| % of Solo Tackles | 80.0% | 26 | 74.9% |
Defensive Footprint
| Team | Rk | Nat'l Average | |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 50.3% | 125 | 60.3% |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 30.5% | 96 | 33.9% |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 18.4% | 27 | 16.0% |
| DL Havoc Rate | 6.5% | 30 | 5.1% |
| LB Havoc Rate | 3.4% | 90 | 4.5% |
| DB Havoc Rate | 8.2% | 14 | 6.3% |
| PD to INC | 33.9% | 53 | 32.8% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| Khari Lain | LB | 5'10, 185 | SO | 64.5 | 9.5% | 7.5 | 2.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Woodson | LB | 6'1, 214 | JR | 56.0 | 8.2% | 5.5 | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Cody Brown | DB | 6'2, 204 | JR | 52.5 | 7.7% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Rocky Hayes | DB | 5'11, 177 | SR | 41.5 | 6.1% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Humes | DB | 5'11, 207 | SR | 41.0 | 6.0% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Money Hunter | DB | 6'1, 193 | JR | 35.5 | 5.2% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Ja'Von Rolland-Jones | DE | 6'2, 224 | SO | 30.0 | 4.4% | 12.5 | 8.5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Charleston Girley | DB | 6'0, 196 | SR | 29.0 | 4.3% | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Copeland | LB | 6'1, 200 | SR | 28.5 | 4.2% | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Waylon Roberson | DL | 6'2, 338 | JR | 26.0 | 3.8% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Stone | DE | 6'3, 252 | SR | 23.5 | 3.4% | 7.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Justin Clifton | DB | 6'0, 207 | FR | 23.5 | 3.4% | 4.5 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Quanterio Heath | LB | 6'2, 210 | JR | 23.5 | 3.4% | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Blaise Taylor | DB | 5'9, 170 | SO | 21.5 | 3.2% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamaris Hart | DB | 5'9, 163 | SO | 20.5 | 3.0% | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Mondie | DL | 6'2, 321 | SR | 18.0 | 2.6% | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Robison | DL | 6'4, 234 | JR | 13.5 | 2.0% | 7.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nehemiah Wagner | DB | 6'0, 170 | SO | 11.5 | 1.7% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuks Ota | DL | 6'2, 285 | SO | 10.0 | 1.5% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caleb Caston | DE | 6'2, 210 | SO | 9.0 | 1.3% | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrius Rosser | DL | 6'3, 284 | JR | 8.0 | 1.2% | 6.5 | 3.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tajhea Chambers | LB | 6'2, 215 | FR | 8.0 | 1.2% | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bo Sentimore | DB | 6'0, 181 | JR | 8.0 | 1.2% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarrod Chandler | LB | 6'2, 205 | FR | 7.5 | 1.1% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Byner | RB | 5'11, 177 | SO | 7.0 | 1.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | |||||||||||
Special Teams
| Rating | Rank | |
| Special Teams S&P+ | 1.2 | 19 |
| Category | Rate | Rank |
| FG Value (per kick) | -0.06 | 80 |
| Punt Success Rate | 69.0% | 12 |
| Kickoff Success Rate | 81.9% | 26 |
| Punt Return Success Rate | 63.9% | 23 |
| Kick Return Success Rate | 65.9% | 7 |
| Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| JD Houston | 5'11, 165 | JR | 43-45 | 12-14 | 85.7% |
| Drew White | 5'8, 195 | JR | 19-20 | 1-3 | 33.3% |
| Luke Ferguson | 6'0, 210 | SR | 1-1 | 0-0 | #DIV/0! |
| Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Luke Ferguson | 6'0, 210 | SR | 72 | 42.7 | 6 | 23 | 33 | 77.8% |
| Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches |
Onside Att |
Onside Success |
| Luke Ferguson | 6'0, 210 | SR | 93 | 62.4 | 37 | 39.8% | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Tres Houston | 6'2, 188 | SR | 1 | 70.0 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Blaise Taylor | 5'9, 170 | SO | 24 | 13.4 | 1 | 15 | 1 (0) |
| Chris Murray | 5'9, 178 | JR | 10 | 9.1 | 0 | 5 | 3 (0) |
| Brandon Byner | 5'11, 177 | SO | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 (1) |
| Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| J.D. McKissic | 5'11, 193 | SR | 25 | 26.2 | 1 | 0 | 1 (1) |
| Tyler Trosin | 5'11, 180 | SR | 5 | 10.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 (0) |
| Blaise Taylor | 5'9, 170 | SO | 4 | 43.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics